Ethiopia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Ethiopia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 189M shortfall for July–December 2026 (CSP ~45% funded)
Current Reach:	67,110 reached in Crisis Response (May 2026, 23% of plan); 335,300 for MAM treatment
Population IPC 3+:	IPC data unavailable for current period; FEWS NET projects IPC Phase 4 in East Hararghe lowlands and IPC Phase 3 across southern/southeastern pastoral zones through May 2026 (forecast issued Dec 2025–May 2026)

---

Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Nationwide fuel shortages and transporter unavailability constitute the primary operational constraint, simultaneously suppressing Crisis Response to 23% of the May 2026 plan (67,110 people reached), delaying School Meals in Amhara and Oromia, and limiting Refugee Response to 60% of caseload.^[1] Diesel prices surged 82% month-on-month to ETB 425/litre as of March 2026, corroborating the structural supply-side constraint.^[2]
• WFP provided 115,950 litres of fuel on cost-recovery to partners in May 2026, creating fiduciary exposure if recovery mechanisms fail.^[1]
• Conflict remains an access driver: FEWS NET (Dec 2025–May 2026 outlook) documented road blockages in Amhara, TPLF–ENDF fighting extending into Afar, and fuel shortages constraining logistics in Tigray.^[3] News reporting from July 2026 indicates airstrikes on IDP and refugee sites in Tigray — including Dedebit — with active shortages of fuel, cash, and supplies compounding delivery to an estimated 5.2 million people across northern Ethiopia, and rising Ethiopia-Eritrea military tensions threatening the operational space rebuilt since the Pretoria Agreement.^[4,5]
• The 2026 Kiremt (June–September) rainy season carries a 70–90% probability of below-average rainfall across central and northern Ethiopia per EMI/ICPAC, with analogue years 1997 and 2023 both producing severe food security deterioration. The Ethiopia Agriculture Taskforce has issued an anticipatory action appeal for USD 78.8 million to protect 2.4 million people across 163 districts.^[6,7]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Ethiopia hosts 1.9 million IDPs and 1.1 million refugees.^[1] Malnutrition is described as "alarmingly high," with MAM treatment reaching 335,300 people in May 2026 against a caseload implying approximately 508,000 — approximately 34% uncovered each month.^[1]
• Across refugee camps, UNHCR SENS data confirm systematic ration insufficiency: general food rations last 13.6 days/30 in Sherkole (Assosa), 14.4 in Bambasi, 15.8 in Tsore, 17.0 in Ura; 15.19 days/30 in Kule, 15.6 in Tierkidi, 15.67 in Nguenyyiel, 18.06 in Jewi, 18.97 in Pinyudo II, and 22.4 in Pinyudo I (Gambella).^[8,9] Alemwach camp (Amhara): ration delivers 1,267 kcal/person/day (60% of RDA), with 84.4% of households using at least one negative coping strategy, 87.3% never consuming Vitamin A-rich foods, and 66.3% never consuming haem iron-rich foods.^[10]
• FEWS NET projects IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in East Hararghe lowlands (54% crop loss zone-wide; near-total failure in lowlands) and IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) across southern/southeastern pastoral zones through May 2026. Note: the quantitative IPC feed contains only a May 2021 classification — it is 62 months old and should not be used for current planning.^[3,2]
• A strong El Niño (96% probability persisting through December 2026–February 2027) will compound drought across already-stressed pastoral zones and may amplify flooding risk in localized areas.^[6]

Trend Indicators:

• ACLED data show a sharp statistical drop: July 2026 to date records 18 conflict events and 24 fatalities, versus a 7-month average of 224 events/596 fatalities per month and 322 events/709 fatalities in June 2026. This may reflect incomplete July reporting rather than genuine de-escalation — assessors should not interpret as stabilisation.^[2]
• Food prices show broad inflationary pressure as of March 2026: wheat +10%, beans (haricot) +48%, tomatoes +49%, onions +67%, sesame +56%, petrol +65%, diesel +82% month-on-month. Staple food price counter-seasonality in East Hararghe is supply-driven, reducing cash transfer effectiveness in thin markets.^[2,3]
• Strait of Hormuz disruption (active US-Iran military conflict, closure declared by Iran) is driving global fuel and food commodity price surges with direct transmission to Ethiopia's import costs and WFP logistics budgets — the primary external macro-shock compounding domestic fuel shortages.^[11]
• A 160,000-strong South Sudanese refugee influx into Gambella requires tri-lateral pipeline coordination between WFP Ethiopia, WFP South Sudan, UNHCR, and the Refugees and Returnees Service (RRS).^[1] Unquantified cross-border flows of drought-displaced Somalis from Mudug region (Gaalkacyo and Galdogob districts) also require monitoring.^[12]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 5.5 million total beneficiaries. SO1 (Crisis Response) reached 85% beneficiary achievement at 89% expenditure rate, with refugee response funded at 83% of its USD 149M requirement and ration cuts of up to 60%. SO2 (Resilience/School Meals) achieved high expenditure (141% rate, inflated by USD 61M carryover) but school meals sub-activity was only 57% funded with regional coverage gaps. SO3 (Livelihoods) reached 107% beneficiary achievement at 82% expenditure rate. SO4 (Capacity Strengthening) was severely underfunded at 41% of requirement, achieving 55% expenditure rate. New contributions fell to USD 182M in 2025, a 52% reduction from USD 379M in 2024; USD 163M was carried forward into 2026.^[13]
• Current (May 2026): Crisis Response — 67,110 people reached (23% of plan) due to fuel shortages; School Meals delayed in Amhara and Oromia; MAM treatment: 335,300 reached with 1,100 MT specialized nutritious foods and USD 1.1M in CBT vouchers; Refugee Response at 60% of caseload.^[1]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP (total five-year cost: USD 3.3 billion), WFP is transitioning from relief to resilience while sustaining large-scale emergency response. The plan explicitly flags insufficient resources, declining donor contributions, and a 2023 aid diversion crisis that eroded donor trust as structural risks.^[14]
• The Ethiopia Agriculture Taskforce (with WFP co-leadership) and FAO-WFP joint anticipatory action appeal (USD 202M sought for 8.8 million people across 22 countries including Ethiopia) provide institutional frameworks for pre-crisis resource mobilisation ahead of the El Niño lean season.^[7,15]

Funding Outlook:

• The 2026–2030 CSP carries a total annual need of USD 347M, resourced to approximately USD 158M (~45% funded), leaving a USD 189M net shortfall for July–December 2026 alone.^[1] This gap is structurally severe: previously (2025 ACR), 76% of contributions were earmarked at activity level, limiting flexibility; the 2025 new-contribution collapse (52% year-on-year reduction) has carried directly into 2026 opening balances.^[13]
• The global bilateral aid environment is acutely adverse: a Devex analysis (July 2026) documents a 16–28% decline in bilateral foreign aid to sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 and a 40% contraction in humanitarian assistance, with the IMF characterising this as historically unprecedented and warning of further cuts as new multiyear budget cycles begin.^[16]
• Without USD 189M mobilised for H2 2026, WFP will be forced into hard prioritisation across Crisis Response, Refugee Response, nutrition, and School Meals simultaneously — at a moment when the El Niño-driven lean season is likely to expand the caseload, not contract it.

