Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Democratic Republic of the Congo 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 218M (May–Oct 2026)
Current Reach:	848,846 (March 2026)
Population IPC 3+:	24.8M Phase 3+ (observed Sep–Dec 2025); 26.7M projected (Jan–Jun 2026)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• DRC faces a compounding multi-hazard emergency: a Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak (the third-largest on record as of 23 July 2026, spanning 47 health zones across five provinces) is layered over an active armed conflict and a pre-existing food crisis of unprecedented scale.^[1]
• The AFC/M23-Rwanda military dynamic has suspended WFP humanitarian routing through Goma and Kavumu/Bukavu airports; alternative logistics corridors (Lake Tanganyika, overland via Burundi/Uganda) must be activated and sustained. The Washington Accord signed December 2025 is effectively stalled: Rwanda has rejected the DDR protocol and controls five of six agreed FDLR cantonment zones, making peace-contingent airport resumption implausible in the near term.^[2,3]
• Armed group movement from Rutshuru/Rwanguba toward Lubero and Ituri signals access deterioration spillover; eleven mass graves discovered in Sange and Luvungi (Uvira territory, Sud-Kivu) confirm ongoing atrocities and deepening protection risks.^[4]
• As of December 2025 (CSP third revision), WFP cancelled all helicopter lease contracts and closed both Goma and Bukavu airports, restructuring eastern DRC delivery entirely to ground corridors operating within active conflict.^[5]
• As of the 2025 OIG audit (covering Jan 2024–Jun 2025): donor contributions collapsed from USD 659M (2023) to USD 158M (2025, a 76% reduction); the audit rated DRC operations "Unsatisfactory" across governance, procurement, beneficiary identity management, and cooperating partner oversight — 8 of 13 observations classified high priority. An RRT vendor received USD 5.1M against USD 1.5M of recorded assets before UN ineligibility listing; 228,137 duplicate SCOPE records identified with 401 confirmed double-redemptions. These institutional vulnerabilities remain operationally live as remediation extends through June–December 2026.^[6]

Vulnerability Scale:

• As of March 2026, WFP reached 848,846 people — approximately 22% of the 3.9 million emergency food needs caseload and a fraction of 10 million displaced or forcibly returned persons nationwide.^[7]
• IPC data (Sep–Dec 2025 observed): 24.8 million in Phase 3+, 3.2 million in Phase 4. Projected Jan–Jun 2026: 26.7 million Phase 3+, 3.9 million Phase 4.^[8] ⚠ Both figures predate the Ebola outbreak declared 14 May 2026 and the conflict escalation in Q2 2026; actual current need is materially higher.
• Across Ebola-affected health zones: 2.63 million in IPC Phase 3+ as of 19 July 2026 (FSC Sitrep #8); 8 health zones classified IPC Phase 4; food assistance coverage is 7% of confirmed cases, 2% of suspect contacts, 0% of recovered cases.^[9]
• Child mortality from Ebola is catastrophic: CFR among infants under 1 year is 65.9%; among children aged 1–4 years, 57.8% — with malnutrition in affected areas explicitly cited as a contributing factor (WHO, data as of 26 July 2026).^[10]
• Response gaps in January 2026: Ituri 75%, Nord-Kivu 69%, Sud-Kivu 60%; specific health zones (Drodro, Fataki, Bambu, Tchomia in Ituri) at 100% gap. Effective coverage across the three provinces: approximately 32% of those targeted.^[11]
• Fourteen health zones have zero food assistance — 6 in Ituri, 1 in Nord-Kivu, 3 in Tshopo, 4 in Haut-Uélé; the latter two provinces have no SECAL response despite documented IPC 3+ populations.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• Trajectory: rapidly worsening. Ebola expanded from 29 health zones (10 June) → 36 (5 July) → 46 (19 July) → 47 (23 July 2026); spread to Kisangani (Tshopo), a major transport hub, sharply elevates wider transmission and operational risk. No vaccine exists for the Bundibugyo strain.^[1]
• As of 31 July 2026, media reports cite 3,532 cases and 1,556 deaths; WFP/WHO assessment as of 26 July records 47 health zones and an overall CFR of ~31%. Discrepancy noted — WFP/WHO figures adopted per lane authority; media figures not independently corroborated.^[10,12]
• Contact tracing at 78.2% against a 95% target; 3,376 contacts unseen in the last 24 hours; Haut-Uélé Province investigated 0.0% of alerts within 24 hours as of 26 July 2026 — a critical surveillance failure.^[10]
• North Kivu isolation bed occupancy at 136.2% (723 patients in 941 beds nationally) — surge capacity structurally exhausted.^[10]
• Food prices (May 2026): cassava +319% m/m, maize +69% m/m, palm oil +21% m/m, transport +25% m/m — severe market disruption threatening cash-based modality viability. Petrol +30%, diesel +29% in February 2026, inflating operational costs.^[11]
• ACLED (July 2026): 199 conflict events, 271 fatalities — events down 12% month-on-month but fatalities up 14%, including 69 civilian-targeting events (subset of political violence, not additive). Fatality rate suggests higher-intensity incidents despite lower event count.^[13]
• Rainfall deficit in 55 of 218 districts (worst: Lukula at 50% of normal), with confirmed agricultural stress in 7 districts — compounding food production risk in Nord-Kivu and Ituri.^[14]

