Zambia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Zambia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 3.52M (Jul–Dec 2026)
Current Reach:	260,407 people (Jun 2026)
Population IPC 3+:	1,701,303 (proj., Oct 2025–Mar 2026, 17% of analysed pop.)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Zambia's food security situation is currently moderate, underpinned by a record ~5 million mt maize harvest in 2025/26. FEWS NET classifies western and eastern Zambia at IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) for June–September 2026, with Minimal (Phase 1) conditions elsewhere.^[1] The structural picture remains fragile: only 14% of arable land is under cultivation, and 77% of rural residents live in poverty per the 2023–2028 CSP.^[2]
• The dominant near-term operational risk is a funding cliff at Mantapala Refugee Settlement. Current funding covers refugee cash-based transfers only through October 2026; without USD 3.52 million mobilised before that date, assistance to 9,249 refugees lapses entirely with no identified fallback pipeline.^[3]
• A severe seasonal rainfall deficit has emerged: as of the dekad to 11 July 2026, 40 of 103 districts recorded 3-month rainfall below 75% of normal, with Mpulungu at 52% of normal across Central, Copperbelt, and North-Western provinces. Vegetation indices remain near normal, indicating the deficit has not yet impacted crops — but this is a watch-level signal ahead of the next planting season.^[4]
• The DRC-Zambia border carries an unresolved displacement spillover risk. Tanganyika province (bordering Zambia's Luapula/Northern provinces) recorded 41,000 new IDPs since January 2026, within a broader DRC displacement caseload exceeding 3.4 million. Deteriorating security — with M23 assessed as potentially expanding toward Fizi, Baraka, and Katanga — could generate new arrivals at Mantapala at precisely the moment its funding pipeline is critically strained.^[5][6]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The IPC projected 1,701,303 people (17% of the analysed population) at Phase 3+ for October 2025–March 2026, with 9,907 at Phase 4 (Emergency).^[7] An updated IPC analysis was completed but results were not yet published as of the July 2026 Country Brief — the projected figure remains the operative planning anchor.^[3]
• Under the previous (2025 ACR) cycle, WFP reached 2,481,312 total unique beneficiaries and insured over 1 million smallholders with USD 200 million sum insured; refugee rations were constrained to 70% of entitlement due to funding shortfalls.^[8]
• Young Zambians explicitly name food security as among the sectors most visibly affected by USAID dissolution, per the African Youth Survey 2026 — corroborating the structural vulnerability of WFP's resource base to US aid contraction.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• Post-harvest macroeconomic relief is visible but fragile: annual inflation declined from 6.6% (May) to 6.5% (June 2026), food inflation at 6.7%, and the national food basket cost fell from USD 91.37 to USD 89.05. The Kwacha held at approximately ZMW 18.1/USD in June 2026.^[3] However, ACAPS data indicates the Kwacha has depreciated nearly 5% since the onset of the Middle East conflict — a currency risk to watch as lean season approaches.^[10]
• ACLED recorded zero conflict events and zero fatalities in Zambia in July 2026, down from 5 events and 2 fatalities in June. The 12-month average is 3 events/month — Zambia's conflict environment remains low-risk domestically.^[4]
• A Southern Africa-wide lean season surge from October 2026 — estimated at 22–23 million people across seven countries — will intensify competition for regional logistics corridors and donor funding simultaneously with Zambia's own funding cliff.^[11]
• The AfDB warns that a converging "super" El Niño could impose USD 10–20 billion in economic losses across Africa and double maize prices — compounding Zambia's structural vulnerability heading into the 2026/27 agricultural season.^[12]

WFP Operations:

• In June 2026, WFP assisted 260,407 people (37% female), distributing 6,772 mt of food and USD 106,498 in cash-based transfers.^[3]
• General Food Assistance reached 210,087 people across eight districts in Western and Southern Provinces under the lean season response (6,227.70 mt maize, 544.49 mt beans). Mantapala Refugee Settlement received USD 106,498 in cash-based transfers for 9,249 refugees.^[3]
• Previously (April 2026): WFP assisted 252,753 people (60% female) with 6,217.73 mt food and USD 57,614.85 in cash-based transfers; Mantapala supported 8,804 refugees.^[13] The increase in cash transfers to refugees between April and June reflects a caseload increase at Mantapala (from 8,804 to 9,249) — a trend that, if continued, will further stretch the October deadline.
• Under the 2023–2028 CSP, ELSAM (EC-funded) supported 17,500 smallholder farmers (59% women) with climate-smart agriculture, mobilising 407 savings groups generating USD 123,744 and onboarding 3,000 sorghum farmers onto agricultural insurance.^[14] Preparations for a South-South learning exchange with Namibia on Home-Grown School Meals are underway, positioning Zambia as a regional model.^[3]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 achieved 139.9% expenditure rate and 120% beneficiary achievement rate, driven by carry-over drought response. SO2 reached only 49.6% expenditure rate and 45.3% beneficiary achievement rate due to phased multi-year EU/KfW contributions. SO4 reached 161.6% expenditure rate, driven by time-limited contributions from France, Japan, and Finland.^[8]