In The News

• Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz; Commercial Shipping Halted (Dawn, Pakistan, 12 Jul 2026): Active US-Iran military conflict and Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving global fuel and food commodity price surges that transmit directly into Ethiopia's already-acute diesel shortage and WFP logistics costs; Ethiopia's import-dependent food system and near-total road logistics dependency amplify this macro-shock.^[11]
• Tigray Airstrikes on IDP Sites; Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Escalate (news, 12 Jul 2026): Airstrikes on IDP and refugee sites including Dedebit in Tigray, combined with rising Ethiopia-Eritrea military tensions and alleged forced recruitment, represent direct threats to humanitarian staff, protected sites, and the operational space WFP rebuilt in northern Ethiopia — with active fuel and supply shortages compounding reach to approximately 5.2 million people.^[4,5]
• Sub-Saharan Africa Aid Collapse: 40% Humanitarian Contraction (Devex, 8 Jul 2026): A 40% humanitarian aid contraction across sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 — characterised by the IMF as historically unprecedented — directly threatens WFP Ethiopia's ability to close its USD 189M H2 2026 funding gap, with no near-term replacement mechanism at scale.^[16]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Fuel shortage-driven multi-programme delivery collapse	Nationwide fuel shortages and transporter unavailability reduced Crisis Response to 23% of May 2026 plan (67,110 reached); simultaneously degraded School Meals in Amhara/Oromia and Refugee Response to 60% of caseload. Diesel +82% m/m as of March 2026.	1. Secure dedicated fuel supply arrangements outside spot-market procurement. 2. Escalate as operational emergency to Regional Bureau and donors. 3. Strengthen cost-recovery for 115,950 litres provided to partners in May.	Supply Chain; Programme; Finance	RBN Logistics; UNHRD	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297); WFP VAM food prices March 2026	High
Financial	USD 189M H2 2026 funding gap threatening full CSP implementation	CSP annual need USD 347M; resourced to USD 158M (~45% funded). H2 2026 net shortfall: USD 189M. 2025 new contributions fell 52% year-on-year to USD 182M per ACR. Global bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa contracted 40% in humanitarian assistance in 2025.	1. Country Director to immediately escalate USD 189M shortfall to Regional Bureau and key donors with formal briefing note. 2. Develop prioritisation framework protecting nutrition and refugee pipeline in constrained scenario.	Programme; Partnerships; Finance	RBN; HQ Partnerships	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297); 2025 ACR; Devex July 2026 (ref://4)	High
Strategic	Systematic ration insufficiency driving malnutrition acceleration across refugee camps	General food rations cover only 13.6–22.4 days of 30 across Gambella and Assosa camps. Alemwach: 1,267 kcal/person/day (60% RDA), 87.3% of households never consumed Vitamin A-rich foods. 34% of MAM caseload (~170,000 people) unreached monthly.	1. Prioritise pipeline restoration to approach 100% ration entitlement. 2. Integrate SENS dietary diversity findings into nutrition targeting for Vitamin A and haem iron. 3. Verify Melkadida ration level (40% vs 60% discrepancy in source data).	Programme (Nutrition, Refugee); Supply Chain	UNHCR; Nutrition Cluster	UNHCR SENS Gambella 2025 (doc_id: 4218433); UNHCR SENS Assosa 2025 (doc_id: 4218430); UNHCR SENS Alemwach 2025 (doc_id: 4218428)	High
Strategic	El Niño-driven Kiremt failure expanding caseload into an already-underfunded response	ICPAC/EMI project 70–90% probability of below-normal JJAS 2026 rainfall across central/northern Ethiopia. ATF requests USD 78.8M for anticipatory action for 2.4M people across 163 districts. FEWS NET projects IPC Phase 4 in East Hararghe and Phase 3 across southern pastoral zones.	1. Activate anticipatory action protocols now using ATF/EDRMC trigger framework. 2. Pre-position food and cash in southern/southeastern pastoral areas before seasonal access constraints materialise. 3. Include El Niño signal in immediate donor advocacy.	Programme; Supply Chain; Partnerships	FAO; EDRMC; ICPAC; ATF	ICPAC JJAS 2026 forecast; EDRMC Moisture Stress Alert May 2026; FEWS NET Outlook Update Dec 2025–May 2026	High
Operational	160,000 South Sudanese refugee influx and nascent Somalia cross-border displacement compounding constrained pipeline	160,000 South Sudanese refugees in Gambella require tri-lateral coordination with WFP South Sudan, UNHCR, and RRS; Gambella camps already at 50–60% ration delivery. Unquantified Somali drought-displaced (>10,000 families in Mudug) crossing into Ethiopia require immediate monitoring.	1. Formalise tri-lateral coordination mechanism with WFP South Sudan, UNHCR, and RRS synchronising pipeline and registration. 2. Establish border monitoring capacity with UNHCR for Somalia-Ethiopia flow; share data with WFP Somalia once quantified.	Supply Chain; Programme (Refugee); Partnerships	WFP South Sudan CO; UNHCR; RRS	WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297); OCHA Somalia June 2026 (doc_id: 4221003)	High
Operational	Security deterioration in northern Ethiopia threatening humanitarian access	Airstrikes on Dedebit IDP/refugee site in Tigray (July 2026); rising Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions; alleged forced recruitment including minors; FEWS NET documents road blockages in Amhara and TPLF-ENDF conflict extending into Afar. Active fuel and supply shortages compound access for estimated 5.2M people in northern Ethiopia.	1. Conduct immediate access corridor review for Tigray, Afar, and Amhara with OCHA and logistics cluster. 2. Advocate for humanitarian protected-site status through diplomatic channels. 3. Engage EHRC strategic plan process for civic space monitoring relevant to access.	Access; Security; Supply Chain	UNDSS; Logistics Cluster; OCHA	News intelligence July 2026 (ref://35, ref://37); FEWS NET Outlook Dec 2025–May 2026	High
Financial	Strait of Hormuz closure driving fuel and commodity price inflation with direct Ethiopia operational cost impact	Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed (July 2026); tanker transits have collapsed. Ethiopia's diesel already +82% m/m as of March 2026; sustained Hormuz disruption will further inflate WFP logistics costs, food procurement prices, and household purchasing power of CBT recipients.	1. Conduct immediate procurement and logistics cost review, modelling +20–30% fuel and commodity price scenarios. 2. Review CBT transfer values against updated food basket costs; escalate if purchasing power gap materialises.	Supply Chain; Finance; Programme (CBT)	RBN; HQ Supply Chain; WFP VAM	Dawn Pakistan July 2026 (ref://3); WFP VAM March 2026 price data	High
Fiduciary	Aid diversion history and 76% earmarking limiting operational flexibility and donor trust	The 2023 aid diversion crisis eroded donor trust and shaped the current CSP's enhanced assurance measures. Previously (2025 ACR): 76% of contributions were earmarked at activity level, critically limiting cross-programme reallocation in the current funding crisis. Any recurrence of diversion allegations would further damage the USD 189M mobilisation effort.	1. Maintain full implementation of enhanced internal controls, partner vetting, and PSEA protocols per 2026–2030 CSP. 2. Proactively brief key donors on assurance measures in H2 2026 resource mobilisation pitch. 3. Ensure cost-recovery documentation for 115,950 litres of partner fuel is auditable.	Finance; Programme; Partnerships	HQ Inspector General; OIOS	2026–2030 CSP strategic risks; 2025 ACR; WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297)	High

