Pakistan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Pakistan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 90.1M (12-month, per WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026; USD 28.8M for the Jun–Nov 2026 window specifically); CSP gap ~USD 239M against USD 787.3M total requirement
Current Reach:	N/A — no current SitRep figure available; previously (per ACR 2025): 3,327,874 total unique beneficiaries in 2025
Population IPC 3+:	10.5M in IPC Phase 3+ (20% of analysed population of 53.4M); 1.4M in Phase 4 Emergency — March 2026 analysis, now 4 months old

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Pakistan's food security environment is under acute compound stress. The removal of the Minimum Support Price for wheat, reduced planting, adverse weather in Barani rain-fed areas of northern Punjab, and limited carryover stocks drove a 9.0% MoM wheat flour price surge in May 2026 to PKR 120/kg nationally (PKR 129/kg in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan), a 58% YoY increase. The basic food basket stood at PKR 15,758/month (USD 57) as of 18 June 2026 — 4% above the 26 February 2026 pre-crisis baseline — following six consecutive weeks of increases from 30 April.^[1]
• The Pakistan–Afghanistan military exchange constitutes a rapidly escalating operational threat. Pakistani airstrikes in Paktia, Paktika, Kunar, and Khost have continued from late June into July 2026, adding to an already severe cumulative toll: UNAMA documented 750+ civilian casualties and UNOCHA recorded approximately 115,000 people (16,400 families) displaced in Q1 2026 alone (by mid-March). Casualties and displacement have continued to accrue through the more recent strikes, but no updated cumulative figure specific to the June–July escalation is available in reviewed sources.^[2],[3] Afghan border closures are simultaneously disrupting inbound agricultural produce, spices, cotton, and coal into Pakistan — confirmed directly by WFP's own June 2026 Market Monitor — compounding domestic food price inflation and threatening WFP Pakistan's supply corridor planning into KP and Balochistan.^[1]
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a systemic supply chain risk. Active US–Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have caused fuel price escalation — Super Petrol +51.1% YoY at PKR 381.87/litre and HSD +49.5% YoY at PKR 380.88/litre — directly inflating WFP Pakistan's trucking, last-mile delivery, and field mission costs, with KP and Balochistan most exposed given long inter-provincial supply chains.^[1],[4]
• The 2026 monsoon season is underway with compounding early signals: NDMA has issued multi-region rain alerts for KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Kashmir for 7–10 July 2026; GLOF warnings are active for Swat and Gilgit-Baltistan; and standing crop and orchard damage has been reported in Lower Chitral, with assessments ongoing.^[5],[6] Pakistan flood contexts historically generate IPC Phase 3–4 conditions in Sindh and Balochistan riverine districts within 4–8 weeks of major inundation, with a heightened risk of acute malnutrition approaching emergency levels (Global Acute Malnutrition above 15%, the WHO 'critical' threshold) in worst-affected talukas.^[7]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The March 2026 IPC analysis (4 months old; situation likely changed) placed 10.5 million people in IPC Phase 3+ (20% of the 53.4 million analysed population), including 1.4 million in Phase 4 Emergency.^[8] This represents a 40% increase in Phase 3+ absolute numbers versus December 2025, though the analysed population also expanded significantly — percentage comparisons are more reliable than absolute counts.
• The casual labour/wheat flour Terms of Trade collapsed 34% YoY to 11.5 kg/day nationally, with Peshawar and Multan at 9 kg/day — signalling severe food access erosion among WFP's core beneficiary population. Poor households spend approximately 50% of income on food.^[1],[9]
• Previously (per ACR 2025): 7.5 million people (21% of population in 45 analysed vulnerable districts) faced IPC Phase 3+ including 1.3 million in Phase 4 Emergency. Stunting affects 40% of children under five nationally (sourced from 2018 NNS — an outdated baseline). Income inequality reached its highest level in 27 years per HIES 2025 data.^[9]
• 531,800 Afghans returned from Pakistan in 2026 as of 27 June 2026, following 1 million in 2025; deportations increased 49% in the 1–15 June 2026 fortnight, with 58,469 returnees identified across five border crossing points in that period alone.^[10]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening. Six consecutive weeks of food basket price increases (30 April – 11 June 2026); wheat flour annual food inflation at 7.9% YoY in May 2026; headline CPI at 10.9% YoY in April 2026 (up from 7.3% in March).^[1] Note: HDX food price data (latest: April 2026) showed wheat flour at PKR 110/kg — below the WFP Monthly Market Monitor's May 2026 figure of PKR 120/kg. The WFP VAM monitoring series, being more recent and granular, is the adopted figure; the HDX series appears to reflect earlier-month national averages.
• ACLED data show June 2026 conflict events at 1,071 (down 18% from May's 1,307) and fatalities at 677 (down 8%), both above the 6-month average (1,044 events, 599 fatalities). Civilian targeting at 123 events and 103 fatalities reflects a persistent and elevated risk to beneficiary populations — not a de-escalation signal.^[11]
• Pakistan's record workers' remittances of USD 4.25 billion in May 2026 (+15.4% YoY; cumulative July–May FY26 at USD 38.11 billion, +9.2% YoY) offer a partial offset to food price inflation for remittance-receiving households — a targeting design opportunity to focus WFP assistance on non-remittance households.^[1]
• Sindh moderate seasonal rainfall deficit (Tharparkar at 56% of normal) noted in dekadal climate data through 21 June 2026; vegetation still near normal, suggesting irrigated buffers are holding — a watch-level signal requiring monitoring as monsoon intensifies.^[8]