Funding Outlook:

• Action-forcing deadline: USD 3.52 million must be secured before October 2026 or Mantapala refugee cash assistance lapses entirely. The CSP (2023–2028) total portfolio stands at USD 23.4 million with USD 18.69 million funded to date (as of May 2026 Country Brief), leaving a cumulative CSP funding gap of approximately 11.4%.^[13][8]
• The global donor environment is deteriorating. Major donor funding has declined sharply since 2024 (ALNAP, July 2025), and UK bilateral aid to Zambia faces near-total elimination by 2028 — from K117.9 billion to K11.7 billion — directly reducing complementary programme delivery capacity.^[10][15]
• In 2025, WFP spent USD 35.50 million against a plan of USD 27.95 million (127% expenditure achievement), driven by one-time contributions from Finland, France, Japan, China, Russia, Ireland, and WHO that are not reliably renewable. This creates a structural funding volatility risk for 2026 planning.^[8]
• Diversification remains the primary mitigation. The existing donor base (Church of Latter-Day Saints, EU, Germany, China, Japan) should be targeted for the USD 3.52 million gap; climate financing streams and IFI mechanisms identified in the CSP are medium-term avenues.^[2]

In The News

• M23 Conflict Stalemate and Katanga Expansion Risk (Actualité.cd, 2026-08-01): Political analyst Moleka assesses M23 may test advances toward Fizi, Baraka, and Katanga — opening a new displacement front with direct implications for cross-border flows into northern Zambia and Mantapala's already-strained caseload.^[6]
• Washington Accord Stalled: FDLR Zones Under Rwanda/M23 Control (Actualité.cd, 2026-07-30): DRC government confirms five of six agreed FDLR disarmament zones are under Rwanda/AFC-M23 control, signalling prolonged conflict and sustained displacement pressure on the Tanganyika–Zambia border corridor.^[5]
• African Youth Survey 2026: USAID Dissolution Impacts Food Security (news, 2026-07-30): Young Zambians explicitly name food security as the sector most visibly impacted by USAID dissolution — corroborating the vulnerability of WFP Zambia's resource base to sustained US aid contraction.^[9]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Mantapala Funding Cliff — October 2026	USD 3.52M must be secured before October 2026 or cash-based transfers to 9,249 refugees at Mantapala lapse entirely. No fallback pipeline identified.	1. Country Director to initiate emergency donor outreach immediately targeting existing base (EU, Japan, China, Germany). 2. Escalate to Regional Bureau for emergency bridge funding options before September 2026.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation, Country Direction	RBN/RBJ, HQ donors division	WFP Zambia Country Brief July 2026 (doc_id: 4222898); WFP Zambia Country Brief May 2026 (doc_id: 4214989)	High
Strategic	Regional Lean Season Surge Competing for Funding and Logistics	October 2026 onset of El Niño response across 7 Southern Africa countries (est. 22–23M people at peak) will create simultaneous competition for transport corridors, commodities, and donor attention.	1. RBN/RBJ to coordinate pre-positioning and logistics allocation across country offices before October. 2. Zambia CO to front-load donor advocacy before regional competition intensifies.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Resource Mobilisation	RBN/RBJ, WFP Logistics	FEWS NET Southern Africa Food Security Outlook June 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4223793)	High
Operational	Cross-Border Displacement Spillover from DRC	M23 expansion risk toward Katanga and 41K new IDPs in Tanganyika province since January 2026 could expand Mantapala caseload beyond current planning — at the moment funding is already critically constrained.	1. Monitor DRC displacement in Tanganyika/Haut-Katanga as leading indicator for new Mantapala arrivals. 2. Pre-plan contingency caseload scenario (e.g. +10–15% intake) within current budget envelope.	Protection, Programme, Supply Chain	UNHCR, RBN	DRC Humanitarian Key Figures June 2026 (doc_id: 4221295); DRC Access Constraints Analysis March 2026 (doc_id: 4223424); Actualité.cd, 2026-08-01 (ref://3)	High
Strategic	IPC Planning Anchor Outdated	Updated IPC analysis completed but unpublished as of July 2026 Country Brief. All targeting uses October 2025–March 2026 projection (1.7M Phase 3+), risking mis-calibrated beneficiary scale.	1. Monitor for IPC release (expected July 2026) and immediately trigger operational planning revision upon publication. 2. Flag planning uncertainty to donors to protect against downward recalibration surprises.	Programme, VAM, Resource Mobilisation	VAM, HQ	WFP Zambia Country Brief July 2026 (doc_id: 4222898)	Medium
Financial	Global Donor Funding Decline	Sharp decline in major donor funding since 2024 (ALNAP) and near-elimination of UK bilateral aid to Zambia reduce conventional donor outreach probability of closing the USD 3.52M gap.	1. Pursue non-traditional donors: climate financing streams (ARC, AfDB), IFIs, private sector per CSP partnership strategy. 2. Map 2025 one-time contributors (Finland, France, Japan) for renewable engagement.	Resource Mobilisation, Partnerships	HQ, RBN	ACAPS Middle East Conflict Global Impacts (doc_id: 4220874); WFP Zambia Country Brief May 2026 (doc_id: 4214989); ACR 2025 (acr://2025)	Medium
Operational	Seasonal Rainfall Deficit in 40 Districts	3-month rainfall below 75% of normal in 40/103 districts (worst: Mpulungu at 52%) as of July 2026. Vegetation indices still near normal — crops not yet impacted — but deficit threatens next planting season if unresolved.	1. Activate VAM monitoring protocol for Mpulungu and North-Western districts through September. 2. Pre-position contingency food stocks before October lean season onset.	VAM, Logistics, Supply Chain	WFP VAM, DMMU	WFP-VAM rainfall/NDVI anomalies (dekad to 2026-07-11)	Medium
Strategic	Structural Agricultural Underutilisation	Only 14% of arable land is under cultivation. Resilience programming (ELSAM, TERNIZA II) operates at sub-scale relative to structural need; reliance on favourable harvests for food security moderation is inherently fragile.	1. Use post-harvest window (current period of declining food basket costs) to advance climate-smart agriculture scale-up under ELSAM and Green Nexus. 2. Leverage HGSM–smallholder linkage model to expand market demand for smallholder output.	Resilience, Programme, Partnerships	FAO, Government of Zambia, EU	FEWS NET Zambia Food Security Outlook June 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4221050); CSP 2023–2028 (csp://2023-2028)	Medium