Note: More than 116 documents were reviewed covering the period through July 2026, supplemented by FSC intelligence and news sources to July 12–13, 2026. The intelligence is current as of 13 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Melkadida refugee camps ration level: the UNHCR SENS Melkadida 2025 executive summary (doc_id: 4218431) states a 40% planned/current ration reduction, while the same document's data footnote and GFR figure state 60% in both 2024 and 2025 survey periods — the operative ration level is unresolved; WFP country office should verify before using either figure for pipeline or advocacy purposes.

Footnotes

1. WFP Ethiopia Country Brief June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217297)
2. Quantitative Data Feed — ACLED/WFP VAM via HDX, data as of March 2026 (food prices) and July 2026 partial (conflict)
3. FEWS NET Food Security Outlook Update December 2025–May 2026 — FEWS NET, May 2026 (FSC document)
4. News intelligence: Tigray airstrikes and Dedebit site attack — news source, 12 July 2026 (ref://35)
5. News intelligence: Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions and forced recruitment — news source, 12 July 2026 (ref://37)
6. ICPAC-IGAD JJAS 2026 Seasonal Forecast — ICPAC, May 2026 (FSC document)
7. DRM-ATF Advocacy Note on Urgent Anticipatory Action for El Niño-Induced Moisture Stress — Ethiopia ATF, July 2026 (FSC document)
8. UNHCR Ethiopia SENS Final Report Gambella Refugee Camps 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218433)
9. UNHCR Ethiopia SENS Final Report Assosa 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218430)
10. UNHCR Ethiopia SENS Final Report Alemwach and Aftit Camps 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218428)
11. Dawn (Pakistan): US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure — Dawn, 12 July 2026 (ref://3)
12. OCHA Somalia Monthly Humanitarian Update June 2026 — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221003)
13. WFP Ethiopia Annual Country Report 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025 (ACR input)
14. WFP Ethiopia Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — World Food Programme, 2026 (CSP input)
15. El Niño FAO-WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal — FAO/WFP, June 2026 (FSC document)
16. Devex: Sub-Saharan Africa aid decline — Devex, 8 July 2026 (ref://4)