Cambodia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Cambodia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 943,169 (Jun–Nov 2026)
Current Reach:	78,956 students assisted (reporting period to Jun 2026); 764 mt food + USD 817,864 cash transferred
Population IPC 3+:	N/A — no IPC classification available for Cambodia in the substrate

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Cambodia is simultaneously managing an active conflict-displacement response and an emerging climate-induced agricultural production risk. The December 2025 Cambodia–Thailand border conflict — still producing daily warning shots and recent military casualties as of mid-July 2026 — displaced families across Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey provinces.^[1] As of 15 March 2026, NCDM confirmed 36,500+ people displaced and unable to return home; however, news reporting from 17 July 2026 estimates the government-reported caseload at approximately 650,000 persons, with 20,000+ in protracted displacement due to continued Thai military presence in border communities.^[2,3] A ceasefire was reported as of mid-July 2026, though the border remains in an active low-intensity conflict posture.^[4]
• Seasonal flooding is actively redistributing landmines and ERWs across agricultural and settlement areas in the border zone, compounding movement and access constraints for displaced populations and WFP distribution teams.^[5]
• IMF lowered Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3% (from 4.8% in 2025), citing weaker domestic demand, higher energy prices, and rising inflation averaging 5.6%. A 47.8% drop in tourist arrivals (January–May 2026) and ~30% decline in Angkor Park revenues compound fiscal pressure. Approximately 1.2 million migrant workers returned from Thailand, sharply reducing household remittance income — a key food security buffer for border-province households.^[6]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, WFP is transitioning from direct implementer to technical enabler, with direct school feeding handing over fully to the Government by 2027. The border crisis has activated the contingency SO3 response, placing unplanned emergency demands on an otherwise development-oriented portfolio.^[7]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Chronic undernutrition constitutes a persistent baseline vulnerability: 22% stunting, 16% underweight, and 10% wasting among children under five nationally, with widespread micronutrient deficiencies.^[1]
• As of March 2026, the basic food basket rose to KHR 104,300 (+3.3% month-on-month), driven by border tensions and a mid-March fuel price spike. Vegetable price spikes recorded by WFP VAM (March 2026 data) are severe: cabbage (Chinese, raw) +53% m/m, mustard leaves +44%, water spinach +32% — signalling acute market stress in food categories critical to displaced and near-poor households.^[8,2]
• Drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions persisted across Cambodia in June 2026, producing confirmed reduced soil moisture and vegetation stress. NDVI below normal in four districts; severe seasonal rainfall deficit with 77 of 195 districts below 75% of normal — worst in Sesan at 65% of normal (Prey Veng, Kandal, Kampong Cham). El Niño onset is assessed at 80% probability for June–August 2026, persisting at 90% through November 2026.^[9,10]
• Previously (2025 ACR): approximately 15% of Cambodians remained near-poor; Cambodia–Thailand border conflict ultimately displaced 600,000+ and triggered return of ~900,000 migrant workers, amplifying food security vulnerabilities beyond CSP contingency assumptions.^[11]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening — multi-shock trajectory. Conflict displacement, economic contraction, climate-driven agricultural stress, and food price inflation are converging simultaneously.
• The July–October 2026 main cropping season is at elevated risk: FAO agrometeorological bulletin (11–20 July 2026) documents production-level risk to orchard and mixed-crop smallholders in the Northern Tonle Sap Basin, with early harvest of flood-exposed fruit plots and potential permanent tree loss cited as near-term indicators.^[9]
• ACLED data records 3 conflict events in June 2026 (0 fatalities), dropping to 0 events in July 2026 — consistent with the reported ceasefire, though the low event count likely reflects ACLED's lag on cross-border military incidents rather than confirmed de-escalation.^[12]
• Market fragmentation is deepening in conflict-affected sub-districts: trade has shifted from formal markets to village shops and mobile vendors, complicating vendor contracting, price monitoring, and quality assurance for CBT programmes.^[2]

WFP Operations:

• During the reporting period (to June 2026), WFP distributed 764 mt of food and transferred USD 817,864 in cash, assisting 78,956 students (49% female). Active donors include Cambodia, France, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.^[1]
• Government authorised 70 cooking days of school meals for 500 displaced students implemented via the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport (MoEYS) with WFP technical support. A six-month school feeding expansion in displacement sites begins July 2026 — the funded confirmation of USD 943,169 against the donor pipeline is the critical near-term gate.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (school feeding/social protection systems) achieved 114.8% beneficiary achievement rate at 81.5% expenditure rate; SO3 (contingency crisis response) reached 87.5% expenditure rate against its activated implementation plan, but the scale of displacement (600,000+) far exceeded the USD 500,000 contingency budget, with roughly half consumed by in-kind food assistance.^[11]
• IOM has launched a multi-sectoral recovery initiative in Preah Vihear province with planned geographic expansion into Oddar Meanchey and Banteay Meanchey — a coordination opportunity to avoid duplicating WFP's displacement response and to maximise complementarity.^[13]
• CBT modality is at risk in the most affected sub-districts. Feasibility assessment for in-kind or hybrid modality shift in fragmented-market areas should be prioritised within 30 days.^[2]

