Gambia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Gambia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 2.77M (Jul–Dec 2026); USD 4.8M lean season gap unfunded; USD 4.6M school feeding gap
Current Reach:	214,000 people assisted (May–Jun 2026)
Population IPC 3+:	262,167 CH Phase 3+ (proj., Jun–Aug 2026)

---

Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• The Gambia is experiencing acute funding-driven response paralysis at peak lean season. With 262,167 people projected at CH Phase 3 (Crisis) during June–August 2026—a 56% increase from the 167,941 observed in March–May 2026—WFP has no funded lean season response in place, representing a direct protection-of-life risk.^[1][2]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, WFP is positioned as an enabler of government-led systems (school feeding handover, shock-responsive social protection) rather than a primary emergency actor. This strategic posture is now severely tested: the CSP is funded at USD 23.42M against a USD 95.23M total requirement, a structural gap compounded by the worst regional HNRP coverage ratio in the 2016–2026 historical series (32% as of 13 July 2026).^[1][3]
• Gambia's structural vulnerabilities—rainfed agriculture (70% of employment), remittance dependency, tourism exposure, and 53.4% national poverty rate—leave the food security outlook highly sensitive to the below-average 2026 rainfall forecast, which is consistent with regional projections.^[2][4]

Vulnerability Scale:

• CH Phase 3 caseload is projected to reach 262,167 people (~11% of the analysed population) during June–August 2026, up from 167,941 (~7%) in March–May 2026, per the March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé.^[1][2]
• 164,000 children across 422 schools in Upper River, Central River North and South, and North Bank Regions face school feeding discontinuity due to a USD 4.6M gap threatening the 2026–2027 school year—the country's largest safety net.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): During the 2025 lean season, 244,000 people faced acute food insecurity including 8,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). WFP reached 203,334 unique beneficiaries in 2025, with SO2 school feeding achieving 109.9% beneficiary achievement rate (driven by higher-than-expected enrolment), though feeding days fell from 156 to 120 due to funding constraints.^[5]
• Food price data (April 2026) shows fuel (petrol) +18% month-on-month and dry fish +13% m/m—key cost drivers for both households and WFP cash-based transfer purchasing power.^[6]

Trend Indicators:

• Trajectory: Worsening. The lean season CH Phase 3 caseload has grown 56% from the current-period observed figure, with zero funded WFP response as of July 2026.^[1][2]
• The regional funding environment is deteriorating sharply: West and Central Africa HNRP coverage at 32% (USD 1.74B of USD 5.40B funded, USD 3.67B unmet as of 13 July 2026) is the lowest in the decade-long historical series, with prior lows of 44% in 2024.^[3]
• Below-average 2026 rainfall forecast raises the risk of a compounding climate shock layered on an already unfunded lean season response. A USD 200,000 ARC Replica macro-insurance policy is pre-positioned but provides only marginal contingency capacity relative to the scale of need.^[2]
• A July 2026 shipwreck off Nouadhibou (144 dead or missing), with the deadliest vessel reportedly drifting 25 days from Gambia, signals that food insecurity and economic desperation are driving dangerous Atlantic migration—an indirect indicator of deepening livelihood stress.^[7]
• ACLED data shows zero conflict events and zero fatalities in June–July 2026 (13-month average: 1 event/month, 0 fatalities), confirming the crisis is driven by economic and climate factors, not insecurity.^[6]

WFP Operations:

• Current reach (May–June 2026): 214,000 people assisted (56% female); USD 722,752 in cash-based transfers transferred.^[1]
• No lean season response is planned for June–August 2026 due to the USD 4.8M funding gap. This leaves 262,167 CH Phase 3-projected people without WFP assistance at the peak hunger period.^[2]
• School feeding: 422 schools and 164,000 children in Upper River, Central River North and South, and North Bank Regions are at risk of programme discontinuity for the 2026–2027 school year. Previously (November–December 2025), WFP transferred USD 690,000 to these 422 schools for food procurement ahead of the January–March 2026 school term—the last documented period of fuller delivery before the funding crisis deepened.^[1][8]
• Food for Asset programming in Central and Upper River Regions covered 458 participants reflecting residual 2025 flood caseload. Previously (2025 ACR): SO3 achieved only 6.2% beneficiary achievement rate against a planned 47,400 food-for-asset beneficiaries, funded at 35% of needs.^[5][8]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 crisis response achieved 23.4% beneficiary achievement rate at 93.4% expenditure rate; climate shock activity delivered zero actual beneficiaries against 8,800 planned. SO4 system-strengthening met its annual target of 5 system components enhanced.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• STRATEGIC-level threat. CSP (2024–2028) funded at USD 23.42M against USD 95.23M total requirement. Six-month net funding requirement (July–December 2026): USD 2.77M. Immediate unfunded gaps: USD 4.8M lean season; USD 4.6M school feeding.^[1][2]
• Previously (2025 ACR): On an annual basis, WFP mobilised USD 15.496M in 2025 including multi-year balances carried forward; cumulatively, resources mobilised under the CSP reached approximately 64% of the CSP requirement to date. Funding was heavily earmarked, limiting in-year rebalancing flexibility.^[5]
• Active 2026 CSP donors include the Climate Adaptation Fund, DSM Firmenich, and the Joint SDG Fund—a thin base relative to need.^[2]
• Unconfirmed mobilisation pipeline: (1) Potential USD 5M AfDB matching grant under the Ending School-Aged Hunger initiative—if confirmed, would nearly close the school feeding gap; (2) Joint WFP–China Office–Sierra Leone proposal submitted to CIDCA (mid-2025, under review)—outcome determines viability of a trilateral South-South school feeding initiative.^[2][8]
• The CSP's funding outlook, described at plan inception as "poor" due to the changing international development assistance landscape, is now materially worse given the historic regional HNRP funding shortfall.^[3][4]

In The News

• Nouadhibou shipwrecks — 144 dead or missing off Mauritania (curated): The deadliest vessel reportedly departed from Gambia and drifted 25 days with only 38 survivors from an estimated 181+ aboard—a direct indicator of deepening livelihood stress in Gambia and the failure of safety nets to prevent irreversible negative coping.^[7]
• Gambia joins ARONCY regional cybersecurity alliance (curated): 43% of NGOs in Gambia have experienced cyberattacks; 70% lack incident-response capacity—a systemic vulnerability to WFP's implementing partner ecosystem covering beneficiary data, financial flows, and programme delivery.^[9]

