Cambodia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Cambodia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 943,169 (Jun–Nov 2026)
Current Reach:	78,956 students assisted (school feeding reporting period, per Jun 2026 Country Brief)
Population IPC 3+:	N/A — no IPC phase classification in available sources

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Cambodia faces a compound emergency: the December 2025 Cambodia–Thailand border conflict continues to displace civilians across at least Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey provinces, while drier-than-normal agroclimatic conditions threaten the July–October 2026 main cropping season.^[1,2]
• As of 15 March 2026, NCDM confirmed 36,500+ people displaced and unable to return home; a UN Special Rapporteur mission ([ref://10]) subsequently confirmed approximately 20,000 border-displaced persons with returns blocked by Thai military occupation of disputed territory — the gap between figures reflects different reference dates and methodologies, not a resolved situation.^[1,3]
• Thailand completed a 1.3km reinforced border fence section on 22 July 2026, signalling structural rather than temporary border closure; two-way Cambodia–Thailand trade collapsed ~40% in the first five months of 2026 to US$1.15 billion, and nearly 1 million returning Cambodian migrant workers face unemployment and microloan debt distress.^[ref://1]
• UXO contamination covers an estimated 3,872 sq km across seven western and northern border provinces, directly impeding safe return of displaced persons and threatening agricultural land access in subsistence-farming communities.^[ref://18]
• Under the 2024–2028 CSP, Cambodia's crisis-response outcome (SO3) was designed as a dormant contingency — the border conflict has activated it, consuming roughly half the USD 500,000 contingency budget by end-2025, with the scale of displacement (600,000+ affected per ACR) exceeding original design parameters.^[4,5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Chronic undernutrition underpins pre-existing vulnerability: 22% of children under 5 are stunted, 16% underweight, and 10% wasted nationally.^[1]
• No IPC phase classification is available for Cambodia in the current substrate; food security severity by population cannot be quantified from available sources.
• Food prices signal acute purchasing-power stress: the basic food basket reached KHR 104,300 in March 2026 (+3.3% MoM), driven by border tensions and a mid-March fuel price spike.^[2] Vegetable prices recorded extreme MoM increases to mid-March 2026: Chinese cabbage (raw) +53%, bok choy +45%, water spinach +32%, cauliflower +22%.^[6]
• Consumer inflation is projected at 5.1% in 2026, compressing household purchasing power for food-insecure populations.^[ref://31]
• Climate data confirm severe seasonal rainfall deficit: as of dekad ending 11 July 2026, 133 of 195 districts recorded 3-month rainfall below 75% of normal (worst: Stueng Saen at 59% of normal), with NDVI below normal in 9 districts confirming agricultural stress in Prey Veng, Battambang, and Siemreap.^[6]
• Early harvest of flood-exposed fruit plots and potential permanent tree loss in the Northern Tonle Sap Basin (11–20 July 2026 period) indicate production-level risk for orchard smallholders.^[7]

Trend Indicators:

• Conflict intensity: ACLED records 2 events, 0 fatalities in July 2026 (down from 3 events in June 2026), against a 12-month average of 3 events/month — low intensity but displacement and border closure effects persist structurally.^[6]
• Market structure shift: as of March 2026, formal markets in conflict-affected areas are being replaced by village shops and mobile vendors, complicating CBT vendor contracting, price monitoring, and quality assurance.^[2]
• El Niño confirmed onset: WMO assigns 80% probability of onset June–August 2026 and 90% probability of persistence through November 2026; Cambodia is not listed among the 15 countries with pre-arranged anticipatory action frameworks (USD 54M total, Asia-Pacific), leaving it unprotected by existing AA mechanisms.^[8]
• ADB has approved a USD 450M dual-country crisis-support package for Cambodia and Sri Lanka targeting Middle East conflict-driven commodity price spillovers, with potential to scale to USD 688M with co-financiers — a complementary fiscal stabilization signal for WFP's beneficiary population.^[ref://8]

WFP Operations:

