Ethiopia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Ethiopia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 189M gap against USD 347M annual need (~55% unfunded, CSP 2026–2030, as of June 2026)
Current Reach:	5.5M beneficiaries (Previously, 2025 ACR); June 2026 operational reach degraded — Crisis Response at 23% achievement, Refugee Response at 60% of caseload (fuel-constrained)
Population IPC 3+:	IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in East Hararghe lowlands from Feb 2026; Phase 3 (Crisis) widespread across south/southeast, Amhara, Tigray, Afar (FEWS NET, May 2026). Note: IPC quantitative feed reflects May 2021 analysis only — not current.

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• WFP Ethiopia is in acute operational stress: fuel shortages — with diesel prices up 82% month-on-month as of March 2026 — are simultaneously degrading Crisis Response (23% achievement), School Meals in Amhara and Oromia, and Refugee Response (60% of caseload reached) as of June 2026.^[1]
• WFP provided 115,950 litres of fuel on cost-recovery to partners in May 2026, creating a dependency and fiduciary exposure if recovery mechanisms fail.^[1]
• Conflict remains active across Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia, constraining access and commodity movement. June 2026 ACLED data shows 240 conflict events and 530 fatalities — down 15% and 37% respectively from May 2026 (283 events, 841 fatalities), though still above the 12-month average of 244 events and 661 fatalities/month.^[2] Two airstrikes in Tigray in late June 2026 — one directly hitting a displaced persons camp, killing 56 — confirm continued IDP protection risk in a key WFP operational area.^[3]
• The Akobo/Pochalla border axis with South Sudan requires coordinated pipeline management: 86,400+ people — including returnees and IDPs — are now concentrated in Akobo East following March 2026 clashes, with bidirectional civilian movement creating supply disruption and double-counting risk.^[4]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP, the strategic direction is explicitly transitioning from relief to resilience, with planned handover to government systems (PSNP, school feeding) by 2030. The 2023 aid diversion crisis eroded donor trust, and the new CSP carries stronger assurance measures as a structural response.^[5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• FEWS NET (May 2026) classifies East Hararghe lowlands at IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) from February 2026, driven by 54% zone-wide crop failure (complete failure in lowlands) — one of the worst production years on record.^[6] IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) is widespread across southern/southeastern pastoral zones (Dawa, Liben, Afder, Borena, South Omo), Amhara, Tigray, and Afar.^[6]
• The ICPAC JJAS 2026 seasonal forecast (issued May 2026) projects 80% probability of below-normal rainfall across central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia — including the main Highland farming zones — through September 2026, with 96% probability that a strong El Niño persists through early 2027.^[7] EDRMC has issued a Moisture Stress Early Warning Alert for the 2026 Kiremt season.^[8]
• Severe seasonal rainfall deficits are already confirmed: 26 of 80 districts — concentrated in Oromia and Somali regions — received below 75% of normal rainfall through late June 2026, with one district (Hari/Zone 5) at 58% of normal.^[2]
• Food prices are severely elevated: beans +48%, onions +67%, tomatoes +49%, sesame +56%, and petrol +65% month-on-month as of March 2026, compounding purchasing-power erosion from ETB depreciation and eroding the effectiveness of cash-based transfers in thin markets.^[2]
• Ethiopia hosts approximately 1.1 million refugees — the second-largest refugee population in Africa — with critically understaffed health services reported in Gambella (South Sudanese refugees) and Benishangul-Gumuz (Sudanese refugees) as of June 2026.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• A FAO-WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal (June 2026) identifies Ethiopia as having an existing operational anticipatory action framework and allocates USD 78.2 million for Eastern Africa (3.9 million people targeted), with a USD 68.3 million funding gap. Ethiopia faces distinct dual risk: below-normal rainfall (drought, June–September) in the north/west and above-normal rainfall (flooding, October–December) in the east.^[10]
• Sudan emergency population movements are placing additional refugee pressure on Ethiopia: a seven-country surge could trigger a Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRRP), requiring emergency funding top-ups to Ethiopia's CSP emergency components.^[11]
• Donor pool compression is intensifying: a 43% global surge in cholera cases (May 2026, 16 countries), the Sudan emergency, and the BVD Ebola outbreak are simultaneously competing for the same donor pool as Ethiopia's CSP.^[12] A 26% decline in bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 compounds this structural pressure.^[13]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 5.5 million beneficiaries with 193,825 MT food and USD 53.4 million in CBT. New donor contributions fell 52% year-on-year to USD 182 million; the CSP was resourced at 93% of annual need only due to USD 314 million carried over from 2024, with USD 163 million carried into 2026.^[14]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (Crisis Response) reached 85% beneficiary achievement at 89% expenditure rate, with ration cuts of up to 60% of standard entitlement applied; SO2 (Resilience/School Meals) recorded 141% expenditure rate driven by USD 61M carryover, but school meals sub-activity was funded at only 57%; SO3 (Livelihoods) exceeded planned beneficiary reach at 107% achievement; SO4 (Capacity Strengthening) severely underperformed at 41% funding rate of annual requirement.^[14]
• Current June 2026 operational achievement rates — Crisis Response at 23%, Refugee Response at 60% — represent a sharp deterioration from the 2025 ACR baseline, driven primarily by fuel constraints rather than funding alone.^[1]
• The 2026–2030 CSP plans USD 2.62 billion under SO1 (Crisis Response, nutrition, refugee assistance) as the dominant programme investment across the five-year window. Total plan cost is USD 3.32 billion for a planned 8.7 million beneficiaries — these are whole-window planning totals, not annual figures.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• The CSP (2026–2030) carries a USD 347M annual need, resourced to USD 158M (~45% funded) as of June 2026 — a structural USD 189M annual gap.^[1] This gap is consistent with the pattern of chronic underfunding flagged in the 2025 ACR, where 76% earmarking at activity level severely constrained flexibility.^[14]
• US restructuring of foreign aid delivery through macro-awards to UN agencies (post-USAID dissolution) introduces uncertainty about the architecture of US contributions to the Ethiopia portfolio.^[15]
• The RRRP mechanism offers the primary near-term emergency top-up pathway if Sudan refugee flows materialise at scale; WFP should position as co-lead alongside UNHCR to access this channel.^[11]
• The FAO-WFP joint anticipatory action appeal (USD 68.3M gap for Eastern Africa) is a live resource mobilisation opportunity with a closing pre-impact window ahead of the June–September drought season.^[10]