WFP Operations:

• As of March 2026 (per WFP DRC Country Brief, April 2026): WFP reached 848,846 people (55% female), of whom approximately 714,000 were in the four conflict-affected eastern provinces; 113,921 received malnutrition prevention/treatment support; 109,054 schoolchildren received school meals; 31,887 received resilience/livelihood support in North Ubangi and Tanganyika.^[7]
• WFP has no operational presence in Tshopo and Haut-Uélé provinces, both newly Ebola-affected as of 19 July 2026. Kisangani (Tshopo) is a major transport hub; WFP presence there is required for both response and logistics cluster functions.^[1]
• Logistics Cluster activation for cold chain and transport support to health actors was assessed as an opportunity to be actioned within 48 hours (per WFP Ebola Response Situation Report, 30 June 2026) — status unconfirmed in current substrate.^[15]
• The e-voucher pilot (serving approximately 30,000 people in North Kivu per ACR 2025) and CBT to 160,941 people in Beni, Ituri, and Tanganyika face critical constraints: bank closures in Goma and Bukavu render CBT infeasible in the highest-need urban centres; market disruption in Ebola-affected zones (imported maize flour scarce in Beni, Butembo, Lubero, Rutshuru, Kalehe, Walungu) threatens viability and requires urgent shift toward local or alternative commodity sourcing.^[16,11]
• Previously (ACR 2025): SO1 exceeded 152.9% beneficiary achievement at 101.6% expenditure rate, driven by downward baseline revision and shortened assistance durations to stretch resources. SO2 reached 86.6% beneficiary achievement at 74.7% expenditure (commodity looting and insecurity disrupted nutrition activities). SO3 reached 55.1% beneficiary achievement at 65.8% expenditure due to access constraints and market disruption. SO4 achieved near-full expenditure (99.2%) but only 55% passenger beneficiary achievement due to Goma/Bukavu airport closures and fleet reduction from 8 to 4 aircraft. Cumulative CSP funding gap: 33.15% since CSP start (2021–2026).^[17]

Funding Outlook:

• Six-month Net Funding Requirement: USD 218M (May–October 2026) against total 2026 portfolio needs of USD 706.1M with only USD 235M funded — a structural shortfall placing WFP at critical pipeline break risk during the peak Ebola and conflict emergency period.^[7]
• USAID has officially closed (mid-2025); the Trump administration's successor model excludes most multilateral UN organisations. Previously (ACR 2025): the US government funding collapse was already the primary driver of WFP DRC's lowest funding level over the CSP lifetime (USD 182.5M in 2025, down from USD 659M in donor contributions in 2023 per the OIG audit).^[18,6]
• The Food Security Cluster estimates USD 22.3M required for the Ebola-specific food security response; the broader HNRP food security requirement is USD 621.9M (all partners), of which only 24% has been mobilised as of early July 2026.^[19]
• US withheld approximately USD 1.55 billion in UN regular budget dues for 2025–2026; WHO's access to Gavia-channelled US funding severed, further degrading the health-nutrition response architecture that WFP programming depends on in DRC.^[20]
• The "Unsatisfactory" OIG audit rating creates donor confidence risk. Proactive donor communications on the corrective workplan are required before the OIG report enters public circulation via the Executive Board.^[6]

