Pakistan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Pakistan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 28.8M (Jun–Nov 2026 Nashonuma NFR window); CSP gap ~USD 243M against USD 787M total (2023–2027)
Current Reach:	362,000 women and children/month (Nashonuma, Jun 2026); 706,000 SAM children across 45 districts
Population IPC 3+:	10.55M in IPC Phase 3+ (20% of analysed pop., Mar 2026); 1.39M in Phase 4 — UP 40% vs Dec 2025 in percentage terms

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Pakistan is in an acute cost-of-living and supply shock phase. The national basic food basket reached PKR 15,831/month (USD 57) for a household of six — 4.5% above the 26 February pre-conflict baseline — after six consecutive weeks of increases since 30 April 2026, driven primarily by wheat flour at PKR 122/kg (+7%).^[1] Headline CPI surged to 10.9% YoY in April 2026 (up from 7.3% in March), with food inflation at 7.6% YoY.^[2]
• Fuel costs represent an acute operational pressure: HSD at PKR 380.2/litre (+47.0% YoY) and Super Petrol at PKR 393.4/litre (+54.5% YoY) as of April 2026 require urgent rebasing of trucking and last-mile delivery budgets — Balochistan and KP are most exposed given long inter-provincial supply chains.^[2] Note: VAM/HDX food price data (April 2026) records diesel at PKR 410/litre (+27% m/m) and petrol at PKR 368/litre (+19% m/m) — consistent in direction but divergent in magnitude from the WFP Market Monitor; WFP internal figures are treated as authoritative per lane hierarchy.
• Border closures with Afghanistan have disrupted agricultural produce, spice, cotton, and coal inflows, compounding domestic supply-side shocks. Escalating KP militant activity and ongoing Pakistan–Afghanistan cross-border military exchanges since October 2025 present compound operational and strategic risks to humanitarian corridors.^[3]
• Pakistan's FY2027 budget allocates 42.8% of federal expenditure to debt servicing, critically constraining government fiscal space for social protection co-financing.^[4] India's unilateral suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and acceleration of 17 upstream infrastructure projects introduces an emerging strategic threat to agricultural water security with downstream food security implications.^[5]
• The US-Iran ceasefire (signed 19 June 2026, mediated in part by Pakistan) temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz but remains fragile; renewed Iranian closure declarations on 20 June signal continued commodity price volatility affecting WFP procurement costs and Pakistan's energy import bill.^[6]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC March 2026 analysis places 10.55 million people (20% of the 53.4 million analysed population) in Phase 3+, including 1.39 million in Phase 4 Emergency — a 40% increase in the Phase 3+ share vs. December 2025 (7.54 million). The analysed population expanded significantly between analyses (35.6M → 53.4M), making percentage comparison more reliable than absolute figures. This analysis is now four months old; the monsoon season and sustained inflation since March 2026 likely place actual conditions worse than captured.^[7]
• As of early 2025 (per ACAPS June 2025 assessment), approximately 17 million people faced IPC Phase 3 or 4 nationally, with 6 million at Emergency level concentrated in KP and Balochistan where conflict constrains access — providing useful structural context for the March 2026 partial-coverage IPC.^[8]
• Chronic malnutrition remains severe: 40% stunting among children aged 6–59 months, placing Pakistan 106th of 123 on the Global Hunger Index. GAM in KP ranged 10.1–16.6% by district in 2023 SMART surveys, exceeding critical thresholds before any 2025–2026 shocks.^[9]
• From January 2025 to April 2026, approximately 1,335,800 Afghan nationals returned from Pakistan, of whom approximately 208,200 (15%) were forcibly deported. Torkham and Spin Boldak require active multi-agency reception coordination.^[10]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening: Six consecutive weeks of food basket price increases; CPI month-on-month acceleration from 1.2% (March) to 2.5% (April 2026); transport contributing 30% of YoY inflation; purchasing power erosion disproportionate for non-remittance-receiving households.^[1][2]
• Worsening: ACLED data shows June 2026 at 531 events and 403 fatalities — down 60%/46% month-on-month from May's 1,336 events/753 fatalities, but still above the 12-month average of 958 events/556 fatalities per month. Civilian targeting (54 events, 48 fatalities in June) remains a persistent access concern in KP and Balochistan.
• Seasonal risk: Pakistan flood contexts historically generate IPC Phase 3–4 conditions in Sindh and Balochistan riverine districts within 4–8 weeks of major inundation, with GAM exceeding 15% in worst-affected talukas. GDACS recorded a green-level flood event on 17 June 2026 — monsoon season is commencing. The urban Minimum Expenditure Basket stands at PKR 64,246/HH/month (National Cash Working Group endorsed); PRCS covered only ~70% of MEB in the 2025 monsoon response, leaving a confirmed food/multi-sector gap.^[11][12]
• Partially improving: ACLED conflict events fell sharply in June vs. May 2026; VAM/HDX April 2026 data shows wheat flour at PKR 110/kg (−4% m/m) and most staple foods flat or slightly down — but these April figures predate the six-week basket increase trend documented in the June WFP Market Report, confirming the deterioration is post-April.

