Pakistan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Pakistan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 15M (6-month NFR as of Jan 2026); CSP 2023–2027 gap ~USD 243M of USD 787M total requirement
Current Reach:	366,000 women and children (BNP, Jan 2026); 375,000 flood-affected (cumulative to Jan 2026)
Population IPC 3+:	10.6M in IPC Phase 3+ (20% of 53.4M analysed population, Mar 2026), up 40% vs Dec 2025

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Pakistan is in an acute inflationary and supply-chain stress phase as of June 2026. Headline CPI hit 10.9% YoY in April 2026 (up from 7.3% in March), driven by transport (+30% YoY contribution) and energy. One news source reports general inflation reached 11.7% in May 2026 with fuel prices up 62–94% YoY, though this requires corroboration against official data.^[1]
• Fuel costs are rendering WFP operational baselines obsolete: Super Petrol at PKR 393.4/litre (+54.5% YoY) and HSD at PKR 380.2/litre (+47.0% YoY) as of April 2026. WFP VAM HDX data records diesel at PKR 410/L as of 15 April (+27% MoM). Balochistan and KP — with the longest inter-provincial supply chains — carry maximum exposure. All trucking, last-mile delivery, and field mission cost projections must be recalibrated immediately.^[2]
• The Afghanistan–Pakistan border closure (since 12 October 2025, blocking ~8,800 MT of food commodities) is compounding domestic supply shocks alongside Middle East conflict-driven fuel escalation. WFP Afghanistan's tripled transport costs via alternative corridors generate secondary pressure on Pakistan-side operations at Torkham and Spin Boldak.^[3]
• Regional conflict: The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since late February 2026 (US-Iran conflict), with Dawn (Pakistan) reporting it as the world's largest-ever oil supply crisis, reducing OPEC+ output by ~22%. EU High Representative Kallas explicitly linked this to fertiliser supply disruption risks during a June 2026 Pakistan visit. This is the primary external driver of Pakistan's fuel and food inflation.^[4]
• Conflict intensity is escalating domestically: ACLED records 1,310 events and 752 fatalities in May 2026, up 26% and 62% respectively from April 2026 (1,038 events, 465 fatalities). Political violence accounts for 371 events and 606 fatalities; civilian targeting accounts for 164 events and 146 fatalities. Counter-terrorism operations in KP districts have caused documented civilian casualties, deepening access constraints in tribal areas where WFP maintains programming.^[5]
• A formal multi-day GLOF/landslide alert across ten KP districts and AJK through 6 June 2026 places the Karakoram Highway at risk of temporary closure, with direct implications for last-mile access to mountain communities.^[6]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC (March 2026): 10.6 million people in Phase 3+ Crisis (20% of 53.4M analysed population), including 1.4 million in Phase 4 Emergency — a 40% increase in Phase 3+ from December 2025 (7.5M). The analysed population expanded significantly between analyses (35.6M → 53.4M), making percentage comparison more reliable than absolute figures.^[7]
• Food basket: PKR 15,758/month (USD 57) for a 6-person household (87 kg wheat flour + 9 kg pulses + 5L cooking oil) as of 21 May 2026, 4% above the 26 February pre-conflict baseline of PKR 15,150, following four consecutive weekly increases since 30 April. Wheat flour at PKR 121/kg, up 6% from the baseline of PKR 114/kg — the primary inflation driver to monitor.^[8]
• Note: WFP VAM HDX data (15 April 2026) shows wheat flour at PKR 110/kg nationally, below the 21 May weekly report figure of PKR 121/kg — the trajectory is clearly upward and the May weekly report is the more recent and authoritative value.^[2,8]
• Chronic baseline (as of 2024 ACR): 40% stunting in children aged 6–59 months; 25 million out-of-school children; 55% rural multidimensional poverty. ACAPS (June 2025) estimated approximately 17M in IPC Phase 3/4 nationally, with 6M at Emergency level concentrated in KP and Balochistan — a baseline against which current IPC data represents partial coverage.^[9]
• Post-flood gap: PRCS covered only ~70% of the National Cash Working Group-endorsed urban MEB of PKR 64,246/HH/month in 2025 flood-affected areas; peak displacement reached 2.5 million. A residual food/multi-sector assistance gap in flood-affected urban areas remains unquantified in terms of remaining caseload.^[10]
• Pakistan's structural water crisis — decades of storage underinvestment, inter-provincial inequity, and the April 2025 suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty — poses a sustained, worsening food production risk compounding all above shocks.^[11]