WFP Operations:

• No current SitRep reach figure is available. Previously (per ACR 2025): WFP reached 3,327,874 unique beneficiaries in 2025. The Benazir Nashonuma Programme — operationally managed by WFP across 542 facilitation centres in 157 districts — delivered an independently verified 20% reduction in stunting at 6 months of age and reached 2.4 million beneficiaries in 2025 under a USD 193 million government-funded agreement. Nashonuma represented approximately 75% of total 2025 WFP Pakistan expenditures (USD 84.5M of USD 112.9M).^[9]
• Previously (per ACR 2025): SO1 (resilience) reached 46% beneficiary achievement at 48% expenditure rate; SO2 (nutrition/social protection) exceeded plan at 340% beneficiary achievement and 113% expenditure rate, driven by Nashonuma; SO4 (emergency) exceeded plan at 499% beneficiary achievement and 5,642% expenditure rate (baseline plan set at USD 115,695 before the 2025 floods; actual USD 6.5M). Emergency Preparedness (Activity 1) was critically under-resourced — available resources covered only 33% of needs (USD 3.42M of USD 10.3M), and expenditure reached just USD 509K (5% of needs).^[12]
• Previously (per ACR 2025): The 2025 monsoon flood emergency response reached 375,000 individuals — approximately 5.4% of the 6.9 million affected — due to a USD 9.5 million funding gap (USD 10M received vs. USD 19.5M required). The anticipatory action pilot in Khairpur, Sindh reached 881,843 people with early warnings and 16,072 people with anticipatory cash, reducing estimated risk exposure by 40% in targeted districts.^[9]
• Immediate WFP programme integrity alert: WFP's Community Feedback Mechanism recorded 15,802 cases in 2025 (176% increase from 5,724 in 2024), including 55+ cases of specialized nutritious food diversion within the Nashonuma programme. As of September 2024, the October 2024 Internal Audit found the CFM near-non-functional (248 calls across three provinces from 1.3 million beneficiaries), with outdated hotline numbers still displayed — an ongoing accountability risk requiring immediate verification of remediation status.^[13]
• Cash transfer values require immediate review: USD 57/month for a six-person household against a PKR 15,758/month basket cost leaves minimal buffer. The 34% YoY Terms of Trade collapse to 11.5 kg/day nationally demands urgent indexation of transfer values to WFP weekly market monitoring data.^[1]

Funding Outlook:

• As of the WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026 (the most recent available, superseding the January 2026 figure previously cited here): the 12-month net funding requirement stands at USD 90.1 million, with a narrower USD 28.8 million requirement for the June–November 2026 window specifically. Under the 2023–2027 CSP (total: USD 787.3M, of which USD 548.6M received to date), the structural funding gap is approximately USD 239 million (30% unfunded), consistent with the previously-cited approximate USD 243 million/31% estimate. Active donors include the Czech Republic, EU, Germany, Japan, Norway, the Government of Pakistan, Spain, UK, USA, Food from Ukraine, the Green Climate Fund, the LDS Church, the Gates Foundation, and the Japan Association for WFP.^[18]
• Previously (per ACR 2025): Activity 4 (Social Protection/capacity strengthening) was resourced at only 23% of needs (available resources USD 2.99M of USD 12.7M), with expenditure of just USD 1.55M (12% of needs) — a direct contradiction of the CSP's stated transition-to-national-systems strategy. Third post-publication correction (10 July 2026): footnote ordering corrected — the June 2026 Country Brief citation, previously appended out of sequence, is renumbered to 18 so every in-text citation resolves to its intended source; footnote 12 (ACR) reference tidied. No factual content changed. SO3 (food systems/chakki fortification) reached only 11% expenditure rate (USD 164,908 vs. USD 1.56M plan), critically underfunding an activity with proven infrastructure across 165 mills reaching an estimated 800,000 people.^[9],[12]
• No WFP-specific funding data for the Afghan returnee response pipeline exists; WFP Afghanistan's CSP has historically faced chronic underfunding relative to need. A joint WFP Pakistan–WFP Afghanistan pipeline and beneficiary management protocol for the returnee handoff is absent and urgently required.^[10]
• US donor exposure (PRM + USDA confirmed contributors) warrants active monitoring given documented 2025 global US foreign assistance reductions. The USD 40 million McGovern-Dole (USDA) school meals commitment for Sindh secured in 2025 represents a positive multi-year anchor, but dependency on US funding creates concentration risk.^[9]