WFP Operations:

• Nashonuma Programme: 558 facilitation centres serving 362,000 women and children monthly across 706,000 SAM children in 45 rural districts, against a USD 28.8M June–November 2026 NFR window. Any pipeline break would directly interrupt specialised nutritious food supply.^[13] As of January 2026, 4.1 million beneficiaries enrolled since 2020; 1 million have completed the 1,000-day cycle and graduated.^[14]
• Cash/voucher transfer values require immediate review against the PKR 15,831/month basket benchmark. Non-remittance-receiving households are most exposed to purchasing power erosion. A weekly monitoring cadence aligned to the PBS 68-market/17-district system should be formalised.^[1]
• Previously (per 2024 ACR): SO2 (nutrition/social protection) achieved 256.6% beneficiary-achievement rate at 127% expenditure rate, driven by multi-year BNP contributions booked in 2024. SO1 reached 80.6% beneficiary-achievement rate at 66.3% expenditure rate. SO4 achieved 135.2% beneficiary-achievement rate at 89.9% expenditure rate; SO5 underperformed at an expenditure rate of 12.4%.^[15]
• As of September 2024 (WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09), a non-functional community feedback mechanism — 248 calls across three provinces in 2023 from a programme serving 1.3 million beneficiaries — and single-source LNS procurement from one supplier since 2016 using superseded specifications were flagged as critical governance gaps. The operational effect of these audit findings remains live pending confirmed remediation.^[16]

Funding Outlook:

• CSP 2023–2027 total requirement: USD 787.3M; allocated contributions as of October 2025: ~USD 535M; gap ~USD 243M (31%). The six-month NFR as of November 2025–April 2026 was USD 25.78M.^[17] Current (June–November 2026) Nashonuma-specific NFR: USD 28.8M — pipeline status requires rolling monitoring.^[13]
• Previously (per 2024 ACR): available resources of USD 319.6M far exceeded the USD 111.2M implementation plan, largely due to the two-year BNP agreement (USD 193M) booked mid-2024 creating a USD 160M non-activity-specific balance. This buffer does not resolve the structural CSP gap and is not available for general programme use.^[15]
• Donor concentration risk: BISP (Government of Pakistan) represents the dominant funding source (~80% of 2024 planned activities per audit). Pakistan's FY2027 fiscal distress (42.8% debt servicing) may constrain government co-financing continuity. US contributions (PRM and USDA) carry policy-shift risk given the 2025 global US aid reduction trend.
• The IFRC Emergency Appeal (MDRAF018) for Afghan returnees is only 26% funded (CHF 5.3M raised against CHF 20M target as of 30 April 2026) — relevant to border reception co-financing and multi-agency reception planning at Torkham and Spin Boldak.^[10]

