Key Messages and Asks

• Bangladesh faces compounding shocks: northeastern haor flash floods, a measles outbreak elevating SAM risk, and Hormuz-driven food inflation at 9.06% — all hitting the same vulnerable populations WFP serves.
• The Rohingya caseload has grown to over 1.1 million with no repatriation pathway; the 2025–2026 Joint Response Plan carries a USD 284 million gap directly threatening Cox's Bazar food and nutrition entitlements.
• A 2025 funding surplus will not recur in 2026 — the CSP closes in December and structural resource pressure is rising as donor ODA constraints deepen.

ASKS

• Champion joint WFP-UNHCR advocacy on the USD 284 million Rohingya JRP gap with UK, US, and EC counterparts before the monsoon season peaks.
• Request RBB to stress-test cash transfer values against current 9.06% food inflation and confirm a formal transfer value review is completed before July 2026.
• Seek Executive Director visibility on the CSP end-date (December 2026) to signal continuity of the Rohingya response and national school feeding programme to the Bangladesh Interim Government.

Operations Overview

Key Figures:

WFP Presence:

• National Staff: / International:
• Number of Offices:
• Number of partners: UN / NGO
• UNHAS Presence:
• Other notable common services/ service provision:

Funding Overview (Cumulative CSP requirement to date (as reported in the 2025 ACR))

• The 2025 funding surplus (144% of annual needs) was driven by doubled in-kind contributions and carry-overs that will not recur; 2026 begins with a structural CSP gap and a Rohingya JRP that is only approximately 60% funded.
• UK ODA uncertainty following reported PM Starmer resignation and continued US aid constraints compound the donor environment at precisely the moment the CSP requires successor-plan resource mobilisation.

Context Overview

WFP response:

WFP Operations:

• In May 2026, WFP assisted over 1.17 million Rohingya refugees through the new vulnerability-based GFA model; emergency school feeding distributed fortified biscuits to nearly 249,000 Rohingya schoolchildren.
• Anticipatory action activated for haor flash floods targeting 505,000 people with USD 4.1 million; as of 30 April only 101,545 reached — a significant delivery gap requiring partner surge.
• National school feeding reached nearly 3 million students across 150 upazilas; nutrition services covered 17,100 children aged 6–59 months and 6,150 pregnant and breastfeeding women for wasting treatment.

Latest Updates:

• World Bank approved a USD 1.1 billion emergency package for Bangladesh on 27 June 2026 — USD 300 million for fertiliser imports and USD 713 million in cash transfers — confirming food security stress has reached IFI crisis-response threshold.
• Renewed US-Iran exchanges on 27–28 June have fractured the interim ceasefire, sustaining fertiliser, edible oil, and fuel price pressure that is directly eroding WFP cash transfer purchasing power in Bangladesh.
• Teesta River gauge is at severe danger level as of late June, with BMD/RIMES forecasting above-normal monsoon rainfall — anticipatory action protocols are active for Moulvibazar and Habiganj.
• A measles outbreak with 80% of cases in children under five is elevating SAM and Vitamin A deficiency risk across the same districts where WFP nutrition services operate.

Context Overview:

• Humanitarian needs: An estimated 15.3 million people are in IPC Phase 3+ (15% of the population; May 2026 analysis). Over 1.1 million Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar remain entirely aid-dependent, with 400,000 at Phase 4 Emergency. Eleven districts are at IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 3, including Cox's Bazar and haor-affected Sunamganj and Sylhet. Haor basin extreme poor report baseline calorie intake of only 1,860 kcal per day against a 2,100 kcal requirement, with shock-year income falling below the survival threshold.
• Political context: The Interim Government, in place since the August 2024 Monsoon Revolution, faces a February 2026 election cycle that has required continued WFP risk monitoring. Political instability previously delayed the national school feeding Development Project Proposal and social protection expansion. The World Bank's USD 1.1 billion emergency approval signals IFI confidence in the current government's capacity to absorb crisis financing, providing a partial stabilisation signal for WFP's enabling-government-systems agenda.
• Economic overview: Food inflation stands at 9.06% with eggs up 24.5% and fish up 5.2% — protein-rich foods rising fastest, directly eroding dietary diversity for WFP cash-based recipients. The Strait of Hormuz conflict is transmitting fertiliser, edible oil, and fuel import disruption simultaneously into Bangladesh. Rice and wheat flour are down approximately 2% month-on-month, providing a partial offset, but the staple-versus-protein price divergence is widening the nutrition adequacy gap for poor households.
• Regional context:
  • Hormuz disruption is transmitting fuel and food-basket cost increases across import-dependent operations from Pakistan to the Pacific; Bangladesh is among the most exposed given simultaneous fertiliser, edible oil, and fuel import dependency.
  • A Super El Niño forecast to peak November 2026 is compounding active rainfall deficits across South Asia; India's monsoon running 43% below average raises the risk of rice and pulse export restrictions that would directly affect WFP Bangladesh procurement costs.
  • Myanmar IDPs are trending toward 5.2 million by year-end with no repatriation pathway for Rohingya; Bangladesh remains the only viable humanitarian corridor for Rakhine State, sustaining caseload growth pressure on Cox's Bazar operations.

Actors of Influence:

Areas for Leadership Attention:

• Public reporting flags a 77% shortfall in host-community school feeding (approximately 29,797 reached against 131,000 planned) as the CSP approaches its December 2026 end-date, with the government's Development Project Proposal still inactive.
• Public reporting flags a January 2023 internal audit rating of 'Major improvement needed' for the Bangladesh Country Office; enhanced controls were introduced but fiduciary risk appetite should remain elevated given rapid Rohingya beneficiary expansion.
• Public reporting flags that WFP cash transfer values have not been formally reviewed against current 9.06% food inflation — a gap that, if unaddressed, risks real-terms entitlement erosion for over 1.1 million refugees.

Achievements/Success stories:

• In May 2026, nearly 3 million students received daily nutritious snacks under the national school feeding programme, marking the first full operational month of this flagship government partnership.
• The anticipatory action framework expanded coverage from 1 million to 1.6 million people over the CSP period; WFP is the largest single AA actor in the 2026 haor flash flood response.
• In 2025, fortified rice reached 16 million people and the first IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis for Bangladesh was conducted — both firsts for the country operation.

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