---

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Complete lean season response absence	USD 4.8M gap confirmed unfunded; zero WFP response for 262,167 CH Phase 3-projected people during June–August 2026 peak hunger. Protection-of-life risk.	1. Emergency resource mobilisation targeting USD 4.8M gap — escalate to Regional Bureau and HQ immediately. 2. Coordinate with West Africa Regional Bureau on pooled lean season appeal consistent with regional CH deterioration.	Programme, Partnerships, RB West Africa	RB West Africa; HQ Emergency Division	WFP Gambia Country Briefs, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152) and July 2026 (doc_id: 4222090)	High
Strategic	School feeding programme collapse	USD 4.6M gap threatens 2026–2027 continuity for 164,000 children across 422 schools in Upper River, Central River North/South, and North Bank Regions. Risks reversing human capital gains and government handover trajectory.	1. Track AfDB USD 5M Ending School-Aged Hunger matching grant — escalate decision timeline with AfDB. 2. Accelerate CIDCA follow-up on WFP–China–Sierra Leone trilateral proposal (submitted mid-2025, still under review).	Programme, Partnerships, Government Relations	AfDB; CIDCA; School Meals Coalition	WFP Gambia Country Brief, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222090); May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)	High
Financial	Structural CSP underfunding eroding multi-year viability	CSP (2024–2028) funded at USD 23.42M against USD 95.23M requirement (~75% cumulative gap remaining). Thin donor base; funding heavily earmarked; no flexibility to rebalance across strategic outcomes.	1. Develop structured multi-donor engagement targeting non-traditional donors, IFIs, and private sector per CSP partnership action plan. 2. Leverage WFP leadership of Climate Resilient and Nutrition Sensitive Food Systems flagship (UNSDCF 2024–2028, co-designed with FAO and ITC) as coordinated donor engagement platform.	Partnerships, Finance, Programme	HQ Partnerships; RB West Africa	WFP Gambia Country Brief, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222090); ACR 2025	High
Operational	Climate shock compounding unfunded response	Below-average 2026 rainfall forecast (consistent with regional projections) risks additional shock layered on an already unfunded lean season response. ARC Replica policy (USD 200,000) is pre-positioned but insufficient at scale.	1. Activate ARC Replica USD 200,000 policy if trigger thresholds are met — confirm trigger monitoring is in place. 2. Integrate climate shock scenario into any lean season emergency appeal to donors.	Programme, Risk Management	ARC; RB West Africa	WFP Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152); July 2026 (doc_id: 4222090)	High
Operational	Implementing partner cyber vulnerability	43% of NGOs in Gambia have experienced cyberattacks; 70% lack incident-response capacity, per ARONCY July 2026 workshop data. Risk to beneficiary data, financial flows, and programme delivery through WFP's local partner ecosystem.	1. Conduct rapid partner cyber-risk assessment against WFP fiduciary and data-governance standards. 2. Engage with ARONCY framework as a low-cost vehicle for partner capacity building on minimum cybersecurity standards.	Partnerships, ICT, Finance	WFP ICT Division; ARONCY	ARONCY/NetHope workshop, Gambia, July 2026 (ref://3)	Medium
Strategic	Regional funding environment deterioration	West and Central Africa HNRP at 32% coverage (USD 1.74B of USD 5.40B as of 13 July 2026)—lowest in 2016–2026 series. Systemic donor contraction limits Gambia's prospects for emergency resource mobilisation within the regional envelope.	1. Escalate Gambia lean season funding gap within regional donor communications — frame as a regionally consistent CH deterioration, not a country-level outlier. 2. Explore South-South and IFI channels not subject to same ODA contraction dynamics.	Partnerships, RB West Africa	RB West Africa; OCHA	OCHA West and Central Africa Regional Funding Status, 13 July 2026 (doc_id: 4221308)	High
Operational	Atlantic migration pressure as livelihood stress indicator	July 2026 Nouadhibou shipwrecks (144 dead or missing), with a vessel departing Gambia, signal that food insecurity and livelihood failure are driving dangerous irregular migration — and that the absence of safety nets is generating irreversible negative coping outcomes beyond WFP's operational visibility.	1. Use migration mortality data as an early warning proxy for safety net collapse — include in donor-facing messaging on lean season funding gap. 2. Monitor whether returned or deported migrants create additional caseload pressure on already unfunded lean season response.	Programme, Advocacy	Mixed Migration Centre; UNHCR	Mixed Migration Centre Q2 2026 Report (doc_id: 4222470); UNHCR/Nouadhibou July 2026 (ref://2)	Medium

---

More than 12 documents were reviewed covering November 2025–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 27 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The CSP total funded figure varies slightly across reporting periods: WFP Country Brief November–December 2025 (doc_id: 4194257) states USD 25M received to date, while WFP Country Briefs May and July 2026 (doc_ids: 4213152, 4222090) state USD 23.42M—likely reflecting different reporting dates or accounting adjustments; these figures are not composable and are treated separately. Additionally, the six-month net funding requirement is reported across three non-overlapping windows (USD 3.9M for Jan–Jun 2026; USD 9.5M for May–Oct 2026; USD 2.77M for Jul–Dec 2026) with different denominators and cannot be arithmetically combined; the most recent (Jul–Dec 2026, USD 2.77M) is used as the authoritative NFR. IPC/HDX quantitative feed shows zero Phase 3+ for the March–May 2025 observed period (likely a data population issue given an analysed population of zero), while WFP Country Briefs and CH analysis consistently confirm 167,941 Phase 3 for March–May 2026—the WFP Country Brief figures are adopted per lane authority.

Footnotes

1. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, July 2026 — World Food Programme, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222090)
2. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, May 2026 — World Food Programme, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213152)
3. West and Central Africa: 2026 Regional Funding Status — OCHA, 13 July 2026 (doc_id: 4221308)
4. WFP Gambia Country Strategic Plan 2024–2028 — World Food Programme (CSP context input)
5. WFP Gambia Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025 (ACR input)
6. ACLED/WFP VAM quantitative data — HDX, April–July 2026 (quantitative data input)
7. Rapport trimestriel sur la migration mixte: Afrique de l'Ouest, 2ème Trimestre 2026 — Mixed Migration Centre, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222470); ref://2
8. WFP The Gambia Country Brief, November–December 2025 — World Food Programme, January 2026 (doc_id: 4194257)
9. ARONCY/NetHope NGO Cybersecurity Workshop, Gambia — July 2026 (ref://3; ref://4)