In The News

• Timeline: The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the war — here's how we got here (Dawn, Pakistan): Pakistan's PM Sharif played a visible mediating role in the US-Iran MOU; Strait of Hormuz reopening offers temporary relief to Pakistan's energy import costs and fuel-driven inflation, but sanctions relief remains unresolved and the ceasefire is fragile — leaving WFP procurement costs and operational delivery budgets exposed to renewed price spikes.^[6]
• Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and fragile ceasefire (Rappler): Iran's renewed closure declaration on 20 June 2026 — only days after the MOU — and ongoing Lebanon fighting signal that commodity price volatility for Pakistan's energy-import-dependent food system is unresolved; oil prices face renewed upward pressure when markets reopen, directly threatening WFP's operational cost base.^[3]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Cash transfer value erosion vs. sustained food basket inflation	Six consecutive weeks of increases bring the national basic food basket to PKR 15,831/month (4.5% above the Feb 2026 pre-conflict baseline); CPI at 10.9% YoY; non-remittance-receiving households are most exposed.	1. Immediately review CVA transfer values against PKR 15,831/month benchmark. 2. Formalise weekly monitoring cadence via PBS 68-market system.	VAM; Programme (CBT)	Regional Bureau Bangkok	WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report, 4 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215887)	High
Financial	Fuel cost spikes threatening operational cost projections	HSD +47.0% YoY (PKR 380.2/litre); Super Petrol +54.5% YoY (PKR 393.4/litre) as of Apr 2026. Balochistan and KP most exposed.	1. Urgently rebase all trucking, last-mile, and field mission cost projections. 2. Prioritise Balochistan/KP operational budgets for revision.	Logistics; Finance	Supply Chain Division	Pakistan Market Monitor Report, Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)	High
Fiduciary	Nashonuma pipeline break risk within Jun–Nov 2026 NFR window	USD 28.8M NFR window covers 362,000 women and children/month across 558 facilitation centres; any pipeline break interrupts specialised nutritious food supply to 706,000 SAM children in 45 districts.	1. Establish rolling pipeline status monitoring against the USD 28.8M NFR. 2. Flag to RBO for emergency bridging if contributions slip.	Programme (Nutrition); Finance	RBO; Donors	WFP Pakistan Country Brief, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)	High
Strategic	Afghan returnee/deportee caseload at Torkham and Spin Boldak	~1,335,800 Afghan nationals returned from Pakistan (Jan 2025–Apr 2026); 208,200 forcibly deported (15%). IFRC appeal only 26% funded.	1. Engage UNHCR, IOM, ARCS in joint reception planning for Torkham and Spin Boldak. 2. Coordinate with WFP Afghanistan CO on supply-route continuity and reception programming.	Programme; Coordination	RBO; WFP Afghanistan CO	IFRC MDRAF018 update, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4216738); IOM Bi-Weekly Report 16–31 May 2026 (doc_id: 4216856)	High
Operational	Monsoon flood risk generating acute food security deterioration	Historical precedent: IPC Phase 3–4 in Sindh/Balochistan riverine districts within 4–8 weeks of inundation; GAM >15% in worst talukas. GDACS green-level flood event 17 Jun 2026. Urban MEB PKR 64,246/HH/month; PRCS covered only ~70% in 2025.	1. Pre-position contingency plans for Sindh/Balochistan aligned to 4–8 week deterioration timeline. 2. Rebase cost-per-beneficiary for nutrition activities at current fuel/food price levels.	Programme; Logistics; VAM	NDMA; OCHA	OCHA Pakistan Flood Support Plan 2025 (doc_id: 4215331); IFRC DREF Final Report MDRPK028 (doc_id: 4214224)	High
Strategic	BISP partnership governance and single-donor concentration	As of September 2024 (Internal Audit AR/24/09): ~80% of planned activities dependent on BISP government funding; undefined technical targets; near-zero CFM functionality (248 calls/year for 1.3M beneficiaries). Pakistan's FY2027 debt-servicing burden (42.8% of federal budget) may constrain co-financing continuity.	1. Verify audit remediation status for CFM and coordination protocols. 2. Develop a partnership risk mitigation plan with alternative funding scenarios for RBO review.	Partnership; Finance; AAP	RBO; Internal Audit	WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09, Sep 2024 (doc_id: N/A — manual upload); Dawn, 15 Jun 2026	High
Fiduciary	LNS single-source procurement and specification non-compliance	As of September 2024 (Internal Audit AR/24/09): WFP procured LNS from one local supplier since 2016 using superseded pre-July 2023 corporate specifications without a formalised waiver; programme serves 1.3M pregnant/breastfeeding women and children.	1. Confirm waiver formalisation status and specification update compliance. 2. Initiate market assessment for alternative LNS suppliers to reduce supply concentration risk.	Supply Chain; Programme (Nutrition)	Supply Chain Division; Internal Audit	WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09, Sep 2024 (manual upload)	Medium
Financial	Strait of Hormuz volatility and global commodity price shock	US-Iran ceasefire (19 Jun 2026) fragile; Iran re-declared closure 20 Jun. ~20% of global oil and ~30% of fertiliser trade transits the strait. Sustained disruption would further inflate WFP procurement costs and Pakistan's food import bill beyond current CPI levels.	1. Monitor strait status on a 48-hour cycle and apply scenario pricing to procurement plans. 2. Engage supply chain division on forward procurement options for key commodities.	Finance; Logistics; Procurement	Supply Chain Division; RBO	Dawn 15 Jun 2026; Rappler 21 Jun 2026	Medium

