Cambodia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Cambodia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 943,169 required Jun–Nov 2026 (pipeline unconfirmed)
Current Reach:	78,956 students assisted (reporting period to Jun 2026); 500 displaced students receiving school meals from Jul 2026
Population IPC 3+:	N/A — no current IPC classification for Cambodia in substrate

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Cambodia faces two concurrent stressors: a protracted displacement caseload from the December 2025 Cambodia–Thailand border conflict, and an emerging agroclimate hazard threatening the July–October 2026 main cropping season. Active conflict-level events are low — ACLED records 2 events and 0 fatalities in July 2026 (down 33% from June) — but humanitarian consequences of the December 2025 conflict persist across at least Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey Provinces.^[1]
• News intelligence (July 2026) places the residual displaced caseload at approximately 20,000–30,000 persons, with multiple sources citing ~3,000 families still unable to return one year on. The authoritative NCDM figure of 36,500+ unable to return was recorded as of 15 March 2026; no updated official count exists in the substrate.^[2][3]
• UXO contamination across an estimated 3,872 sq km of seven border provinces constitutes a protracted protection and access constraint for WFP food assistance delivery in affected areas.^[4]
• Strait of Hormuz disruption following resumed US–Iran hostilities is driving fuel and fertiliser price shocks regionally; ASEAN foreign ministers have formally flagged food security and agricultural supply chain risks. Cambodia's import dependency on Gulf-sourced fuel amplifies this exposure, compounding existing food basket inflation.^[5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Chronic undernutrition underlies acute vulnerability: 22% stunting, 16% underweight, 10% wasting among children under five nationally (WFP Country Brief, June 2026).^[1]
• The basic food basket reached KHR 104,300 in March 2026 (+3.3% month-on-month), driven by border tensions and a fuel price spike; vegetable prices showed sharper spikes — cabbage (chinese, raw) +53%, water spinach +32%, mustard leaves +44% month-on-month as of March 2026.^[2][6]
• Severe seasonal rainfall deficit: as of dekad ending 1 July 2026, 77 of 195 districts recorded rainfall below 75% of normal, with the worst in Prey Veng, Kandal, and Kampong Cham (Sesan at 65% of normal); NDVI vegetation stress confirmed in 4 districts. This corroborates WFP Seasonal Monitoring (June 2026), which flags elevated production-shortfall risk for the July–October 2026 main cropping season in northern and northwestern food-producing zones.^[7][8]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, Cambodia's structural vulnerability profile includes 15% near-poor, food insecurity at 27.5% (2021 baseline), and widespread micronutrient deficiencies — compounded by the return of approximately 900,000 migrant workers and reduced remittances following the border conflict (per ACR 2025).^[9][10]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening trajectory: displacement remains unresolved seven months post-ceasefire; agroclimate indicators are deteriorating ahead of the critical cropping window; food basket inflation is persistent.
• El Niño onset confirmed at 80% probability (WMO) for June–August 2026, with 90% probability of persistence through November 2026 — directly amplifying Cambodia's rainfall deficit risk and potential for rice production shortfalls across the main season.^[11]
• Previously (ACR 2025): WFP Cambodia spent approximately 61% of its needs-based plan (USD 11.07M against USD 16.94M needs). SO1 achieved 114.78% beneficiary achievement rate at 81.54% expenditure rate. SO2 exceeded its implementation-plan expenditure rate (115.69%) but Activities 3 and 4 each spent below 50% of their needs-based plans, attributable to USAID funding loss. SO3 (contingency crisis response) achieved 87.45% expenditure rate against its activated implementation plan, though the scale of displacement (600,000+ at peak) exceeded the contingency budget.^[9]
• Cumulative CSP funding gap stands at 20.58% since CSP start (2024); annual underfunding is the primary constraint, not pipeline collapse — but the unconfirmed status of the USD 943,169 June–November 2026 requirement introduces acute near-term risk.

