Chad Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Chad 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	HNRP 2026 (all partners): US$703M gap against US$986.1M requirement as of 30 Jun 2026; Food Security cluster requires US$155M with funding described as very limited. WFP-specific NFR not reported in available corpus.
Current Reach:	WFP reached 3.2 million people in 2025 (per ACR 2025). Q1 2026: WFP accounted for ~87% of FSC OS1 food assistance reach (193,800 beneficiaries). Current monthly WFP reach not reported in latest corpus.
Population IPC 3+:	2.98M projected Phase 3+ (proj., Jun–Aug 2026 window); 264K projected Phase 4

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Chad hosts approximately 1.5 million refugees — Africa's largest caseload — driven primarily by the Sudan conflict (onset April 2023), with ~927,915 Sudanese arrivals confirmed as of 17 May 2026 (UNHCR). Cross-border arrivals continue: 864 households (2,655 individuals) were interviewed at Chadian border entry points and transit sites during 1–15 July 2026 alone, with 44% reporting family members still stranded in Sudan, signalling sustained future arrival pressure.^[1][2]
• A secondary displacement front is active in Lac province (Fouli and Kaya departments), where military security operations have registered 10,065 households (60,390 persons) at reception sites as of early June 2026; figures remain provisional as population movements from island zones continue.^[3]
• The Sudan conflict's war economy directly intersects with Chad: gum arabic revenues are being captured by SAF, RSF, and armed groups and smuggled through Chad into global supply chains, per UN Human Rights Office findings — illustrating market distortion and access risks WFP faces along eastern border corridors.^[4]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, WFP's strategic ambition is a dual-track operation — emergency-dominated in the near term (56.7% of the US$2.6 billion five-year budget in crisis response) while transitioning toward resilience building. Government restrictions on border-point food distributions — documented in the ACR 2025 — remain an active operational constraint.^[5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Projected (Jun–Aug 2026 lean season): 2.98 million people in IPC Phase 3+ (16% of 18.07 million analysed), including 264,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency) — a 47% increase from the 2.16 million observed in the March–May 2026 current period.^[3][6]
• IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) is confirmed across Ennedi-Est, Wadi Fira (Dar Tama, Kobé), Ouaddaï (Assoungha), Sila (Kimiti), and Lac province through September 2026; Kanem and Barh El Gazel entered Phase 3 from June 2026 — expanding the crisis footprint westward beyond eastern provinces for the first time.^[7]
• At transit sites (1–15 July 2026): only 36% of newly arrived households report food access; 4% report health/nutrition access; 51–53% report WASH access. 56% reported human rights violations during flight, including 30% physical assault.^[1][2]
• Food prices confirm lean-season pressure: beans (niebe) +61%, sweet potatoes +146%, maize +19%, groundnuts +22%, rice +16% month-on-month as of May 2026 — compressing household purchasing power precisely when CBT modality accounts for 55.5% of FSC OS1 delivery.^[8]
• 87% of Sudanese refugee arrivals are women and children; 85.7% of GBV victims documented at displacement sites are refugees (138 women and girls), per Flash Update #53.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• ACLED data shows a sharp drop in recorded conflict events in July 2026 (1 event, 0 fatalities) versus the 13-month average of 21 events/32 fatalities per month. This statistical anomaly likely reflects reporting latency in eastern provinces rather than genuine stabilisation — eastern border insecurity continues to drive refugee influx per FEWS NET and OCHA.^[7][3]
• OCHA explicitly states "drastic humanitarian funding reductions" have caused organisations to reduce field presence (3W mapping, July 2026). Partner coverage in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Lac is confirmed but contracting, and the accelerated relocation programme stands at 64% completion (25,676 individuals of 40,000 FHRAOC-financed target since 15 April 2026).^[10][11]
• A confirmed 2026 El Niño event (NOAA, 9 July 2026) explicitly cites Chad among affected geographies — compounding lean-season food insecurity and threatening the rainy-season harvest outlook.^[12]

WFP Operations:

• WFP general food distributions are confirmed ongoing at transit sites and in eastern provinces but no tonnage, ration sizes, or beneficiary reach data are reported in the July 2026 corpus — a critical visibility gap given the scale of unmet need.^[9]
• Per ACR 2025: WFP reached 3.2 million people (55% female). SO1 (crisis response) reached 72% beneficiary achievement rate at 113% expenditure rate; the lean season response reached only 120,000 of the most vulnerable against an initial target — a severe performance gap the ACR attributes to Government restrictions on border-point distributions and CBT liquidity shortages in remote areas. SO2 (school feeding) reached underperformance at 61% expenditure rate, consolidating from 545 to 464 schools. SO4 (anticipatory action/social protection) exceeded plan: 118% beneficiary achievement rate at 155% expenditure rate, driven by BMZ/KfW and World Bank pre-financing.^[5]
• FSC Chad Q1 2026 Response Dashboard: WFP (PAM) accounted for ~87% of OS1 food assistance reach (193,800 beneficiaries) and ~87% of OS2 livelihoods/CFW reach (180,300 beneficiaries) — making WFP the single non-redundant actor in cluster delivery. Only 25% of the 1.6 million targeted people were reached in Q1 (409,308 unique beneficiaries). OS3 (anticipatory action) reached 2% coverage (6,296 of 332,000 targeted).^[13]
• UNHAS budget was reduced 25% (from US$23.6M to US$18.5M) and fleet reduced from 4 to 3 Dash-8 aircraft in 2025, constraining access to remote eastern locations.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• HNRP 2026 (all partners): US$986.1 million requirement, funded at 28.7% as of 30 June 2026 — gap of approximately US$703 million. Food Security cluster requirement: US$155 million with available funding described as "very limited."^[3]
• Sudanese Emergency Interagency Regional Refugee Response Plan: requested US$567.7 million; only 18% received — gap of approximately US$465.5 million.^[9] Note: source documents disagree on the plan period (January–March 2026 vs. January–December 2025 in the French version); the financial figures are consistent across both.
• FSC Q1 2026 dashboard explicitly cites a funding freeze as a major constraint, with only 33% of the US$154 million HRP food security budget received (~US$103 million gap). WFP's concentration as the dominant actor means any pipeline disruption collapses cluster-level response — there is no meaningful partner redundancy.^[13]
• The 2024–2028 CSP cumulative funding gap stands at 21% since CSP start. The ACR 2025 notes the CSP appeared fully funded at US$439.8 million in annual needs, but earmarked contributions created significant SO-level disparities and late confirmations limited seasonal implementation — the operational impact was worse than the headline funding rate suggests.^[5]
• The Sahel-wide funding environment is deteriorating: the 2026 Sahel HNRP (all countries) was only 21.1% funded as of May 2026 (US$786.2M of US$3.73B). WFP's CSP explicitly acknowledges Sahel funding is expected to decrease over the next five years while humanitarian needs increase.^[14]