In The News

• Pakistan PM and military chief attend Khamenei funeral amid regional war dynamics (Dawn, Pakistan): Pakistan's attendance at the funeral of assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei — killed in US-Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026 — signals alignment with Iran while Strait of Hormuz blockade dynamics continue to drive fuel price escalation directly affecting WFP Pakistan operational costs.^[15]
• Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan kill at least 36 civilians (Al Jazeera, 29 June 2026): Confirmed civilian casualties in Paktia, Paktika, and Kunar from Pakistani airstrikes represent a direct and escalating threat to WFP humanitarian access corridors on both sides of the border, compounding supply chain disruptions from existing border closures.^[16]
• GLOF and landslide alerts for KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and AJK effective 27 June–3 July 2026 (Dawn, Pakistan, 27 June 2026): Concurrent multi-hazard alerts driven by accelerated glacial melt signal active early-stage monsoon flood risk in districts central to WFP KP operations, with potential for supply chain access disruption ahead of peak monsoon season.^[17]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Cash Transfer Value Inadequacy	Basic food basket at PKR 15,758/month (USD 57) for a six-person household; Terms of Trade collapsed 34% YoY to 11.5 kg/day nationally (9 kg/day in Peshawar and Multan); six consecutive weeks of basket price increases.	1. Immediately review all transfer values against PKR 3,940/week basket benchmark. 2. Establish dynamic adjustment mechanism indexed to weekly WFP VAM market data. 3. Prioritise KP and Balochistan where wheat flour peaks at PKR 129/kg.	Programme, VAM, Cash-Based Transfers	Regional Bureau Islamabad, HQ Programme	WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554); WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 18 June 2026 (doc_id: 4218775)	High
Operational	Pakistan–Afghanistan Border Conflict and Supply Chain Disruption	Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghan provinces (750+ casualties and ~115,000 displaced per Q1 2026 UNAMA/UNOCHA figures, with the conflict continuing since) combined with border closures are disrupting agricultural supply inflows to Pakistan and threatening WFP's KP/Balochistan supply corridors.	1. Coordinate with WFP Afghanistan CO on border status monitoring and contingency routing. 2. Develop alternative supply routing options for extended closure scenarios. 3. Integrate border conflict status indicators into Pakistan market monitoring products.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Programme	WFP Afghanistan CO, Regional Bureau Islamabad	The Diplomat (ref://10); Al Jazeera 29 June 2026 (ref://12); WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554)	High
Financial	Operational Cost Escalation from Fuel Price Surge	Super Petrol +51.1% YoY at PKR 381.87/litre; HSD +49.5% YoY at PKR 380.88/litre; 51.1% YoY fuel cost increase overall, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruption and Middle East conflict.	1. Urgently revise all operational cost projections for trucking, last-mile delivery, and field missions. 2. Prioritise revision for KP and Balochistan. 3. Explore fuel hedging or pre-positioning strategies.	Logistics, Finance, Supply Chain	Regional Bureau Islamabad, HQ Supply Chain	WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554); Pakistan Market Monitor April 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)	High
Strategic	Cross-Border Coordination Gap for Afghan Returnee Caseload	531,800 Afghans returned from Pakistan in 2026 YTD (as of 27 June 2026); deportations up 49% in 1–15 June 2026 fortnight. No joint WFP Pakistan–WFP Afghanistan pipeline or beneficiary management protocol exists for the returnee handoff.	1. Establish joint WFP Afghanistan–WFP Pakistan pipeline and beneficiary management protocol. 2. Coordinate with IOM on flow monitoring and UNHCR on protection/registration at border crossing points. 3. Track outflows from Pakistan alongside reception monitoring on the Afghanistan side.	Programme, Partnerships, Logistics	WFP Afghanistan CO, UNHCR, IOM, Regional Bureau Islamabad	Pakistan–Afghanistan Returns Emergency Response #53 as of 27 June 2026 (doc_id: 4219197); IOM Bi-Weekly Report 1–15 June 2026 (doc_id: 4219253)	High
Operational	Monsoon Flood Emergency Underfunding and Pre-positioning Gap	Previously (per ACR 2025): 2025 flood response reached only 5.4% of 6.9 million affected due to USD 9.5M funding gap. 2026 monsoon underway with GLOF alerts active in KP/Gilgit-Baltistan and standing crop damage in Lower Chitral. Emergency Preparedness (Activity 1) funded at only 33% of needs.	1. Secure minimum USD 10M pre-positioned emergency fund or standby donor agreement before monsoon peak. 2. Expand anticipatory action pilot from Khairpur to at least two additional high-risk districts in Punjab and Balochistan. 3. Accelerate agricultural damage assessments in Lower Chitral.	Programme, Emergency, Logistics	RBO, ECHO, FCDO, NDMA, WFP Anticipatory Action Unit	ACR 2025 (WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025); PAK Monsoon Floods Situation Update 1 July 2026 (doc_id: 4218910)	High
Fiduciary	Programme Integrity — Nashonuma SNF Diversion and CFM Adequacy	Previously (per ACR 2025): 55+ cases of specialized nutritious food diversion within Nashonuma; CFM cases spiked 176% to 15,802 in 2025. As of September 2024 (Internal Audit), CFM was near-non-functional: 248 calls from 1.3 million beneficiaries across three provinces, with outdated hotline numbers still displayed.	1. Verify current CFM remediation status against October 2024 Internal Audit agreed actions. 2. Deploy face-to-face feedback mechanisms at all 542 Nashonuma facilitation centres. 3. Commission targeted third-party spot checks on SNF supply chain.	Accountability, Programme Integrity, Risk	RASN, Internal Audit, Regional Bureau Islamabad	WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 (October 2024); ACR 2025 (WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025)	High
Strategic	Nashonuma Transition Risk — Government Fiscal and Political Dependency	Nashonuma represents ~75% of 2025 WFP Pakistan expenditures (USD 84.5M) under a government-funded agreement; no formal transition roadmap with defined milestones, financing triggers, or contingency scenarios exists. CSP 2023–2027 budget for BNP reduced for 2026–2027, citing government resource access constraints — a potential early signal of fiscal strain.	1. Initiate formal transition planning with BISP within 6 months, establishing co-developed milestones and contingency scenarios. 2. Assess current NSR targeting accuracy against HIES 2025 poverty data to detect newly vulnerable households. 3. Commission new National Nutrition Survey to replace 2018 NNS baseline.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation, Partnerships	BISP, Ministry of Poverty Alleviation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO	ACR 2025 (WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025); WFP Pakistan CSP 2023–2027 Revision 1 (December 2023)	High
Financial	Structural CSP Funding Gap and US Donor Concentration Risk	CSP gap approximately USD 239M (30% unfunded) per the WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026 (USD 548.6M received against USD 787.3M total requirement; 12-month NFR of USD 90.1M). US (PRM + USDA) confirmed donors; global US foreign assistance reductions documented in 2025. Activity 4 (Social Protection) at 23% funding; SO3 (food systems) at 11% expenditure rate.	1. Develop contingency scenario modelling for 25–50% US contribution reduction. 2. Accelerate diversification to ECHO, FCDO, Germany, Norway, and Gulf donors. 3. Develop dedicated multi-year proposals for Activity 1 and Activity 4, anchored on AA pilot results and Nashonuma AKU evaluation.	Resource Mobilisation, Finance, Programme	Regional Bureau Islamabad, HQ Partnerships, CERF	WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008); ACR 2025 (WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025)	High