In The News

• DRC-Rwanda Peace Talks at Impasse; FDLR Zones Under M23 Control (Actualité.cd): DRC confirmed 5 of 6 FDLR cantonment zones are under Rwanda/AFC-M23 control; Rwanda rejected the DDR protocol — making airport reopening and humanitarian access normalisation through peace-contingent mechanisms implausible in the near term.^[4]
• Maritime Chokepoints Threatened; Global Supply Chain Disruption (The New Humanitarian): US-Iran conflict disrupting Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden — threatening fuel and food supply chains for DRC import routes; combined with an anticipated 'super' El Niño projected to cost Africa USD 10–20 billion, WFP procurement and pipeline planning face compounding global shocks.^[2]
• USAID Officially Closed; Fragmented Successor Model Excludes Multilaterals (Devex): Structural confirmation that the primary US bilateral aid architecture has ceased; the replacement model excludes most UN-affiliated organisations, with European Commission/Swiss funding providing only partial offset — directly compounding DRC's USD 218M six-month funding gap.^[3]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Strategic	Ebola geographic expansion into areas with no WFP presence	Outbreak confirmed in Tshopo (Kisangani hub) and Haut-Uélé as of 19 July 2026; WFP has zero presence; 14 health zones have no food assistance of any kind; no vaccine for Bundibugyo strain; contact tracing at 78.2% vs 95% target	1. Conduct immediate feasibility assessment for WFP presence in Tshopo and Haut-Uélé within 48 hours. 2. Assess Logistics Cluster activation for cold chain/transport. 3. Deploy adapted in-kind modality (market disruption makes CBT non-viable in new zones).	Programme; Logistics; VAM	RBCA; Logistics Cluster; WHO	WFP Ebola Response SitRep 23 July 2026 (doc_id: 4222896); FSC Sitrep #8, 19 July 2026	High
Operational	Suspension of logistics routing through Goma and Kavumu/Bukavu airports	Airports suspended with no credible resumption timeline; peace process stalled (Rwanda rejected DDR, 5/6 FDLR zones under M23 control); alternative corridors via Lake Tanganyika and Burundi/Uganda must be sustained in active conflict environment	1. Activate and sustain alternative corridors immediately; pre-position stocks ahead of rainy season access windows. 2. Engage UNHCR/OCHA/EAC-SADC counterparts on airport advocacy within peace framework.	Logistics; Supply Chain; Security	RBCA; WFP Regional Bureau; UNHAS	WFP DRC Country Brief April 2026; CSP Third Revision Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4213003)	High
Financial	Critical funding gap against record humanitarian need	USD 218M NFR for May–Oct 2026; only 24% of HNRP food security requirement (all partners, USD 621.9M) mobilised; USAID closed; US withholding USD 1.55B in UN dues; OIG "Unsatisfactory" rating undermines donor confidence	1. Launch emergency donor engagement targeting EU, UK FCDO, Germany, CERF for the May–Oct window immediately. 2. Proactively brief major donors on OIG corrective workplan before Executive Board public release. 3. Pursue Flash Appeal mechanism if not already activated.	Partnerships; Resource Mobilisation	RBCA; HQ Donor Relations	WFP DRC Country Brief April 2026 (doc_id: 4213003); OIG Audit AR/25/25, Dec 2025	High
Operational	Market disruption forcing modality shift from CBT to in-kind	Cassava +319%, maize +69%, palm oil +21% m/m (May 2026); imported maize flour scarce in Beni, Butembo, Lubero, Rutshuru, Kalehe, Walungu; bank closures in Goma/Bukavu render CBT infeasible; fuel +30% (petrol)/+29% (diesel) inflating operational costs	1. Urgently review commodity procurement strategy — shift toward local sourcing from Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu production zones. 2. Assess market functionality in Tshopo and Haut-Uélé before any CBT deployment. 3. Factor fuel cost increases into all operational cost projections.	Supply Chain; VAM; Programme	FSC; WFP VAM	FSC Sitrep #8, July 2026; GTACQ Trends Jan–Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4223807)	High
Strategic	Elevated child mortality driven by malnutrition-Ebola interaction	CFR: infants <1 year 65.9%; children 1–4 years 57.8%; malnutrition explicitly cited as contributing factor by WHO (26 July 2026); SAM previously (Feb 2025) at 6% in South Kivu (3× emergency threshold); self-reinforcing cycle as labour capacity collapse deepens food insecurity	1. Integrate nutrition-sensitive food assistance targeting children under 5 into all Ebola response programming. 2. Coordinate with Health Cluster/UNICEF/WHO on combined malnutrition-EVD treatment protocols at health zone level.	Nutrition; Programme; Health Cluster coordination	UNICEF; WHO; RBCA	WHO Ebola Sitrep 11, 26 July 2026 (doc_id: 4223447); CSP Third Revision Dec 2025	High
Fiduciary	Institutional control failure — OIG "Unsatisfactory" rating	OIG audit (Jan 2024–Jun 2025, USD 635M operational costs): 228,137 SCOPE duplicates; 401 confirmed double-redemptions; off-CSP vendor USD 5.1M paid/USD 1.5M assets recorded (vendor UN-ineligibility listed Sep 2025); post-factum procurement = 12% of transactions (USD 60M); USD 21M commodity looted (30% insurance recovery). Corrective workplan extends June–Dec 2026	1. Emergency SCOPE deduplication — freeze card printing in high-duplication areas pending HQ Technology Division audit mission within 30 days. 2. Proactive donor briefing before Executive Board circulation. 3. Dedicated SMT corrective action monitor with monthly progress reporting to RBCA.	Governance; Finance; Compliance	HQ OIG; HQ Technology Division; RBCA	OIG Audit AR/25/25, Dec 2025; WFP Management Response, Feb 2026	High
Strategic	Tripartite coordination gap across DRC-Uganda-South Sudan Ebola corridors	High regional propagation risk via active cross-border displacement corridors; Uganda closed at 20 confirmed cases; South Sudan at Tier 1 preparedness; WFP flags coordination gap between DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan — operational status of tripartite mechanism unconfirmed	1. Operationalise tripartite mechanism (DRC CO under RBCA; Uganda and South Sudan under RBN) with confirmed responsibilities within 30 days. 2. Embed cross-border food security and displacement protocols within existing tripartite health architecture rather than creating parallel WFP mechanism.	Programme; Partnerships; Cross-border coordination	RBCA; RBN; IFRC	WFP Ebola Response SitRep 30 June 2026 (doc_id: 4219233); IFRC South Sudan DREF Update (doc_id: 4223890)	High
Operational	ADF/Wazalendo armed group activity blocking access in Haut-Uélé and North Kivu	ADF massacres and Wazalendo extortion documented in Beni/Lubero (North Kivu) blocking agricultural access; Haut-Uélé supply corridor to Uganda/Mombasa trade route fully closed; ADF-driven displacement of 28,000+ in Haut-Uélé; 0% Ebola alert investigation in Haut-Uélé on 26 July 2026	1. Coordinate with WFP Ituri sub-office and Ituri Provincial Access Forum on access deterioration spillover. 2. Identify alternative supply routing for Haut-Uélé bypassing closed Uganda corridor. 3. Elevate surveillance failure in Haut-Uélé to OCHA and health cluster for emergency response.	Access; Security; Logistics	OCHA; UNDSS; Ituri Provincial Access Forum	Radio Okapi, 27 July 2026 (ref://21); News intelligence, 31 July 2026 (ref://43)	High