Funding Outlook:

• WFP requires USD 943,169 for June–November 2026 to sustain operations; the funded share against the donor pipeline is not confirmed in available documents. Confirmation before the July 2026 programme launch is time-sensitive to avoid a supply gap for 500 displaced students.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): annual expenditures reached approximately 61% of the needs-based plan (USD 11.07M spent against USD 16.94M needs). SO2 Activities 3 and 4 each spent below 50% of their respective needs-based plans, partly due to loss of USAID support — a structural gap that persists into 2026 and affects early warning and disaster risk management capacity precisely when climate monitoring demand is highest.^[11]
• Cumulative CSP funding gap stands at 20.6% since CSP start (2024–2028 plan window). Separately, the 2025 annual position of ~61% of needs-based plan funded reflects donor preference for SO1 (school feeding) over SO2 resilience activities — a structural imbalance that weakens WFP's capacity to respond to the climate and agricultural risks now materialising.^[7,11]
• If main cropping season hazard projections materialise into food security deterioration, a contingency budget review and NFR/donor engagement will be required in Q4 2026. Early donor signalling now reduces mobilisation lag. The USD 360 million Food Systems Roadmap financing target (five-year multi-stakeholder mobilisation) represents a structural long-term opportunity.^[1]

In The News

• Cambodia's Economic Environment Deteriorating Amid Conflict and Inflation (news): IMF's downgrade of Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3% and 5.6% inflation projection directly threaten household purchasing power among WFP's beneficiary populations; food price inflation risk warrants heightened VAM monitoring in urban and border-area markets.^[14]
• Seasonal Flooding Redistributing Landmines Across Cambodia's Agricultural Areas (news): Active ERW redistribution in border provinces where WFP conducts displacement response distributions creates movement constraints and protection risks for both beneficiaries and field teams; access route planning requires urgent review.^[5]
• 29,000 Displaced Persons Remain in Oddar Meanchey Temporary Settlements (news): Seven months post-conflict onset, protracted displacement with continued border closure confirms that WFP's July 2026 school feeding expansion addresses a sustained — not transitional — caseload, strengthening the case for multi-month donor commitments.^[15]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Funding gap threatening July 2026 displacement response launch	USD 943,169 June–November 2026 requirement not confirmed against donor pipeline before July 2026 programme launch; supply gap risk for 500 displaced students and broader displacement response.	1. Confirm funded share against donor pipeline immediately; initiate emergency donor outreach if gap confirmed. 2. Pre-position Q4 2026 NFR trigger linked to main season harvest outcomes.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation	RBB Resource Mobilisation	WFP Cambodia Country Brief, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)	High
Strategic	Main cropping season production shortfall from El Niño-linked climate hazards	Drier/warmer-than-normal June 2026 conditions; 77/195 districts below 75% of seasonal rainfall normal; NDVI depressed in four districts; El Niño 90% probability through November 2026 threatening July–October 2026 harvest.	1. Monitor agrometeorological indicators in Northern Tonle Sap Basin through main season; trigger contingency review if production losses confirmed. 2. Initiate early donor signalling now to reduce Q4 2026 mobilisation lag.	VAM, Programme, Resource Mobilisation	RBB VAM/ENSO analysis cell	Seasonal Monitoring Cambodia June 2026 (doc_id: 4221189); FAO Agrometeorological Bulletin 11–20 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221473); ENSO Analysis Cell Report (doc_id: 4217384)	High
Strategic	Displacement caseload materially exceeds WFP planning assumptions	News reporting (July 2026) estimates ~650,000 government-reported displaced vs. 36,500+ NCDM figure from March 2026; SO3 contingency budget already exhausted at USD 500,000; scale requires CSP revision.	1. Conduct joint rapid assessment with UNHCR and NCDM to establish verified current displacement figure. 2. Initiate CSP budget revision for SO3 if caseload confirmed above contingency threshold.	Emergency Coordinator, Programme	RBB, UNHCR, NCDM	WFP Cambodia Country Brief Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886); news ref://8; 2025 ACR	High
Operational	CBT modality disruption from market fragmentation in conflict-affected areas	Shift from formal markets to village shops/mobile vendors in conflict sub-districts complicates vendor contracting, price monitoring, and quality assurance. Continued CBT risks quality assurance failures.	1. Complete modality feasibility assessment for in-kind or hybrid approach in most affected sub-districts within 30 days. 2. Expand price monitoring to informal vendor networks.	Supply Chain, Programme, VAM	RBB Supply Chain	Market Situation Update Amid Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, March 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Strategic	Cross-border displacement flows unquantified; WFP Cambodia–Thailand deconfliction gap	Active or recently active interstate dispute; potential cross-border flows not captured in current response planning; WFP Thailand and WFP Cambodia operations risk insufficient deconfliction.	1. Initiate joint coordination meeting with WFP Thailand and UNHCR within 30 days to map cross-border caseloads. 2. Establish shared situation reporting protocol for border-province response.	Emergency Coordinator, Programme	RBB, WFP Thailand CO, UNHCR	WFP Cambodia Country Brief Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886); Market Situation Update Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Operational	ERW/landmine access constraints in displacement response areas	Seasonal flooding redistributing landmines and ERWs across agricultural and settlement areas in border provinces; direct risk to beneficiary movement and WFP field team access routes.	1. Coordinate with CMAA and HALO Trust/APOPO on updated contamination mapping for Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey distribution routes. 2. Incorporate ERW risk into access planning for July 2026 programme expansion.	Logistics, Security, Programme	UNDSS, CMAA, APOPO	News ref://6; UK-funded APOPO M2R project ref://19	Medium
Financial	SO2 resilience funding structural shortfall weakening climate response capacity	Activities 3 and 4 (food systems, early warning/DRM) each below 50% of needs-based plan expenditure in 2025 due to USAID funding loss; degrades WFP's capacity to support climate monitoring and shock-responsive social protection precisely when El Niño risk is highest.	1. Identify alternative donors for Activity 4 (early warning/DRM); approach climate thematic funds and KOICA given existing USD 9.75M partnership. 2. Leverage PRISM outputs to demonstrate anticipatory action value to prospective donors.	Resource Mobilisation, Programme	RBB, KOICA, Green Climate Fund	2025 ACR (KHM); 2024–2028 CSP (doc_id: CSP)	Medium
Operational	Economic deterioration reducing household food access among near-poor urban and border populations	IMF-flagged 5.6% inflation, 47.8% tourist arrival drop, return of ~1.2M migrant workers reducing remittances; food basket at KHR 104,300 (+3.3% MoM March 2026) with vegetable categories up 32–53% m/m.	1. Expand VAM market monitoring frequency in border provinces and urban centres. 2. Assess whether current CBT transfer values remain adequate against inflated food basket; adjust if purchasing power gap confirmed.	VAM, Programme	RBB VAM	News ref://4; Market Situation Update Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium

Note: Six documents were reviewed from the ReliefWeb-derived analysis corpus (March–July 2026), supplemented by the 2025 ACR, 2024–2028 CSP, ACLED/WFP VAM/GDACS quantitative feeds, and 20 news articles. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Displacement caseload discrepancy: The NCDM figure of 36,500+ displaced (as of 15 March 2026, sourced from WFP Market Situation Update doc_id 4204828) is the most authoritative substrate-verified figure; however, news reporting from 17 July 2026 (ref://8) cites a Cambodian government-reported caseload of approximately 650,000 persons, with 20,000+ in protracted displacement — a near-18-fold difference. The WFP substrate figure is adopted as the verified anchor; the news figure is noted as government-reported and unverified against WFP internal sources, but the magnitude warrants urgent joint assessment with NCDM and UNHCR to establish a current verified baseline.

Footnotes

1. WFP Cambodia Country Brief, June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)
2. Market Situation Update Amid Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict — World Food Programme, March 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)
3. News article ref://8 — Cambodia-Thailand border displacement, 17 July 2026
4. News article ref://7 — Cambodia-Thailand border conflict posture, 17 July 2026
5. News article ref://6 — Landmine/ERW redistribution from seasonal flooding, 16 July 2026
6. News article ref://4 — Cambodia economic deterioration, IMF downgrade, 18 July 2026
7. Cambodia Country Strategic Plan 2024–2028 — World Food Programme, 2024
8. WFP VAM Food Price Monitoring — World Food Programme, March 2026 (HDX)
9. Seasonal Monitoring in Cambodia (June 2026) — World Food Programme, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221189)
10. An Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook — IASC/IFRC/OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217384)
11. WFP Cambodia Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025
12. ACLED conflict data via HDX — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, July 2026
13. News article ref://15 — IOM multi-sectoral recovery initiative, Cambodia, 15 July 2026
14. News article ref://4 — IMF growth downgrade Cambodia, 18 July 2026
15. News article ref://16 — Protracted displacement Oddar Meanchey, 16 July 2026
16. Agrometeorological 10 Days Bulletin 11–20 July 2026, Northern Tonle Sap Basin — FAO/PEARL Project, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221473)