• Per the June 2026 Country Brief (covering the most recent reporting period), WFP distributed 764 mt of food and transferred USD 817,864 in cash, assisting 78,956 students (49% female); active donors include Cambodia, France, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.^[1]
• The Government authorized 70 cooking days of school meals for 500 displaced students via MoEYS with WFP technical support; WFP is expanding school feeding in displacement sites for six months beginning July 2026.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (school feeding/nutrition systems) achieved 114.8% beneficiary achievement rate at 81.5% expenditure rate, with 133,021 beneficiaries against 115,898 planned, driven by expanded HGSFP coverage. SO2 (food systems/DRM) recorded 124.5% beneficiary achievement at 115.7% expenditure rate, though Activities 3 and 4 each spent below 50% of their needs-based plans due to USAID funding loss. SO3 (crisis response) achieved 87.5% expenditure rate against its activated implementation plan of USD 218,638, but the displacement scale exceeded contingency design.^[5]
• The 2024–2028 CSP targets full government handover of school feeding to HGSFP by 2027, with WFP's role exclusively technical assistance by 2028; the border crisis creates pressure to sustain direct delivery beyond the transition timeline.^[4]
• WFP co-chairs the Humanitarian Response Forum (HRF), coordinating 40+ agencies during the border crisis — a key partnership asset for the displacement response.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• WFP requires USD 943,169 over June–November 2026; funded status against the current donor pipeline is not confirmed in available documents — no source states whether this requirement is fully, partially, or unfunded.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): annual expenditures reached approximately 61% of the needs-based plan (USD 11.07M spent against USD 16.94M needs); the cumulative CSP funding gap stands at -20.6% since CSP start. These are separate accounting frames — annual performance and cumulative CSP position — and should not be combined.^[5]
• Loss of USAID support has created a structural gap in Activity 4 (early warning/DRM) at roughly 50% of planned budget — a gap that becomes operationally significant precisely as climate hazard signals intensify for Q4 2026.^[5]
• The USD 360M Food Systems Roadmap financing target (five-year multi-stakeholder mobilization with WFP support) represents a longer-term resilience investment opportunity but is not a near-term funding source for the current emergency.^[1]
• Early donor signalling on potential Q4 2026 contingency requirements is recommended now, before climate hazard projections materialize into food security deterioration requiring a budget revision.^[3]

