Hormuz-linked energy crisis drives up logistics costs and threatens food prices
PAK · IND · MMR · IDN · LKA · BGD
A global energy crisis, driven by conflict-related disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, is transmitting economic shocks across the region. Multiple curated news and analytical sources report that Brent crude has surpassed US$100/barrel, creating immediate pressure on import-dependent economies from Pakistan to Indonesia. Per WFP country assessments and media reporting, this is manifesting as fuel shortages in Myanmar and Bangladesh, government-led energy conservation measures in Sri Lanka, and threats of fertilizer shortages in India. The sustained price increases will inflate WFP’s operational costs for fuel and transport and risk triggering broader food price inflation, eroding the purchasing power of vulnerable households and the value of cash assistance.
Watchpoints:
- Brent crude price remains sustained above US$100/barrel into the week of 21 April.
- Governments of India, Pakistan, or Bangladesh announce new fuel rationing or import financing measures.
- Major shipping lines announce revised surcharges or route diversions for Asia-bound cargo.
Converging crises in Afghanistan risk catastrophic deterioration and regional spillover
AFG · PAK
Per a WFP country assessment, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is at an inflection point, with stabilizing factors failing simultaneously. A funding collapse, with WFP facing a US$650 million six-month gap, is forcing a scale-down of assistance just as needs are surging. This is driven by an unprecedented influx of returnees, with up to 2.1 million expected in 2025, and a drought now declared in 19 provinces. Cross-border supply chains are strained by closures at the Torkham border with Pakistan. The convergence of funding, climate, and displacement crises creates a risk of excess mortality in the coming winter and threatens to drive further irregular cross-border movements into Pakistan and Iran.
Watchpoints:
- Daily returnee figures at Iran-Afghanistan border crossing points exceed 30,000 for three consecutive days.
- Pakistan authorities announce formal start of 'Phase 3' deportations targeting registered PoR card holders.
- WFP Afghanistan confirms funding status for its US$650 million six-month requirement.
Impending Rakhine offensive threatens Sittwe humanitarian hub and new displacement
MMR · BGD
Per Crisis Group analysis, an offensive by the Arakan Army on Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State, is imminent. This marks a significant conflict escalation that would directly threaten a primary humanitarian hub for the region. An assault on the city would likely sever key logistics corridors, trigger large-scale displacement of a population of hundreds of thousands, and cut off access to existing camps. The country is already grappling with a nationwide fuel crisis that is crippling humanitarian logistics. An offensive on Sittwe poses an immediate, high-impact threat to WFP staff safety and all operations in central Rakhine, and could generate a new wave of refugees toward Bangladesh.
Watchpoints:
- Crisis Group or other monitors confirm start of large-scale Arakan Army ground operations against Sittwe.
- Humanitarian partners report significant new displacement from Sittwe township towards rural areas or Bangladesh.
- Myanmar authorities impose new movement restrictions on humanitarian traffic into or out of Sittwe.
Other notable
- Bangladesh: Per a WFP internal audit, findings of "Major improvement needed" for the country office create fiduciary and operational risk amid funding cuts for the Rohingya response.
- Cambodia: Per news reporting, a border conflict with Thailand has reportedly displaced over 200,000 people; however, ACLED data shows zero recorded events, suggesting a possible lag or gap in monitoring.
- Nepal: Per a WFP country assessment, a US$5.08 million funding gap threatens programme continuity for ~67,000 beneficiaries as the country faces cascading crises from recent drought, floods, and political unrest.
- Pakistan: According to SCMP and The Diplomat reporting, the UAE's withdrawal of US$3.5 billion has erased 21% of foreign reserves, increasing the risk of a balance of payments crisis and food import constraints.
- Philippines: Per a WFP country assessment, a US$89.31 million strategic plan funding gap jeopardizes climate resilience programming as recurrent cyclones risk trapping resources in emergency response.
- Sri Lanka: Recovery from devastating November floods that affected 2.2 million people is complicated by fuel rationing and economic pressure from the Hormuz crisis, per WFP and OCHA assessments.
- Timor-Leste: Per WFP VAM data, extreme food price inflation, including a 100% month-on-month rise in local rice prices, is worsening food affordability against a baseline of 47% child stunting.
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