Trend Indicators:

• Food basket trajectory: four consecutive weekly increases since 30 April 2026; any further increase beyond PKR 15,758 signals accelerating food access deterioration. CPI MoM more than doubled from 1.2% (March) to 2.5% (April) — sustained MoM acceleration above 2% signals continuing YoY pressure.^[2,8]
• Conflict: May 2026 ACLED data shows a sharp single-month spike in both events and fatalities. The 12-month average is 1,029 events/587 fatalities; May 2026 exceeded both by 27% and 28% respectively, suggesting deterioration rather than a transient spike.^[5]
• Afghan returnee flows: 111,852 Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan over 10–23 May 2026 (~7,990/day), with more than 5 million having returned since late 2023. Uncoordinated bilateral deportation timelines from Islamabad make demand forecasting extremely difficult without inter-country data sharing. Flows at this rate will rapidly exhaust unearmarked emergency response buffers on the Afghanistan side, increasing pressure on Pakistan-side border operations.^[12]
• Anticipated 2026 monsoon: An Arabian Sea marine heatwave is projected to intensify cyclone activity and disrupt monsoon patterns over southern Pakistan, with Karachi and Sindh at elevated flood risk between mid-August and mid-September 2026. WFP's National Anticipatory Action Strategy launched April 2026 — a two-month window before monsoon onset — leaving limited time to embed provincial protocols before the next flood season.^[13]
• Positive signal: 133 WFP-supported assets achieved 100% Asset Detection Indicator (ADI) score as of March 2026, confirming full visibility of the asset portfolio — a strong evidence base for donor reporting.^[14]

WFP Operations:

• Current reach (as of January 2026, per WFP Country Brief February 2026): 366,000 women and children receiving specialised nutritious food across 556 Benazir Nashonuma Programme (BNP) centres in 157 districts; 375,000 flood-affected people assisted cumulatively, including 100,000 in January 2026. WFP explicitly flagged additional resources required to scale up Sindh recovery activities.^[13]
• BNP (2024 ACR): Previously (2024 ACR): SO2 reached 256% of planned beneficiary achievement rate at 127% expenditure rate, driven by the two-year BNP agreement (USD 193M) booked in mid-2024 with drawdown not tied to calendar year. 2.2M pregnant/breastfeeding women and children under 2 active under a renewed agreement across 568 centres in 158 districts.^[15]
• Performance gaps (2024 ACR): SO1 reached 81% beneficiary achievement rate at 66% expenditure rate; SO5 reached 12% expenditure rate against plan (self-funded ODS service). Activity 1 (emergency food assistance) funded at only 15% of needs — the most critical underfunding signal in the portfolio.^[15]
• Cash/voucher transfer value erosion: Transfer values calibrated to the pre-conflict basket of PKR 15,150 are now insufficient to cover a 2,100 kcal/person/day ration for a 6-person household. Immediate review and upward adjustment of transfer values is required against the 21 May basket of PKR 15,758/month.^[8]
• As of September 2024 (per WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09): The community feedback mechanism remained effectively non-functional — 248 calls received across three provinces in 2023 for a programme serving 1.3M beneficiaries — and LNS procurement from a single supplier since 2016 using pre-July 2023 corporate specifications lacked a formalised waiver. These findings remain operationally relevant; the audit's corrective action timelines (several extending to March 2025) should be confirmed as closed.^[16]
• AJK/border security: WFP field operations in AJK-adjacent areas require formalised security coordination with IFRC and PRCS, which are operating under established country security plans including medical evacuation contingencies.^[10]

Funding Outlook:

• 6-month NFR: USD 15M as of January 2026 (WFP Country Brief). CSP 2023–2027 total gap: ~USD 243M of USD 787M required (~31% unfunded). Previously (October 2025 Country Brief): 6-month NFR was USD 25.78M for November 2025–April 2026, indicating the near-term pipeline has tightened since then.^[13,17]
• No WFP Pakistan-specific donor contribution amounts or funding runway months data are present in the current substrate — a critical intelligence gap flagged by the analysis aggregator. US donor exposure (PRM + USDA) requires quantification; global US aid reduction trends in 2025–2026 represent a material concentration risk.^[13]
• Regional underfunding context: The 2026 Afghanistan HNRP (USD 1.71B) was ~14% funded as of May 2026; UNHCR Iran's 2026 requirement (USD 140M) was 15% funded. Systemic underfunding across the Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan corridor will compress WFP's capacity to absorb returnee caseload shocks.^[18]
• PKR depreciation opportunity: ~15% PKR depreciation increased CHF purchasing power during the DREF MDRPK028 response, yielding CHF 87,483 underspend — a procurement cost opportunity for USD/CHF-denominated commodity procurement against PKR-priced goods if the dynamic continues.^[10]
• The 2026 shift from a joint Iran–Pakistan CRRP to an Iran-only plan creates a structural coordination gap in cross-border pipeline planning within the SSAR quadripartite framework. WFP regional management (Asia-Pacific/MENA interface) must assess pipeline planning exposure within 60 days.^[19]