In The News

• El Niño Confirmed, 80–90% Probability of One of Strongest Events on Record (WFP Stories): Confirmation of a strengthening El Niño directly threatens Ethiopia's 2026 Kiremt harvest and pastoral zones; WFP's anticipatory action framework for Ethiopia is identified as operational but the USD 68.3M Eastern Africa funding gap must be closed before the pre-impact window closes.^[16]
• UNHCR High Commissioner Visit to Ethiopia: 1.1M Refugees, Critical Service Gaps (UNHCR News): UNHCR's June 2026 visit highlights critical health and humanitarian service gaps in Gambella and Benishangul-Gumuz refugee camps; with WFP Refugee Response already at only 60% of caseload, further service degradation in these sites represents compounding protection risk.^[9]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Fuel Shortage Degrading Multiple Programme Streams	Active fuel shortage reducing Crisis Response to 23% achievement and Refugee Response to 60% of caseload simultaneously, with School Meals in Amhara/Oromia also delayed. Diesel prices +82% m/m as of March 2026.	1. Escalate fuel procurement and pre-positioning to Regional Bureau level immediately. 2. Activate contingency in-kind prepositioning where fuel-dependent delivery is at risk. 3. Audit cost-recovery agreements for 115,950-litre partner provision to contain fiduciary exposure.	Supply Chain, Programme, Finance	RB Nairobi, Logistics Cluster	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297); WFP VAM food prices March 2026	High
Financial	CSP Structural Underfunding — USD 189M Annual Gap	CSP (2026–2030) resourced to USD 158M (~45%) against USD 347M annual need as of June 2026. Chronic pattern: 2025 ACR shows new contributions fell 52% YoY; 93% CSP resource rate in 2025 was carryover-driven, not new funding.	1. Country Director to escalate to RB and donors without delay. 2. Prioritise by severity: protect refugee pipeline and nutrition components first. 3. Pursue RRRP co-lead role with UNHCR to unlock emergency top-up funding if Sudan refugee surge materialises.	Resource Mobilisation, Programme, Finance	RB Nairobi, HQ Donors Division	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297); 2025 ACR	High
Strategic	El Niño-Driven Harvest Failure Risk — 2026 Kiremt Season	ICPAC projects 80% probability of below-normal rainfall across central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopian Highlands through September 2026; 96% probability El Niño persists through early 2027. EDRMC has issued Moisture Stress Early Warning Alert for 2026 Kiremt. Dual risk: drought (June–Sept, north/west) and flooding (Oct–Dec, east).	1. Immediately advance procurement and pre-position cereals/pulses for highland areas before seasonal access constraints materialise. 2. Confirm joint activation readiness with FAO under existing Ethiopia anticipatory action framework. 3. Engage donors now using ICPAC science as advocacy basis to close USD 68.3M Eastern Africa gap in joint FAO-WFP appeal.	Programme, Supply Chain, Resilience	RB Nairobi, FAO, OCHA CERF	ICPAC JJAS 2026 Seasonal Forecast (FSC, May 2026); EDRMC Moisture Stress Alert (May 2026); FAO-WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal (June 2026)	High
Financial	Donor Pool Compression from Simultaneous Multi-Crisis Appeals	A 43% global cholera surge (16 countries, May 2026), Sudan emergency, and BVD Ebola outbreak are competing for the same donor pool. Sub-Saharan Africa bilateral aid fell 26% in 2025. Probability of closing Ethiopia's ~55% CSP funding gap is materially reduced.	1. Coordinate with RB on tri-regional WFP mechanism to manage simultaneous portfolio pressures. 2. Engage OCHA inter-agency coordination to identify complementarity rather than competition on cholera/nutrition. 3. Frame Ethiopia funding pitch around anticipatory action cost-effectiveness (USD 7 avoided losses per USD 1 invested).	Resource Mobilisation, External Relations	RB Nairobi, HQ, OCHA	WHO Cholera Epidemiological Update #38 (doc_id: 4218837); UNHCR Sudan Emergency Movements (doc_id: 4218805); RBESA Regional Dashboard May 2026 (doc_id: 4217502)	High
Operational	Cross-Border Pipeline Disruption — Akobo/Pochalla Axis	Bidirectional civilian displacement following March 2026 clashes has concentrated 86,400+ people in Akobo East (Jonglei State), with 11,200 additional IDPs from Nyirol/Uror counties. Supply interruptions on both sides of the return corridor and double-counting risk if joint registration is not established.	1. Establish coordinated pipeline with South Sudan CO immediately to prevent supply interruptions on Akobo East return corridor. 2. Implement joint registration mechanism with South Sudan CO to prevent double-counting of Pochalla County displacement toward Ethiopia.	Supply Chain, Programme, Registration	South Sudan CO, RB Nairobi	South Sudan Humanitarian Update 26 June 2026 (doc_id: 4218281)	Medium
Fiduciary	Cost-Recovery Fuel Provision Exposure	WFP provided 115,950 litres of fuel on cost-recovery to partners in May 2026. If recovery mechanisms fail, WFP absorbs costs intended for partners, further compressing an already underfunded operational budget.	1. Audit and strengthen cost-recovery agreements and payment verification mechanisms. 2. Assess whether fuel dependency should be restructured to limit WFP's direct balance-sheet exposure.	Finance, Supply Chain, Compliance	RB Nairobi, Internal Audit	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297)	Medium
Strategic	Reputational/Compliance — Aid Diversion Legacy and Donor Trust Deficit	The 2023 aid diversion crisis (cited in CSP 2026–2030 strategic risks) eroded donor confidence and led to 76% activity-level earmarking in 2025, severely constraining programme flexibility. The 2026–2030 CSP includes strengthened assurance measures, but earmarking patterns indicate residual donor risk-aversion that structurally limits WFP's operational agility.	1. Accelerate implementation of CSP 2026–2030 enhanced assurance measures (partner vetting, biometric registration, PSEA protocols) and communicate progress to donors. 2. Country Director to proactively brief key donors on accountability improvements to reduce earmarking pressure and unlock flexible contributions.	External Relations, Compliance, Programme	HQ, RB Nairobi, Internal Audit	CSP 2026–2030 Strategic Risks Summary; 2025 ACR (doc_id: ACR-ETH-2025)	Medium