WFP Operations:

• WFP distributed 764 mt of food and transferred USD 817,864 in cash during the reporting period, assisting 78,956 students (49% female) under the school feeding programme.^[1]
• Government (MoEYS) authorised 70 cooking days of school meals for 500 displaced students with WFP technical support; WFP is expanding school feeding in displacement sites for six months beginning July 2026 — the programme launch creates programmatic risk if USD 943,169 is not confirmed against the donor pipeline before that date.^[1]
• Active donors include Cambodia, France, and Japan; pipeline status against the six-month requirement is not confirmed in available sources.
• The shift from formal markets to village shops and mobile vendors in conflict-affected border areas complicates vendor contracting, price monitoring, and quality assurance for cash-based transfer programmes; hybrid or in-kind modalities may be required in the most affected sub-districts.^[2]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, SO1 targets full handover of school feeding to Government by 2027; the MoEYS channel activated for displaced students represents an institutionalised government–WFP delivery mechanism that supports this transition. The USD 360 million Food Systems Roadmap financing target (five-year, multi-stakeholder) remains a strategic mobilisation opportunity.^[10]
• WFP co-chaired the Humanitarian Response Forum (HRF), coordinating 40+ agencies during the border crisis — a pre-established mechanism that enabled rapid joint assessments (per ACR 2025).^[9]

Funding Outlook:

• USD 943,169 is required for June–November 2026; no confirmed donor pipeline figure or funded amount is available in the substrate. The July 2026 school feeding expansion launch proceeds against an unconfirmed funding position — the principal near-term financial risk.^[1]
• Previously (ACR 2025): USAID funding loss reduced Activity 4 (early warning/disaster risk management) budget by approximately 50%; Activity 3 (food systems) also underfunded. The global funding environment — reflected in the 26% reduction in the Bangladesh JRP and 89% drop in US resettlement arrivals — signals continued pressure on Cambodia's donor base.^[9][12]
• Cumulative CSP funding gap: 20.58% since 2024 start. Annual expenditure reached ~61% of needs-based plan in 2025. Early donor signalling ahead of potential Q4 2026 food security deterioration — if agroclimate hazards materialise — would reduce mobilisation lag for contingency response under SO3.

In The News

• UXO Contamination and Protracted Displacement Across Cambodian Border Provinces (news, 2026-07-25): UXO contamination across 3,872 sq km of seven border provinces constitutes a direct access and protection constraint for WFP food distribution in Banteay Meanchey, Oddar Meanchey, Preah Vihear, and Pursat; delivery route planning must account for contamination mapping.^[4]
• Cambodia–Thailand Border Displacement: Protracted Phase (news, 2026-07-25): Oddar Meanchey and adjacent provinces show no near-term resolution pathway for residual displacement; with approximately 20,000–30,000 people still displaced, WFP's July 2026 programme expansion requires confirmed funding and contingency modality planning.^[3]
• Strait of Hormuz Disruption and ASEAN Food Security (SCMP Asia, immediate): Collapsed US–Iran ceasefire driving fuel and fertiliser price shocks across Southeast Asia; ASEAN ministers explicitly flagged food security and agricultural supply chain risks — directly relevant to Cambodia's food basket inflation trajectory and WFP operational costs.^[5]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Funding gap for Jun–Nov 2026 displacement response	USD 943,169 six-month requirement not confirmed against donor pipeline; July 2026 school feeding expansion for 500 displaced students in Banteay Meanchey proceeds without confirmed funding	1. Confirm pipeline status against USD 943,169 before July programme launch. 2. Initiate immediate donor engagement with Cambodia, France, Japan on gap closure.	Programme, Resource Management, Partnerships	RBB, Donor Relations	WFP Cambodia Country Brief, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)	High
Strategic	Main cropping season production shortfall (Jul–Oct 2026)	77/195 districts below 75% seasonal rainfall normal; NDVI stress confirmed; El Niño 90% persistence probability through Nov 2026; Northern Tonle Sap Basin orchard plots at risk of early harvest and permanent tree loss	1. Initiate early donor signalling now for potential Q4 2026 contingency activation under SO3. 2. Monitor Northern Tonle Sap Basin agrometeorological indicators as trigger thresholds for budget revision request.	VAM, Programme, Partnerships	RBB, FAO/PEARL	Seasonal Monitoring Cambodia Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4221189); FAO Agrometeorological Bulletin 11–20 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221473)	High
Operational	Market functionality breakdown undermining CBT delivery	Formal market shift to village shops and mobile vendors in border-affected areas; complicates vendor contracting, price monitoring, QA in Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey sub-districts	1. Reassess CBT vendor contracting in border-affected areas within 30 days. 2. Pre-authorise hybrid/in-kind modality switch for sub-districts where formal market access is most constrained.	Supply Chain, Programme, VAM	RBB	Market Situation Update, Cambodia–Thailand Border Conflict, Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Strategic	Cross-border displacement flows unquantified	Active inter-state border dispute; WFP Cambodia and WFP Thailand operations not yet formally deconflicted; UNHCR engagement on cross-border flows absent from substrate	1. Establish bilateral coordination mechanism between WFP KHM and WFP THA within 30 days. 2. Engage UNHCR on potential cross-border caseload quantification.	Programme, Partnerships, Protection	RBB, WFP Thailand CO, UNHCR	WFP Cambodia Country Brief, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886); Market Situation Update, Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Operational	UXO contamination restricting humanitarian access	3,872 sq km of seven border provinces contaminated; direct constraint on food distribution routes and beneficiary safety in Banteay Meanchey, Oddar Meanchey, Preah Vihear, and Pursat	1. Integrate UXO contamination mapping into delivery route planning for border-province operations. 2. Coordinate with CMAC and HALO Trust on cleared corridor identification.	Logistics, Programme, Safety & Security	RBB, CMAC	News intelligence, Jul 2026 (ref://13)	Medium
Financial	USAID funding loss reducing early warning and food systems capacity	Activity 3 and Activity 4 each spent below 50% of needs-based plans in 2025 due to USAID loss; early warning/DRM capacity at roughly 50% of planned; compounds exposure to emerging agroclimate shock	1. Identify alternative donors for Activity 4 (EW/DRM) and Activity 3 (food systems) — EU, KOICA, climate funds. 2. Leverage KOICA USD 9.75M partnership for relevant technical assistance scope.	Resource Management, Partnerships, Programme	RBB, KOICA, EU	ACR 2025; WFP Cambodia Country Brief, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)	Medium
Strategic	Strait of Hormuz disruption amplifying food basket inflation	Resumed US–Iran hostilities disrupting ~60% of Asia's crude oil imports; fuel price shocks cascading into Cambodia's food basket (already +3.3% MoM Mar 2026); fertiliser supply chain risk for upcoming cropping season	1. Accelerate VAM food price monitoring cadence in border-affected and agricultural zones. 2. Factor sustained fuel price elevation into contingency budget calculations for Q4 2026.	VAM, Logistics, Programme	RBB, ASEAN regional networks	The Diplomat / SCMP (ref://1, ref://3); Market Situation Update, Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Operational	Displacement figures stale; caseload trajectory unknown	NCDM figure of 36,500+ frozen at 15 March 2026; news sources cite 20,000–30,000 residually displaced as of Jul 2026 — discrepancy unresolved; no IPC classification for conflict-affected populations	1. Commission joint rapid assessment with UNHCR/NCDM to update displacement count and food security status in Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey. 2. Establish monthly displacement tracking cadence linked to HRF.	VAM, Programme, Partnerships	RBB, UNHCR, NCDM	WFP Cambodia Country Brief, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886); news intelligence Jul 2026 (ref://19, ref://24)	Low