In The News

• Strait of Hormuz closure triggers world's largest oil supply crisis (Dawn, Pakistan): OPEC+ output collapsed from 42.77M to 33.19M barrels/day (–22%); directly driving Pakistan's fuel price shock (+54.5% YoY petrol) and inflating WFP trucking costs across all programme modalities.^[4]
• EU High Representative links Hormuz closure to fertiliser disruption and famine risk (Dawn, Pakistan): Kallas visit to Islamabad (June 2026) explicitly flagged Strait of Hormuz as critical chokepoint threatening fertiliser supply chains — a political-level confirmation of the food security transmission mechanism WFP must track for Pakistan's 2026–2027 agricultural season.^[4]
• KP counter-terrorism operations deepen protection crisis in tribal districts (Dawn, Pakistan): Documented civilian casualties from Pakistani air and drone strikes alongside persistent TTP activity are deepening access constraints in merged districts of KP where WFP and KSrelief maintain humanitarian programming.^[5]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Fuel price shock rendering cost baselines obsolete	Super Petrol +54.5% YoY (PKR 393.4/L), HSD +47.0% YoY (PKR 380.2/L) as of April 2026; all trucking, last-mile, and field mission budgets underestimated. Balochistan and KP most exposed.	1. Immediately revise all operational cost projections for a +48–59% sustained fuel shock. 2. Prioritise Balochistan and KP cost recalibration given inter-provincial supply chain length.	Supply Chain, Programme, Finance	RBO Asia-Pacific, Procurement	Pakistan Market Monitor April 2026 (doc_id: 4213018); WFP Weekly Market Report 21 May 2026 (doc_id: 4213727)	High
Operational	Food basket inflation eroding transfer value	Basic food basket at PKR 15,758/month (21 May 2026), 4% above pre-conflict baseline; wheat flour +6% from baseline. CVA transfer values calibrated to PKR 15,150 are now insufficient for a 2,100 kcal/person/day ration.	1. Review and adjust all CVA transfer values against 21 May basket immediately. 2. Establish weekly wheat flour price as primary trigger for further adjustments.	Programme, VAM, Cash-Based Transfers	RBO, Donor Reporting	WFP Weekly Market Report 21 May 2026 (doc_id: 4213727)	High
Operational	2026 monsoon exposure with incomplete anticipatory action systems	National AA Strategy launched April 2026 — two months before monsoon onset. 2025 floods displaced 2.5M; Sindh and KP at elevated risk in 2026. Arabian Sea marine heatwave projected to intensify cyclone activity.	1. Verify provincial AA protocols are operational before end of June 2026, not reliant on strategy document alone. 2. Pre-position stocks in Sindh and KP; activate PDMA coordination immediately.	Preparedness, Logistics, Programme	NDMA, OCHA, ECHO	WFP CB Jan 2026 (pub: Feb 2026); OCHA Sitrep Sep 2025	High
Strategic	Domestic conflict escalation constraining KP/Balochistan access	May 2026 ACLED: 1,310 events, 752 fatalities — up 26% events and 62% fatalities MoM. Counter-terrorism operations in KP causing civilian casualties; TTP activity persistent in merged districts. AJK border tensions active.	1. Update security risk assessments for KP and Balochistan; ensure MOSS compliance is documented. 2. Formalise security coordination with IFRC/PRCS in AJK-adjacent operations, including medevac contingencies.	Security, Field Operations	UNDSS, IFRC, PRCS	ACLED HDX May 2026; DREF Final Report MDRPK028 (doc_id: 4214224)	High
Strategic	CSP funding gap and US donor concentration risk	CSP 2023–2027 gap ~USD 243M (~31% unfunded). US (PRM + USDA) confirmed as donors; global US aid reduction trajectory in 2025–2026 threatens material funding shortfall. Activity 1 funded at only 15% of needs (2024 ACR).	1. Urgently disaggregate USD 535M allocated contributions by donor to quantify US exposure. 2. Accelerate engagement with EU/ECHO, FCDO, GIZ, Gulf donors; model 25–50% US reduction scenarios.	Resource Mobilisation, Programme Planning	RBO, Donor Relations	WFP CB Jan 2026; WFP ACR 2024; WFP CB Oct 2025	High
Operational	Afghanistan–Pakistan border closure compounding supply shocks	Border closed since 12 October 2025; 8,800 MT of food commodities blocked. Domestic supply-side inflation compounded. Returnee flows (~7,990/day, 10–23 May 2026) creating cross-border pipeline pressure.	1. Assess alternative domestic sourcing routes for disrupted agricultural commodity flows. 2. Establish real-time flow intelligence sharing with WFP Afghanistan to synchronise pre-positioning at Torkham and Spin Boldak.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Programme	WFP Afghanistan CO, IOM	WFP Afghanistan CB May 2026 (doc_id: 4212240); IOM Flow Monitoring 10–23 May 2026 (doc_id: 4214529)	High
Fiduciary	Governance gaps in BISP partnership and non-functional CFM	As of September 2024 (WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09): only 248 CFM calls received across 3 provinces for 1.3M beneficiaries; LNS procurement from single supplier since 2016 using superseded specifications without formalised waiver. BISP represents ~80% of 2024 planned activity portfolio.	1. Confirm all audit corrective actions (several with March 2025 deadlines) are closed; commission independent verification if not confirmed. 2. Deploy face-to-face CFM at BNP centres; verify LNS waiver status immediately.	Accountability, Procurement, Internal Control	OIOS, RBO Oversight	WFP Internal Audit AR/24/09 (pub: Sep 2024)	Medium
Strategic	Regional coordination gap from Iran-only CRRP shift	2026 shift from joint Iran–Pakistan CRRP to Iran-only plan creates structural gap in SSAR quadripartite pipeline planning. Uncoordinated deportation timelines from Islamabad impede returnee demand forecasting.	1. RBO Asia-Pacific/MENA must assess cross-border pipeline planning gaps within 60 days. 2. Establish inter-country data sharing protocol with WFP Iran and WFP Afghanistan on returnee flows.	Regional Coordination, Pipeline Planning	RBO Asia-Pacific, RBMM, UNHCR	UNHCR Iran Factsheet June 2026 (doc_id: 4214614); IOM Flow Monitoring (doc_id: 4214529)	Medium