Note: More than 82 documents were reviewed covering the period April–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 2 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The IPC quantitative data feed reflects a May 2021 analysis (Phase 3+: 5.5 million across an 8.98 million analysed population) and cannot be used for current food security framing; current IPC phasing is drawn instead from the FEWS NET Food Security Outlook Update (May 2026) and FSC documents, which are authoritative for the current period. Food security quantitative indicators including GAM/SAM rates, ration coverage levels, and market price indices are not reportable from the UNHCR Ethiopia SitRep substrate (doc_id: 4217462), representing a material intelligence gap for nutrition programme targeting decisions.

Footnotes

1. WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297)
2. ACLED Conflict Data and WFP VAM Food Price Monitoring — HDX, June/March 2026
3. Tigray airstrike reporting — news intelligence, 29 June 2026 (ref://50)
4. South Sudan Humanitarian Update (as of 26 June 2026) — OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218281)
5. WFP Ethiopia Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — WFP, 2026
6. FEWS NET Food Security Outlook Update December 2025–May 2026 — FEWS NET, May 2026 (FSC document)
7. ICPAC/IGAD JJAS 2026 Seasonal Forecast (GHACOF 73) — ICPAC, May 2026 (FSC document)
8. EDRMC Moisture Stress Early Warning Alert 2026 Kiremt Season — EDRMC, May 2026 (FSC document)
9. UNHCR Ethiopia High Commissioner Visit — UNHCR News, June 2026 (ref://24)
10. El Niño FAO-WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal — FAO/WFP, June 2026 (FSC document)
11. Sudan Emergency: Population Movements from Sudan (29 June 2026) — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4218805)
12. Multi-country outbreak of cholera, epidemiological update #38 — WHO, July 2026 (doc_id: 4218837)
13. Sub-Saharan Africa bilateral aid decline — news intelligence, 30 June 2026 (ref://56)
14. WFP Ethiopia Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2025 (ACR-ETH-2025)
15. US foreign aid macro-awards restructuring — Devex, June 2026 (ref://18)
16. WFP Stories: El Niño confirmed, June 2026 (ref://1)