In The News

• Sudan crisis: hunger overtakes violence as primary displacement driver from Darfur (news, 2026-07-19): A qualitative shift — hunger now driving displacement more than direct violence — directly increases Chad's refugee arrival pressure from Darfur, where RSF operations continue. WFP Chad pipeline planning must account for sustained high-volume inflows into Wadi Fira, Ouaddaï, and Ennedi Est.^[15]
• El Niño confirmed by NOAA, Chad among explicitly cited geographies (news, 2026-07-17): A "very strong" 2026 El Niño validated on 9 July 2026 compounds lean-season food insecurity projections and threatens the upcoming harvest. WFP's anticipatory action instruments (currently at 2% coverage) and rainy-season logistics planning require immediate review.^[12]
• Sudan RSF/SAF conflict: active pressure on El-Obeid and Kordofan corridor (news, 2026-07-16): RSF pressure on El-Obeid threatens the primary humanitarian logistics node linking Darfur, Kordofan, and central Sudan. Disruption would further accelerate cross-border refugee flows into eastern Chad and constrain WFP Sudan–Chad cross-border coordination.^[16]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Severe humanitarian funding gap threatening food pipeline continuity	HNRP 2026 funded at 28.7% (US$703M gap); Food Security cluster at US$155M requirement with "very limited" funding; FSC OS1 HRP budget only 33% received. WFP is non-redundant actor (~87% OS1 reach) — pipeline disruption collapses cluster response.	1. Launch emergency donor mobilisation targeting food security sector gap within 30 days. 2. Prepare contingency targeting triage (worst-first geographic and population-group prioritisation) to guide ration/caseload decisions under sustained underfunding.	Programme, Partnerships, Supply Chain	Regional Bureau, HQ Resource Mobilisation	OCHA Bulletin humanitaire mai-juin 2026 (doc_id: 4221764); FSC Chad Q1 2026 Response Dashboard (fscluster.org, Jun 2026)	High
Operational	Critically low food access at transit sites for newly arrived Sudanese refugees	Only 36% of 864 newly interviewed households (2,655 individuals, 1–15 Jul 2026) report food access at Chadian border entry points. WFP distributions confirmed ongoing but unquantified; 64% of arrivals have no food access. Priority provinces: Wadi Fira (44% of arrivals), Ouaddaï, Ennedi Est (22%).	1. Quantify WFP distribution reach, ration sizes, and pipeline against the arriving caseload within 15 days. 2. Scale transit site food assistance in Wadi Fira, Ouaddaï, and Ennedi Est as immediate geographic priorities. 3. Formally engage CIAUD/UNHCR/CRT border monitoring mechanism for data-sharing.	Programme, Logistics, VAM	UNHCR, CIAUD, CRT	P21 – Chad Sudanese Emergency Protection Situation of New Arrivals, 01–15 Jul 2026 (doc_ids: 4221829, 4221830); Flash Update #53 (doc_id: 4221683)	High
Strategic	Expanding IPC Phase 3 footprint and lean season compounding refugee pressure	Projected 2.98M in Phase 3+ (Jun–Aug 2026), up 47% from 2.16M observed. Kanem and Barh El Gazel newly entered Phase 3 (June 2026), expanding crisis footprint westward. Simultaneous refugee caseload and lean season create compound resource gap.	1. Ensure WFP Sudan–Chad joint pipeline and analysis coordination, given RSF border operations directly generate new displacement into eastern provinces. 2. Prioritise host community assistance in border districts to prevent system collapse and social tension.	Programme, VAM, Partnerships	FEWS NET, WFP Sudan CO	FEWS NET Key Message Update Chad, May–Sep 2026 (doc_id: 4216151); OCHA Bulletin (doc_id: 4221764)	High
Operational	Reduction in humanitarian field presence due to drastic funding cuts	OCHA explicitly states "drastic humanitarian funding reductions" have caused organisations to reduce field presence (3W, Jul 2026). Accelerated relocation programme at 64% of 40,000 target risks stalling. Eastern province coverage contracting at peak lean season.	1. Engage dense partner network in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, Lac (PAM, UNHCR, IRC, NRC, MSF, OIM) to coordinate coverage maintenance under funding constraints. 2. Advocate with donors with evidence of operational deterioration from 3W mapping.	Programme, Partnerships	OCHA, UNHCR	Tchad 3W Présence opérationnelle des partenaires, Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221836); Accelerated relocation report, 11 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221686)	High
Strategic	Border access risk and cross-border coordination gap with Sudan	WFP cross-border assistance from Chad into Sudan faces risk of unilateral border closure (documented risk per WFP Chad Country Brief, March 2026). RSF operations on the border directly generate displacement into Wadi Fira, Ouaddaï, and Sila. El-Obeid logistics node under active RSF pressure.	1. Maintain active Government of Chad engagement on border access protocols. 2. Formalise WFP Sudan–Chad joint analysis and pipeline coordination as an operational priority within 30 days.	Programme, Government Relations, Supply Chain	WFP Sudan CO, Government of Chad	WFP Chad Country Brief, March 2026 (doc_id: 4204809); FEWS NET (doc_id: 4216151)	High
Operational	WFP concentration risk: no meaningful partner redundancy in cluster delivery	WFP accounts for ~87% of FSC OS1 food assistance and ~87% of OS2 livelihoods reach. Only 7 organisations reporting under OS1, 8 under OS2, 3 under OS3. Any WFP pipeline disruption directly collapses cluster-level response.	1. Use cluster leadership to onboard additional partners, particularly national NGOs (only 1 national NGO per OS currently reporting). 2. Strengthen sub-contracting through implementing partners in priority eastern departments.	Programme, Partnerships	FSC, OCHA	FSC Chad Q1 2026 Response Dashboard (fscluster.org, Jun 2026)	Medium
Financial	CBT modality vulnerability to food price shocks	55.5% of OS1 and 90% of OS2 are cash-based. Beans +61%, sweet potatoes +146%, maize +19% month-on-month as of May 2026. If market functionality deteriorates further under lean season pressure, purchasing power of CBT beneficiaries collapses. UNHAS fleet reduced to 3 aircraft, constraining remote access for alternative in-kind delivery.	1. Monitor market functionality and price levels monthly in eastern provinces; establish price-spike trigger thresholds for modality switching. 2. Pre-position in-kind contingency stocks in accessible locations before peak rainy season road closures.	VAM, Supply Chain, Programme	WFP VAM	WFP VAM food price data, May 2026; ACR 2025 (CBT liquidity constraints, remote area delivery)	Medium
Strategic	El Niño compound shock on harvest and lean season outlook	NOAA confirmed "very strong" 2026 El Niño on 9 July 2026; Chad explicitly cited as affected geography. Threat to upcoming rainy-season harvest could extend or deepen Phase 3+ conditions beyond the August 2026 projection window. Anticipatory action currently at 2% coverage (6,296 of 332,000 targeted).	1. Immediately assess whether WFP Forecast-based Financing and MPCA pre-positioning instruments can be activated at scale ahead of harvest period. 2. Commission updated seasonal outlook integrating El Niño signal into lean season and post-harvest food security projections.	VAM, Programme, Supply Chain	WFP HQ Climate Centre, FEWS NET	NOAA El Niño confirmation, 9 Jul 2026 (ref://28); FSC Q1 2026 Dashboard	Medium

