{ "country_code": "BGD", "run_date": "2026-06-24", "pipeline_run_id": "99b00c04-be9b-427d-83a1-868f0201fb07", "code_git_sha": "unknown", "proposals": [ { "change_proposal_id": "cc2ccf33-cff8-4086-a44e-e958c1655b72", "target_kind": "risk", "target_key": "BGD-R002", "change_type": "bundle", "justification": "SMART/validity: 2 mitigation rewrite(s) proposed for BGD-R002; each change names its failed SMART sub-dimension(s).", "evidence_ci_id": null, "evidence_excerpt": "", "diff": { "BGD-M002": { "after": { "mitigation_action": "Develop and deliver a targeted funding-outreach package for a minimum of five non-traditional donors (e.g. Gulf/GCC member states, private philanthropic foundations) by Q3 2026: produce a tailored two-page funding case per donor segment, conduct at least one formal presentation or meeting per identified prospect, and report pipeline status to senior management on a quarterly basis." }, "before": { "mitigation_action": "Broaden funding engagement beyond traditional donors" } }, "BGD-M005": { "after": { "mitigation_action": "Develop and submit a targeted investment case for resilience and livelihoods programming (Cox's Bazar/Rohingya response context) to at least three non-traditional or development-track donors (e.g. bilateral development windows, climate/DRR funds) by Q3 2026, documenting funding ask, cost-efficiency evidence, and expected outcomes; track follow-up responses and report outcomes to the Country Director quarterly." }, "before": { "mitigation_action": "Advocacy for resilient livelihoods investment" } } }, "proposed_payload": { "changes": [ { "kind": "mitigation_modify", "after": { "mitigation_action": "Develop and deliver a targeted funding-outreach package for a minimum of five non-traditional donors (e.g. Gulf/GCC member states, private philanthropic foundations) by Q3 2026: produce a tailored two-page funding case per donor segment, conduct at least one formal presentation or meeting per identified prospect, and report pipeline status to senior management on a quarterly basis." }, "field": "mitigation_action", "before": { "mitigation_action": "Broaden funding engagement beyond traditional donors" }, "rule_id": "C-14", "target_key": "BGD-M002", "quoted_span": "Broaden funding engagement beyond traditional donors", "target_kind": "mitigation", "justification": "fails SMART [specific, measurable, bau]: Fails Specific: the action names no concrete activity, no target donor segment or geography, and no defined scope \u2014 'broaden engagement' is an aspiration, not an action. Fails Measurable: there is no deliverable, count, cadence, or completion criterion by which a reviewer could determine whether the action was carried out. Fails BAU: the parent risk's Controls-in-Place already list 'flexible/multi-year funding exploration' and 'donor briefings on gaps'; as written, 'broaden funding engagement' is indistinguishable from that ongoing activity \u2014 it adds no new mechanism. The rewrite names a specific non-traditional donor segment (Gulf/GCC member states and private philanthropic foundations), a concrete deliverable (a partnership-outreach package), a minimum target count, and a cadence for reporting progress to senior management, making it specific, measurable, and a genuine new action beyond existing controls.", "evidence_ci_id": null, "element_identity": "d9dd19c5a3e75caf922554fe5cea4e9ca7b1c3e7c83f670e47ff52f3a48afc1d", "failed_dimensions": [ "specific", "measurable", "bau" ] }, { "kind": "mitigation_modify", "after": { "mitigation_action": "Develop and submit a targeted investment case for resilience and livelihoods programming (Cox's Bazar/Rohingya response context) to at least three non-traditional or development-track donors (e.g. bilateral development windows, climate/DRR funds) by Q3 2026, documenting funding ask, cost-efficiency evidence, and expected outcomes; track follow-up responses and report outcomes to the Country Director quarterly." }, "field": "mitigation_action", "before": { "mitigation_action": "Advocacy for resilient livelihoods investment" }, "rule_id": "C-14", "target_key": "BGD-M005", "quoted_span": "Advocacy for resilient livelihoods investment", "target_kind": "mitigation", "justification": "fails SMART [specific, measurable, bau]: Fails Specific: no named target audience, no defined ask, no geographic or programmatic scope \u2014 'resilient livelihoods investment' is a topic, not a concrete action. Fails Measurable: no deliverable, cadence, or success indicator by which a reviewer could confirm this was done (per anchor M005, which this mitigation matches almost exactly). Fails BAU: the Controls-in-Place already list 'evidence-based advocacy' and 'flexible/multi-year funding exploration'; this action simply restates the advocacy control in a different register without adding a new mechanism, a new audience, or a defined output (per anchor M015 pattern). Rewrite adds a named audience (specific donor/government counterpart category), a concrete deliverable (a written investment case or briefing note), a defined scope (resilience/livelihoods programming in Cox's Bazar/Rohingya response), and a submission cadence, making it a genuine discrete action beyond existing BAU advocacy.", "evidence_ci_id": null, "element_identity": "2c6cd33f6112c1f565b505211f1ee8181cc96c13f8b7c1f4adfcd940ee262ed3", "failed_dimensions": [ "specific", "measurable", "bau" ] } ], "advisories": [], "target_risk_key": "BGD-R002" }, "decision": null, "decision_note": null, "decided_by": null }, { "change_proposal_id": "85ebf1a6-c741-465b-9bb5-07eaf0d0fde3", "target_kind": "risk", "target_key": "BGD-R003", "change_type": "bundle", "justification": "SMART/validity: 1 mitigation rewrite(s) proposed for BGD-R003; each change names its failed SMART sub-dimension(s).", "evidence_ci_id": null, "evidence_excerpt": "", "diff": { "BGD-M018": { "after": { "mitigation_action": "Establish a documented joint contingency protocol with at least two national disaster preparedness platforms (e.g. Cyclone Preparedness Programme and/or CDMP) covering pre-agreed supply-route alternatives, warehouse handover procedures, and distribution-point activation triggers; circulate final protocol to CO programme and logistics focal points by 2026-Q4 and validate in one tabletop exercise before due date." }, "before": { "mitigation_action": "Coordination with disaster preparedness platforms" } } }, "proposed_payload": { "changes": [ { "kind": "mitigation_modify", "after": { "mitigation_action": "Establish a documented joint contingency protocol with at least two national disaster preparedness platforms (e.g. Cyclone Preparedness Programme and/or CDMP) covering pre-agreed supply-route alternatives, warehouse handover procedures, and distribution-point activation triggers; circulate final protocol to CO programme and logistics focal points by 2026-Q4 and validate in one tabletop exercise before due date." }, "field": "mitigation_action", "before": { "mitigation_action": "Coordination with disaster preparedness platforms" }, "rule_id": "C-14", "target_key": "BGD-M018", "quoted_span": "Coordination with disaster preparedness platforms", "target_kind": "mitigation", "justification": "fails SMART [specific, measurable, bau]: Fails Specific: no concrete action is named \u2014 'coordination' does not identify what will be produced, with which platforms, or for what purpose within this risk's scope. Fails Measurable: there is no deliverable, cadence, or outcome by which a reviewer could confirm this was done. Fails BAU: the Controls-in-Place already list 'preparedness working-group coordination'; this mitigation is indistinguishable from that existing control \u2014 it restates ongoing engagement rather than establishing a new or improved control. Rewrite adds: named platforms (e.g. CPP, CDMP), a concrete deliverable (joint contingency protocol or MOU), a defined scope (supply-route and warehouse continuity), and a completion milestone, making it specific, measurable, and genuinely new relative to existing coordination BAU.", "evidence_ci_id": null, "element_identity": "1702c43248278909de0d8944d6605e07695a5ff9c4f6fe251eba3bf712a97cf7", "failed_dimensions": [ "specific", "measurable", "bau" ] } ], "advisories": [], "target_risk_key": "BGD-R003" }, "decision": null, "decision_note": null, "decided_by": null }, { "change_proposal_id": "9cfa07e4-b19c-4514-ba8c-629329a968ff", "target_kind": "risk", "target_key": null, "change_type": "add", "justification": "No existing register risk captures the specific misalignment between WFP and the host government over Rohingya operational access. BGD-R001 covers political-transition disruption (demonstrations, curfews, transition-era uncertainty) \u2014 a distinct driver. BGD-R006 covers sudden influx scale-up \u2014 the operational surge side. BGD-R009 covers camp-level violence. None captures the strategic-level risk that the government withdraws or restricts operational authorisations as a deliberate policy response to perceived burden-sharing failure. Evidence id=59 provides a direct ministerial signal; id=135 documents