Note: More than 147 documents were reviewed across WFP, IOM, IFRC, OCHA, FEWS NET, ACAPS, and news sources. The intelligence is current as of 22 June 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The WFP VAM/HDX food price feed (latest data: 15 April 2026) records wheat flour at PKR 110/kg and diesel at PKR 410/litre, while the WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report (4 June 2026) records wheat flour at PKR 122/kg and the WFP Market Monitor (April 2026) records HSD at PKR 380.2/litre; the HDX figures are six weeks older and predate the six-week upward trend, making the June Market Report authoritative for current basket analysis — both sources are directionally consistent but the HDX feed understates current price levels.

Footnotes

1. WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215887)
2. Pakistan Market Monitor Report April 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)
3. Pakistan — Flow Monitoring of Afghan Nationals — Bi-Weekly Report (16–31 May 2026) — IOM, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216856); KP militant activity and cross-border exchanges per news intelligence, June 2026
4. Dawn (Pakistan), "Pakistan FY2027 budget: debt servicing consumes 42.8% of federal budget," 15 June 2026
5. Dawn (Pakistan), "India suspends Indus Waters Treaty, accelerates upstream projects," 18 June 2026
6. Dawn (Pakistan), "Timeline: US and Iran reach preliminary agreement to end the war," 15 June 2026 (URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/2008018/timeline-the-us-and-iran-have-reached-a-preliminary-agreement-to-end-the-war-heres-how-we-got-here)
7. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, March 2026 — IPC, March 2026 (via HDX quantitative feed)
8. ACAPS — Pakistan: Key Crises to Watch in 2025 — ACAPS, June 2025 (manual upload, archival)
9. FEWS NET Targeted Analysis — FEWS NET, September 2025 (manual upload, archival); WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, September 2024 (manual upload, archival)
10. Afghanistan | Population Movement (Returnees) — Operation update #5 (MDRAF018) — IFRC, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216738)
11. OCHA Pakistan Flood Support Plan 2025, Response Summary (as of 8 June 2026) — OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215331)
12. Pakistan Monsoon Floods 2025 — DREF Final Report (MDRPK028) — IFRC, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214224)
13. WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)
14. WFP Pakistan Country Brief, January 2026 (covering January 2026 operations) — WFP, February 2026 (manual upload, archival)
15. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2024 — WFP, 2024 (manual upload, archival)
16. WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, September 2024 (manual upload, archival)
17. WFP Pakistan Country Brief, October 2025 (covering October 2025 operations) — WFP, November 2025 (manual upload, archival)