Note: More than 45 documents were reviewed covering the period April–August 2026. The intelligence is current as of 3 August 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Two net funding requirement figures appear for the May–October 2026 window in the April 2026 Country Brief (doc_id: 4211791): USD 2.1M (sidebar) and USD 2.39M (funding overview panel) — unreconciled within the document; USD 2.1M is the operative sidebar figure. Separately, the July 2026 Country Brief (doc_id: 4222898) reports CSP portfolio figures as both USD 19.71M and USD 23.4M without a per-programme breakdown — these cannot be reconciled from available substrate; the May 2026 figure of USD 23.4M total / USD 18.69M funded is used as the more detailed and consistent reference.

Footnotes

1. WFP Zambia Country Brief, July 2026 / FEWS NET Zambia Food Security Outlook June 2026–Jan 2027 — WFP/FEWS NET, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222898; doc_id: 4221050)
2. WFP Zambia Country Strategic Plan 2023–2028 — WFP, 2023 (csp://2023-2028)
3. WFP Zambia Country Brief, July 2026 — WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222898)
4. WFP-VAM rainfall/vegetation anomalies and ACLED conflict data — dekad to 2026-07-11 / July 2026
5. DRC Humanitarian Key Figures as of 30 June 2026 — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221295); DRC Analyse de la sévérité des contraintes d'Accès humanitaire, mars 2026 — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223424)
6. DRC-M23 conflict stalemate and Katanga expansion risk — Actualité.cd, 1 August 2026 (ref://3)
7. IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis, projection period October 2025–March 2026 — IPC, August 2025
8. WFP Zambia Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2025 (acr://2025)
9. African Youth Survey 2026: USAID dissolution impacts on food security — news, 30 July 2026 (ref://19)
10. Global Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East (ACAPS Thematic Report) — ACAPS, 10 July 2026 (doc_id: 4220874)
11. Southern Africa Food Security Outlook June 2026–January 2027 — FEWS NET, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223793)
12. AfDB super El Niño continental warning — news/AfDB, July 2026 (ref://23)
13. WFP Zambia Country Brief, May 2026 (covering April 2026 operations) — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214989)
14. WFP Zambia Country Brief April 2026 (covering March 2026 operations) — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4211791)
15. UK bilateral aid cuts to Zambia — news, 27 July 2026 (ref://26)