Note: More than 149 ReliefWeb documents, 9 manual documents, and 43 news articles were reviewed. The intelligence is current as of 8 June 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• WFP VAM HDX data (15 April 2026) records wheat flour nationally at PKR 110/kg, while the WFP Weekly Market Report (21 May 2026, doc_id: 4213727) — the more recent and authoritative source — records PKR 121/kg; the gap reflects the confirmed upward trajectory over the intervening five weeks and is not a methodological contradiction, but users should not treat the April HDX figure as current.

Footnotes

1. Pakistan inflation and fuel price data — WFP, news intelligence compilation, May–June 2026
2. Pakistan Market Monitor Report April 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)
3. WFP Afghanistan Country Brief, May 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4212240)
4. Dawn (Pakistan), multiple articles — June 2026; EU High Representative Kallas remarks on Strait of Hormuz, Islamabad, June 2026
5. ACLED conflict data via HDX — May 2026; Dawn (Pakistan) counter-terrorism reporting, June 2026
6. KP/AJK GLOF and landslide alert — news intelligence, June 2026
7. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis Pakistan — IPC, March 2026 (HDX quantitative feed)
8. WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 21 May 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213727)
9. ACAPS Key Crises to Watch 2025 — ACAPS, June 2025 (manual document)
10. Pakistan Monsoon Floods 2025 DREF Final Report (MDRPK028) — IFRC, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214224)
11. Pakistan water crisis — news intelligence, June 2026
12. Afghanistan Flow Monitoring Update 10–23 May 2026 — IOM, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214529)
13. WFP Pakistan Country Brief January 2026 (pub: February 2026) — WFP, February 2026 (manual document)
14. Pakistan Asset Impact Monitoring from Space (AIMS) Report March 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4211779)
15. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2024 — WFP, 2024 (ACR strategic intelligence input)
16. WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, September 2024 (manual document)
17. WFP Pakistan Country Brief October 2025 (pub: November 2025) — WFP, November 2025 (manual document)
18. UNICEF Afghanistan Humanitarian Situation Report No. 4, 30 April 2026 — UNICEF, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214369)
19. UNHCR Iran Factsheet June 2026 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4214614)