In The News

• Cambodia–Thailand Border: Economic Disruption and Returnee Crisis (SCMP Asia): ~1 million Cambodian migrant workers have returned from Thailand since the conflict began; trade collapsed ~40% in five months; the 22 July border fence reinforcement signals structural closure — directly expanding WFP's potential caseload and reducing household food purchasing power in western provinces.^[ref://1]
• UXO Contamination Across 3,872 sq km of Border Provinces (news): Cluster munitions contamination across seven provinces blocks safe return of 20,000+ displaced persons and threatens agricultural land in subsistence-farming communities; compounds WFP's displacement response planning assumptions.^[ref://18]
• ADB USD 450M Crisis Support Package for Cambodia (news): Multilateral fiscal support for Cambodia targeting Middle East-driven commodity price shocks; potential scale to USD 688M with co-financiers — complements WFP's beneficiary population stabilization but does not substitute for humanitarian food assistance.^[ref://8]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Six-month funding gap threatening displacement and school feeding response	USD 943,169 required June–November 2026; funded status unconfirmed against donor pipeline before July 2026 programme launch. School feeding for 500 displaced students (70 cooking days) and broader displacement response at risk.	1. Confirm funded/unfunded status against donor pipeline immediately. 2. Initiate emergency donor signalling to France, Japan, Korea — existing active donors — to close gap before Q3 pipeline break.	Programme, Partnerships, Finance	RBB Resource Mobilization	WFP Cambodia Country Brief, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)	High
Strategic	Main cropping season production shortfall (July–October 2026)	133/195 districts below 75% of 3-month normal rainfall; NDVI below normal in 9 districts; El Niño onset 80–90% probability through November 2026. Cambodia excluded from USD 54M AA framework.	1. Activate early donor signalling now for potential Q4 2026 contingency budget revision. 2. Monitor soil moisture, NDVI, and rainfall anomalies in northern/northwestern regions as programme scale-up triggers.	VAM, Programme, Partnerships	RBB, ENSO Analysis Cell	Seasonal Monitoring in Cambodia June 2026 (doc_id: 4221189); Agrometeorological Bulletin 11–20 July 2026 (doc_id: 4221473)	High
Strategic	Unquantified cross-border displacement flows requiring bilateral coordination	Displacement active across at least Banteay Meanchey and Oddar Meanchey provinces; cross-border flows between Cambodia and Thailand unquantified; Thai border fence reinforcement may redirect or suppress return movements. Discrepancy between NCDM (36,500+, March 2026) and UN Rapporteur (20,000, July 2026) unresolved.	1. Establish joint WFP Cambodia–WFP Thailand–UNHCR coordination mechanism with shared displacement tracking. 2. Commission rapid joint assessment to reconcile displacement figures and quantify cross-border caseload.	Emergency Preparedness, Partnerships, Protection	RBB, UNHCR	WFP Cambodia Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4215886); Market Situation Update March 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	High
Operational	CBT programme delivery disrupted by market structure shift	As of March 2026, formal markets replaced by village shops and mobile vendors in conflict-affected sub-districts; complicates vendor contracting, price monitoring, and quality assurance.	1. Review CBT modalities in affected sub-districts; adapt toward in-kind or hybrid distribution where vendor network is insufficient. 2. Adjust price monitoring protocols to capture informal vendor pricing.	Supply Chain, Programme, VAM	RBB Supply Chain	Market Situation Update March 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)	Medium
Operational	UXO contamination blocking agricultural land access and displaced returns	3,872 sq km across seven border provinces contaminated with cluster munitions; 20,000+ displaced persons unable to return; agricultural land denial threatens food production and livelihood recovery in subsistence-farming communities.	1. Incorporate UXO-affected zones into WFP food security monitoring and targeting. 2. Coordinate with CMAC and demining partners on land release timelines to inform return and recovery programming.	Programme, VAM, Partnerships	CMAC, UNDP Mine Action	UN Special Rapporteur statement July 2026 (ref://18); news (ref://19)	Medium
Financial	USAID funding loss creating structural gap in early warning and DRM activities	Activity 4 (early warning/disaster risk management) operating at ~50% of planned needs-based budget following USAID withdrawal — precisely when El Niño and climate hazard signals require enhanced monitoring capacity.	1. Prioritize alternative donor outreach (EU, KOICA, climate funds) for Activity 4 gap. 2. Leverage PRISM and existing government partnerships to sustain early warning outputs within reduced budget.	Partnerships, Finance, Programme	RBB, KOICA	2025 ACR (acr://2025); CSP 2024–2028 (csp://2024-2028)	Medium
Strategic	Macroeconomic shocks compounding household food purchasing power erosion	Projected 5.1% inflation in 2026; remittance loss from ~1M returnees; 40% trade collapse with Thailand; US tariffs of 10–12.5% on ASEAN economies including key food exporters (Vietnam, Thailand) threatening regional commodity costs and WFP procurement.	1. Update transfer value methodology to account for inflation trajectory. 2. Monitor ASEAN tariff impacts on WFP regional procurement and adjust sourcing if commodity costs rise materially.	VAM, Procurement, Programme	RBB VAM, ODP	SCMP Asia (ref://1); SCMP Asia tariff analysis (ref://3); news (ref://31)	Medium
Operational	CSP transition timeline under pressure from sustained emergency demands	The 2024–2028 CSP targets full school feeding handover to government by 2027; sustained displacement response requiring direct WFP delivery risks delaying transition milestones and extending dependency beyond planned exit.	1. Maintain separation between emergency response (SO3) and transition programming (SO1) in budget and reporting to protect handover milestones. 2. Assess with MoEYS whether government can absorb expanded displacement-site school feeding within HGSFP.	Programme, Partnerships	RBB, MoEYS	CSP 2024–2028 (csp://2024-2028); 2025 ACR (acr://2025)	Low

Note: More than 9 documents were reviewed covering the period March–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 3 August 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Displaced persons figures are inconsistent across sources and time points: NCDM via WFP Market Monitoring (March 2026) recorded 36,500+ unable to return home^[2]; a UN Special Rapporteur mission (July 2026) confirmed approximately 20,000 border-displaced persons with returns blocked by Thai military occupation^[ref://10]; a further news report (July 2026) cites approximately 30,000 IDPs still unable to return one year after conflict onset^[ref://33] — these figures reflect different reference dates, methodologies, and geographic scope rather than a resolved or improving situation, and no single authoritative current caseload figure can be confirmed from available sources.

Footnotes

1. WFP Cambodia Country Brief, June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215886)
2. Market Situation Update Amid Cambodia–Thailand Border Conflict — World Food Programme, March 2026 (doc_id: 4204828)
3. Seasonal Monitoring in Cambodia — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4221189)
4. Cambodia Country Strategic Plan 2024–2028 — World Food Programme (csp://2024-2028)
5. Cambodia Annual Country Report 2025 — World Food Programme (acr://2025)
6. Quantitative Data: ACLED conflict data, WFP VAM food price monitoring, WFP-VAM rainfall/NDVI anomalies — HDX/WFP, data as of July 2026
7. Agrometeorological 10-day Bulletin for 11–20 July 2026 Across the Northern Tonle Sap Basin of the PEARL Project — FAO, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221473)
8. An Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook — IASC/IFRC/OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217384)