# Risk-Register Proposals — BGD (2026-06-24)

**Pipeline run:** 99b00c04-be9b-427d-83a1-868f0201fb07  
**Pending proposals:** 3

## Proposal 1 — bundle (risk)

**Justification:** SMART/validity: 2 mitigation rewrite(s) proposed for BGD-R002; each change names its failed SMART sub-dimension(s).  
**Evidence (country_intelligence_py id):** None  

_change_proposal_id: cc2ccf33-cff8-4086-a44e-e958c1655b72_

## Proposal 2 — bundle (risk)

**Justification:** SMART/validity: 1 mitigation rewrite(s) proposed for BGD-R003; each change names its failed SMART sub-dimension(s).  
**Evidence (country_intelligence_py id):** None  

_change_proposal_id: 85ebf1a6-c741-465b-9bb5-07eaf0d0fde3_

## Proposal 3 — add (risk)

**Proposed title:** Government policy hardening on Rohingya presence restricting WFP operational access in Cox's Bazar  
**Proposed type:** Strategic / 1.2 External relationship / 1.2.2 Misalignment with UN system, governments, partners and non-state actors  
**Event:** The Bangladesh government formally tightens policy on Rohingya operations — including access restrictions, accelerated repatriation pressure, or curtailment of service-delivery authorisations in Cox's Bazar camps — constraining WFP's ability to register, verify and distribute assistance to the 1.1–1.2 million Rohingya caseload.  
**Cause:** Sustained failure of international burden-sharing, compounded by a +184% surge in Myanmar-nationality mixed-migration arrivals and Arakan Army control of 14 of 17 Rakhine townships eliminating voluntary return prospects, has prompted Bangladesh's Home Minister to frame the Rohingya presence as a national security threat and signal readiness to harden policy if donor support does not increase.  
**Effect:** Operational authorisations for distribution, registration and partner access in Cox's Bazar are delayed or withdrawn, reducing beneficiary reach below the 1.1M assisted in May 2026, increasing protection risks for an already ration-cut population, and undermining WFP's ability to meet its CSP commitments to the Rohingya response.  
**Distinct from:** BGD-R001, BGD-R006, BGD-R009  
**Justification:** No existing register risk captures the specific misalignment between WFP and the host government over Rohingya operational access. BGD-R001 covers political-transition disruption (demonstrations, curfews, transition-era uncertainty) — a distinct driver. BGD-R006 covers sudden influx scale-up — the operational surge side. BGD-R009 covers camp-level violence. None captures the strategic-level risk that the government withdraws or restricts operational authorisations as a deliberate policy response to perceived burden-sharing failure. Evidence id=59 provides a direct ministerial signal; id=135 documents the +184% mixed-migration surge and loss of repatriation channels that structurally foreclose the government's preferred exit option; id=111 confirms the political environment is deteriorating (ACLED +19% events, +37% fatalities May 2026) and that camp security and criminal economy expansion are being attributed partly to WFP ration cuts, which further raises the political salience of the Rohingya file for Dhaka. The risk is framed as a government-WFP misalignment event (access restriction) causing programme delivery failure — a genuine EVENT/CAUSE/EFFECT chain fitting 1.2.2.  
**Evidence (country_intelligence_py id):** 59  
> ###JSON###
{"country":"Bangladesh","keyStats":{"nfr":"USD 8.85M net funding requirement (Apr–Sep 2026); JRP 2026 food sector: USD 247.3M against a 26%-reduced appeal of USD 710.5M","currentReach":"1.14M people assisted (per WFP Country Brief, April 2026 operations)","ipc":"15.5M people IPC Phase 3+ 

_change_proposal_id: 9cfa07e4-b19c-4514-ba8c-629329a968ff_