Gambia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Gambia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 9.5M (May–Oct 2026); combined gap USD 9.4M — near-total pipeline failure
Current Reach:	167,941 people assisted (Mar–Apr 2026; 53% female); cash transfers only
Population IPC 3+:	243,937 (proj., Jun–Aug 2025, 10% of analysed pop.) — 2026 CH results not yet reported

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• WFP Gambia is in near-total pipeline failure. The six-month net funding requirement (May–Oct 2026) stands at USD 9.5M; combined identified gaps — USD 4.8M for lean season emergency response and USD 4.6M for school feeding — total USD 9.4M, effectively equalling the full requirement.^[1]
• The lean season emergency response has been formally cancelled. As of May 2026, zero emergency food assistance is programmed for the 2026 lean season — the highest-risk period of the year — leaving crisis-affected populations without any WFP safety net.^[1]
• The only active modality is cash-based transfers, with USD 722,752 transferred in Mar–Apr 2026, reaching 167,941 people (53% female) — a footprint already characterised as constrained relative to need.^[1]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, WFP's strategic posture is to transition toward government-led systems (school feeding handover, shock-responsive social protection, national social registry). The current funding collapse threatens to reverse that arc entirely, defaulting to emergency dependency without the emergency pipeline to support it.^[3]
• ACLED data confirm a low-conflict environment: zero political violence events or fatalities recorded in Jun–Jul 2026, consistent with the 13-month average of approximately 1 event/month and zero fatalities.^[4] Conflict is not a constraint on WFP operations.

Vulnerability Scale:

• The IPC projection for Jun–Aug 2025 (the most recent available) estimated 243,937 people in Phase 3+ (10% of analysed population), including 7,647 in Phase 4 Emergency.^[4] ⚠ This analysis is 17 months old; the 2026 Cadre Harmonisé was conducted in March 2026 with WFP support, but phase classifications and acute malnutrition rates have not been published in available documents.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): 244,000 people faced acute food insecurity during the lean season, including 8,000 in IPC Phase 4. Structural drivers include rain-fed agriculture, high food prices, and GNI per capita of USD 890; over half the population lives below the national poverty line.^[2]
• Food prices show emerging stress: diesel +10% and petrol +18% month-on-month (Apr 2026 data), and dry fish +13% m/m — a key protein source for food-insecure households. Staple rice and sugar held flat.^[4]
• School feeding covers 164,194 children across 422 schools in Upper River, Central River North/South, and North Bank Regions — among the country's most food-insecure areas.^[1] The USD 4.6M gap for 2026–2027 directly threatens continuity ahead of the September 2026 school year.
• Flood-affected communities in Upper and Central River North/South Regions required emergency food assistance in Sep–Oct 2025; the 2026 rainy season presents recurrence risk with zero emergency pipeline available.^[5]

Trend Indicators:

• Trajectory is sharply worsening. The six-month NFR escalated from USD 3.5M (Nov 2025–Apr 2026) to USD 9.5M (May–Oct 2026) — a 171% increase — signalling either a major upward revision in assessed need or severe pipeline deterioration, or both.^[1][5]
• Regional context compounds domestic constraints: West and Central Africa HNRP coverage stands at 32% as of 13 Jul 2026 — the lowest in the 2016–2026 historical series, down from 53% at the same point in 2025 — eliminating realistic prospects for regional surge or emergency fund relief.^[6]
• Previously (2025 ACR): cumulative CSP funding gap of 36.1% since CSP start; annual resources mobilised (USD 15.5M including multi-year carry-forwards) exceeded the implementation plan (USD 9.7M) but were heavily earmarked, limiting rebalancing flexibility. This structural inflexibility now renders the pipeline collapse harder to manage.^[2]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (Sep–Oct 2025): Home-Grown School Feeding resumed, transferring USD 635,000 to 422 schools for Term 1 procurement of locally produced rice, beans, and groundnuts.^[5] Previously (Nov–Dec 2025): USD 690,000 transferred to the same 422 schools for Term 2.^[7] As of May 2026, the 2026–2027 school year faces a USD 4.6M gap — the HGSF model that reached 164,194 children (54% girls, 2025 ACR) cannot be sustained at current scale.^[1][2]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (crisis response) reached 23.4% beneficiary achievement rate at 93.4% expenditure rate — 24,331 beneficiaries against a planned 103,865; climate shock activity delivered zero beneficiaries against 8,800 planned. SO2 (school feeding/nutrition) reached 109.9% beneficiary achievement rate at 92.6% expenditure rate, but total rations served fell 15.1% as feeding days dropped from 156 to 120. SO3 (livelihoods/resilience) reached 6.2% beneficiary achievement rate at 75.9% expenditure rate.^[2]
• The ITC partnership for HGSF local supplier assessment and the UN Joint SDG Fund project remain the primary inter-agency coordination anchors. Local procurement reached 93% of school food commodities from 20 cooperatives in 2025 — a functioning supply chain model that could anchor emergency donor engagement.^[2][7]
• Previously (Sep–Oct 2025): post-harvest loss reduction training reached 105 farmers in North Bank Region — a resilience entry point now at risk of discontinuation.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• The outlook is EXISTENTIAL. With USD 9.4M in identified gaps against a USD 9.5M six-month NFR, and no donor contributions or pledges reported in the May 2026 Country Brief, the pipeline is effectively empty beyond cash transfers.^[1]
• Regional donor retrenchment is structural, not cyclical. West and Central Africa Food Security cluster stands at 11% HNRP coverage (USD 201.2M funded vs. USD 1,803.0M required) — the most severely underfunded WFP-relevant sector regionally.^[6] Gambia, as a small non-Sahel country, will compete poorly for any residual emergency allocations.
• The 2024–2028 CSP explicitly flags a deteriorating funding landscape and reduced donor interest. Priority triage under significant shortfalls is to protect SO1 (crisis response) and SO2 (school feeding/nutrition).^[3] That prioritisation is now moot: both are unfunded for the current period.
• The action-forcing deadline is September 2026: failure to close any portion of the USD 4.6M school feeding gap before school year commencement will result in immediate meal losses for 164,194 children. The lean season response gap has already materialised.