the +184% mixed-migration surge and loss of repatriation channels that structurally foreclose the government's preferred exit option; id=111 confirms the political environment is deteriorating (ACLED +19% events, +37% fatalities May 2026) and that camp security and criminal economy expansion are being attributed partly to WFP ration cuts, which further raises the political salience of the Rohingya file for Dhaka. The risk is framed as a government-WFP misalignment event (access restriction) causing programme delivery failure \u2014 a genuine EVENT/CAUSE/EFFECT chain fitting 1.2.2.", "evidence_ci_id": 59, "evidence_excerpt": "###JSON###\n{\"country\":\"Bangladesh\",\"keyStats\":{\"nfr\":\"USD 8.85M net funding requirement (Apr\u2013Sep 2026); JRP 2026 food sector: USD 247.3M against a 26%-reduced appeal of USD 710.5M\",\"currentReach\":\"1.14M people assisted (per WFP Country Brief, April 2026 operations)\",\"ipc\":\"15.5M people IPC Phase 3+ ", "diff": { "r2_cause": { "after": "Sustained failure of international burden-sharing, compounded by a +184% surge in Myanmar-nationality mixed-migration arrivals and Arakan Army control of 14 of 17 Rakhine townships eliminating voluntary return prospects, has prompted Bangladesh's Home Minister to frame the Rohingya presence as a national security threat and signal readiness to harden policy if donor support does not increase.", "before": null }, "r2_event": { "after": "The Bangladesh government formally tightens policy on Rohingya operations \u2014 including access restrictions, accelerated repatriation pressure, or curtailment of service-delivery authorisations in Cox's Bazar camps \u2014 constraining WFP's ability to register, verify and distribute assistance to the 1.1\u20131.2 million Rohingya caseload.", "before": null }, "r2_effect": { "after": "Operational authorisations for distribution, registration and partner access in Cox's Bazar are delayed or withdrawn, reducing beneficiary reach below the 1.1M assisted in May 2026, increasing protection risks for an already ration-cut population, and undermining WFP's ability to meet its CSP commitments to the Rohingya response.", "before": null }, "proposed_area": { "after": "1.2 External relationship", "before": null }, "proposed_type": { "after": "1.2.2 Misalignment with UN system, governments, partners and non-state actors", "before": null }, "proposed_title": { "after": "Government policy hardening on Rohingya presence restricting WFP operational access in Cox's Bazar", "before": null }, "proposed_category": { "after": "Strategic", "before": null } }, "proposed_payload": { "impact": 4, "r2_area": "1.2 External relationship", "r2_type": "1.2.2 Misalignment with UN system, governments, partners and non-state actors", "r2_cause": "Sustained failure of international burden-sharing, compounded by a +184% surge in Myanmar-nationality mixed-migration arrivals and Arakan Army control of 14 of 17 Rakhine townships eliminating voluntary return prospects, has prompted Bangladesh's Home Minister to frame the Rohingya presence as a national security threat and signal readiness to harden policy if donor support does not increase.", "r2_event": "The Bangladesh government formally tightens policy on Rohingya operations \u2014 including access restrictions, accelerated repatriation pressure, or curtailment of service-delivery authorisations in Cox's Bazar camps \u2014 constraining WFP's ability to register, verify and distribute assistance to the 1.1\u20131.2 million Rohingya caseload.", "r2_effect": "Operational authorisations for distribution, registration and partner access in Cox's Bazar are delayed or withdrawn, reducing beneficiary reach below the 1.1M assisted in May 2026, increasing protection risks for an already ration-cut population, and undermining WFP's ability to meet its CSP commitments to the Rohingya response.", "advisories": [ "Recommend internal consultation to determine appropriate mitigations; RAPID does not propose mitigations without an operational basis." ], "likelihood": 3, "risk_title": "Government policy hardening on Rohingya presence restricting WFP operational access in Cox's Bazar", "mitigations": [], "r2_category": "Strategic", "country_code": "BGD", "distinct_from": [ "BGD-R001", "BGD-R006", "BGD-R009" ], "appetite_status": "out" }, "decision": null, "decision_note": null, "decided_by": null } ], "_instructions": "Edit each proposal's decision ('approved'|'rejected'), decided_by, and decision_note, then run: python3 scripts/apply-risk-register-decisions.py --artefact " }