Note: More than 10 documents were reviewed covering March–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 27 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The authoritative NCDM displacement figure of 36,500+ (as of 15 March 2026, per WFP Market Situation Update doc_id: 4204828) diverges materially from multiple July 2026 news sources citing 20,000–30,000 residually displaced (ref://24, ref://27, ref://28) and one source referencing ~3,000 families still unable to return (ref://23, ref://30); the NCDM figure is the authoritative floor but is four months stale, while news estimates are unverified and methodologically inconsistent — a joint rapid assessment is needed to resolve this gap before programme planning for the July 2026 expansion can be accurately calibrated.

Footnotes

1. WFP Cambodia Country Brief, June 2026 — World Food Programme, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)
2. Market Situation Update Amid Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict — World Food Programme, Mar 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)
3. News intelligence: Cambodia–Thailand border displacement, protracted phase — Jul 2026 (ref://15, ref://24)
4. News intelligence: UXO contamination, Cambodian border provinces — Jul 2026 (ref://13, ref://35)
5. News intelligence: Strait of Hormuz disruption and ASEAN food security — SCMP Asia / The Diplomat, Jul 2026 (ref://5, ref://1)
6. WFP VAM Food Price Monitoring, Cambodia — WFP, Mar 2026 (national average, HDX)
7. WFP VAM Rainfall/NDVI Anomaly Data — WFP, dekad to 1 Jul 2026 (HDX)
8. Seasonal Monitoring in Cambodia (June 2026) — World Food Programme, Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221189)
9. WFP Cambodia Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025
10. WFP Cambodia Country Strategic Plan 2024–2028 — World Food Programme, 2024
11. An Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook — IASC/IFRC/OCHA, Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4217384)
12. Quarterly Mixed Migration Update: Asia and the Pacific, Q2 2026 — Mixed Migration Centre, Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4222467)