In The News

• UN Security Council Briefing on West Africa and the Sahel (UN Press): Council-level attention to the Sahel's compounding crises — food insecurity, displacement, political instability — signals continued international scrutiny of the region but also reflects the structural donor fatigue driving Gambia's pipeline collapse; WFP country leadership should track whether the briefing generates any new financing signals for the West Africa envelope.^[8]
• NGO Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities in The Gambia (news): A regional cybersecurity initiative launched in The Gambia reveals that 43% of NGO partners have suffered cyberattacks and 70% lack adequate incident-response capacity — directly relevant to WFP's partner vetting and fiduciary risk oversight for cash transfer and beneficiary data systems.^[9]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Strategic	Pipeline Collapse — Lean Season Response Cancelled	USD 4.8M gap has already cancelled all 2026 lean season emergency response. Zero emergency food assistance programmed during the highest-risk period.	1. Immediate escalation to RB West and Central Africa for emergency resource mobilisation. 2. Activate the 2026 CH findings (March 2026 analysis) as the evidential anchor for a targeted donor appeal.	Programme, Partnerships, Regional Bureau	RB Dakar; HQ Resource Mobilisation	WFP Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)	High
Financial	Near-Total Pipeline Underfunding	Combined gap of USD 9.4M equals 99% of the USD 9.5M six-month NFR. Only USD 722,752 in cash transfers active (Mar–Apr 2026). No donor pledges reported.	1. Pursue emergency bridge financing from RB discretionary funds or pooled mechanisms. 2. Explore bilateral approaches to non-traditional donors (Gulf states, IFIs) per CSP partnership action plan.	Finance, Partnerships, Programme	RB Dakar; HQ Private Partnerships	WFP Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)	High
Operational	School Feeding Collapse — 164,194 Children at Risk	USD 4.6M gap for 2026–2027 school year threatens continuity for 164,194 children across 422 schools. Action-forcing deadline: September 2026 school year commencement.	1. Prioritise HGSF donor outreach before August 2026 using 93% local procurement record and ITC partnership as proof of concept. 2. Leverage UN Joint SDG Fund project as inter-agency coordination vehicle to sustain minimum delivery.	Programme, Supply Chain, Partnerships	ITC; School Meals Coalition; UN SDG Fund	WFP Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152); Nov–Dec 2025 Country Brief (doc_id: 4194257)	High
Operational	Flood Response Capacity Gap	Flood-affected communities in Upper and Central River North/South Regions required emergency assistance in Sep–Oct 2025. 2026 rainy season presents recurrence risk with zero emergency pipeline.	1. Pre-position contingency planning and identify minimum trigger thresholds for emergency response activation. 2. Use Social Registry (first deployed for flood response in 2025) to accelerate beneficiary identification if funding materialises.	Programme, Logistics, Emergency Preparedness	NDMA; FAO	WFP Gambia Country Brief, Sep–Oct 2025 (doc_id: 4187774)	Medium
Strategic	Regional Donor Retrenchment — No Surge Pathway	West and Central Africa HNRP at 32% coverage (lowest since 2016); Food Security cluster at 11% HNRP coverage. No realistic regional emergency fund pathway exists to offset Gambia's domestic gap.	1. Frame Gambia's appeal within a regional narrative rather than country-by-country to capture any bloc-level donor engagement. 2. Accelerate CSP diversification toward IFIs and private sector.	Partnerships, Regional Bureau	RB Dakar; HQ Donor Relations	OCHA West and Central Africa Funding Status, 13 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221308)	High
Fiduciary	Partner Cybersecurity Exposure — Cash Transfer and Beneficiary Data Systems	43% of NGO partners in The Gambia have suffered cyberattacks; 70% lack incident-response capacity. WFP's cash transfer and beneficiary registry data are exposed via partner system vulnerabilities.	1. Conduct partner cybersecurity vetting review, applying minimum ARONCY-equivalent standards. 2. Ensure WFP beneficiary data is isolated from partner systems lacking adequate incident-response protocols.	ICT, Risk Management, Programme	WFP ICT Division; ARONCY initiative	News report on ARONCY initiative, Jul 2026 (ref://2)	Medium
Operational	2026 CH Findings Gap — Evidence Base Absent	The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis was conducted with WFP support but phase classifications and malnutrition rates are not published. Lean season donor appeals lack an authoritative food security evidence base.	1. Urgently obtain and publish 2026 CH findings to underpin emergency appeals. 2. Use projected IPC Jun–Aug 2025 figures (243,937 in Phase 3+) as interim proxy with explicit caveat on staleness.	VAM, Programme, Partnerships	Bureau of Statistics; CH Secretariat	WFP Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)	Medium

Note: More than 10 documents were reviewed covering September 2025 through July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The IPC Phase 3+ current-period observation (Mar–May 2025 analysis) shows 0 people in Phase 3+ with an analysed population of 0 — an artefact of the analytical cycle, not a genuine food security improvement; the operationally relevant figure is the same analysis's projection of 243,937 in Phase 3+ for Jun–Aug 2025 (10% of analysed population), which is itself 17 months old and predates the 2026 CH analysis whose results remain unpublished, creating a meaningful evidence gap for current lean season caseload estimation.

Footnotes

1. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 — World Food Programme, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)
2. WFP Gambia Annual Country Report 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025 (ACR report_year: 2025)
3. WFP Gambia Country Strategic Plan 2024–2028 — World Food Programme, 2024
4. ACLED conflict data and WFP VAM food price monitoring via HDX — various, data as of Apr–Jul 2026
5. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, September–October 2025 — World Food Programme, November 2025 (doc_id: 4187774)
6. West and Central Africa: 2026 Regional Funding Status — General Overview (as of 13 July 2026) — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221308)
7. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, November–December 2025 — World Food Programme, January 2026 (doc_id: 4194257)
8. UN Security Council Briefing on West Africa and the Sahel — UN Press, July 2026 (ref://1)
9. ARONCY Regional Cybersecurity Initiative, The Gambia — news report, 20 July 2026 (ref://2)