Note: More than 194 documents were reviewed from the period March–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Total Sudanese refugee arrivals carry two inconsistent framings across sources: an April 2026 advocacy note (doc_id: 4208664) cites ~920,000 arrived since 2023 within a total of 1.3 million; FEWS NET (data as of 14 June 2026, doc_id: 4216151) cites 927,915 as of 17 May 2026 (UNHCR); WFP Country Briefs (docs 4204809, 4209630) cite approximately 1.5 million total refugees — these figures reflect different reference dates and population definitions (arrivals since 2023 vs. total refugee stock including pre-2023 cohorts and returnees) and should not be aggregated; the 1.5 million total is used in this brief as the WFP-primary figure and represents the full refugee caseload, not only post-April 2023 arrivals. Additionally, the Sudanese Emergency Response Plan period is cited as "January–March 2026" in Flash Update #53 (doc_id: 4221683) and "January–December 2025" in the French version (doc_id: 4221682) — the financial figures (US$567.7M requested, 18% received, ~US$465.5M gap) are consistent across both; the plan-period discrepancy cannot be resolved from available sources.

Footnotes

1. P21 – Chad | Sudanese Emergency | Protection Situation of New Arrivals, 01–15 July 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221829)
2. P21 – Tchad | Urgence soudanaise | Situation de Protection des nouveaux arrivants, 01–15 juillet 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221830)
3. Tchad – Bulletin humanitaire | mai-juin 2026 — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221764)
4. Sudan's war economy and gum arabic supply chains — UN Human Rights Office, cited in The New Humanitarian, July 2026 (ref://1)
5. WFP Chad Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — WFP, 2025
6. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, Nov 2025 (projection Jun–Aug 2026 window) — IPC, analysed population 18,070,731
7. Chad – Key Message Update: Persistent insecurity deteriorating food security conditions in eastern and Lac provinces, May–September 2026 — FEWS NET, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216151)
8. WFP VAM food price monitoring, national average, May 2026 — WFP VAM via HDX
9. Flash Update #53 New Sudanese Refugee Influx into Chad — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221683)
10. Tchad: Présence opérationnelle des partenaires (3W) juillet 2026 — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221836)
11. Accelerated Relocation of Sudanese Refugees in Eastern Chad — UNHCR/OCHA, 11 July 2026 (doc_id: 4221686)
12. El Niño confirmed by NOAA, 9 July 2026 — news, July 2026 (ref://28)
13. TCHAD: Dashboard Suivi de la réponse des acteurs de la sécurité alimentaire (janvier–mars 2026) — FSC Chad, June 2026 (https://fscluster.org/chad/document/tchad-dashboard-suivi-de-la-reponse-des)
14. Sahel 2026 Humanitarian Needs & Requirements Overview (May 2026) — OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214524)
15. Sudan crisis: hunger overtakes violence as primary displacement driver from Darfur — news, 19 July 2026 (ref://11)
16. Sudan RSF active pressure on El-Obeid and Kordofan corridor — news, 16 July 2026 (ref://19)