Note: More than 369 documents were reviewed from the period May 2025–August 2026. Intelligence is current as of 3 August 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Ebola deaths and health zone count: WFP/WHO Situation Report 11 (data as of 26 July 2026) records 47 health zones and an overall CFR of ~31% across 1,406 confirmed cases as of 30 June 2026 — adopted as the authoritative WFP source; media sources (Radio Okapi, 31 July 2026; Al Jazeera, undated) cite 3,532 cases, 1,556 deaths, and 49 health zones as of 31 July 2026, representing approximately one week of additional spread and not independently corroborated through WFP internal reporting. Both are reported in the brief with appropriate sourcing; the higher media figures likely reflect real outbreak growth rather than a data conflict, but cannot be verified against a WFP internal document of equivalent date.

Footnotes

1. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — External Situation Report (23 July 2026) — WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222896)
2. Actualité.cd, 30 July 2026 — Washington Accord stalled; FDLR zones under M23 control (ref://4); Actualité.cd, 25 July 2026 — analyst assessment of sustained hostilities (ref://5)
3. Actualité.cd, 30 July 2026 — Washington Accord implementation (ref://7); Actualité.cd, 30 July 2026 — DDR protocol rejected by Rwanda (ref://9)
4. Radio Okapi, 28 July 2026 — Mass graves in Uvira territory, Sud-Kivu (ref://1)
5. WFP DRC CSP 2021–2026 Third Revision — WFP, December 2025 (csp://2021-2026)
6. WFP DRC Internal Audit Report AR/25/25 — WFP OIG, December 2025; WFP DRC Management Comments to Internal Audit — WFP, February 2026
7. WFP DRC Country Brief — WFP, May 2026 (covering March 2026 operations)
8. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis — IPC Global, September 2025
9. FSC Sitrep #8: CSA RDC Crise Ebola, 6–19 July 2026 — FAO/FSC/WFP, July 2026
10. Ebola Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak — Weekly External Situation Report 11, data as of 26 July 2026 — WHO, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223447)
11. GTACQ Trends January–March 2026 — REACH Initiative, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223807)
12. Radio Okapi, 31 July 2026 — Ebola exceeding 1,500 deaths (ref://6); Al Jazeera, undated — 3,442 cases, 1,556 deaths (ref://13)
13. ACLED via HDX — Conflict data, July 2026 (monthly aggregate)
14. WFP VAM Rainfall/Vegetation Anomalies — dekad to 11 July 2026
15. WFP Ebola Response Situation Report — WFP, 30 June 2026 (doc_id: 4219233)
16. WFP DRC Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2026 (acr://2025)
17. WFP DRC Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2026 (acr://2025)
18. Devex, 27 July 2026 — USAID officially closed (ref://3)
19. FSC Sitrep #7: CSA RDC Crise Ebola, 29 June–5 July 2026 — FAO/FSC/WFP, July 2026
20. Devex, 31 July 2026 — US withholds USD 1.55B in UN dues (ref://25); news intelligence, 30 July 2026 — WHO Gavi funding severed (ref://46)