Note: More than 150 ReliefWeb documents, 14 manual documents, and 60 news articles were reviewed. Intelligence is current as of 6 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

Post-publication correction (10 July 2026): this version corrects three items identified in review — (1) funding figures now reflect the WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026, superseding a January 2026 figure previously cited; (2) the Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict casualty/displacement figures are clarified as Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) UNAMA/UNOCHA cumulative totals, not specific to the June–July strikes as originally implied; (3) the citation on the Afghan border-closure/agricultural-trade finding is corrected to its actual source, the WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554).

Second post-publication correction (10 July 2026): a further independent review identified four additional items, now corrected against source — (1) fuel-price figures corrected to the WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor, June 2026 (Super Petrol PKR 381.87/litre, +51.1% YoY; HSD PKR 380.88/litre, +49.5% YoY); the figures previously shown were the April 2026 Monitor's; (2) the conflict-trend baseline is corrected from a '12-month average' to the '6-month average' — Pakistan has six months of ACLED data (Jan–Jun 2026), and the underlying values (1,044 events, 599 fatalities) were already the correct 6-month averages; (3) the ACR Activity 1 and Activity 4 funding lines now distinguish available-resources ratios from expenditure figures (Activity 1: available resources 33% of needs, expenditure USD 509K/5% of needs; Activity 4: available resources 23% of needs, expenditure USD 1.55M/12% of needs); (4) the flood-context malnutrition statement no longer asserts a measured GAM figure from a document whose text was unavailable, and reframes the 15% level as the WHO 'critical' Global Acute Malnutrition threshold.

• Wheat flour price series discrepancy: HDX/WFP VAM food price feed (latest: April 2026) shows wheat flour at PKR 110/kg (MoM: -4%); the WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554) records wheat flour at PKR 120/kg nationally in May 2026 (+9.0% MoM, +58% YoY). The market monitor figure is adopted as the more recent and granular source; the HDX series reflects earlier-month national averages and the two periods are not directly comparable.

Footnotes

1. WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554); WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 18 June 2026 — WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4218775); WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 11 June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217669)
2. The Diplomat — Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border strikes, July 2026 (ref://10)
3. Al Jazeera — Pakistani airstrikes Afghanistan, 29 June 2026 (ref://12)
4. SCMP Asia — Strait of Hormuz blockade, July 2026 (ref://4)
5. NDMA Pakistan rain alerts — Dawn (Pakistan), 5 July 2026 (ref://45)
6. PAK: Pluvial/Flash Flood 06-2026 Pakistan Monsoon Floods Situation Update — IFRC/PRCS, 1 July 2026 (doc_id: 4218910)
7. Pakistan Flood Support Plan 2025 Response Summary as of 8 June 2026 — OCHA, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215331)
8. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis Pakistan, March 2026 — IPC, March 2026
9. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, January 2026 (pub: 2025-01-01, reviewed 2026-06-25)
10. Pakistan–Afghanistan Returns Emergency Response #53 as of 27 June 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219197); IOM Pakistan Flow Monitoring of Afghan Returnees Bi-Weekly Report 1–15 June 2026 — IOM, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219253)
11. ACLED conflict data Pakistan, June 2026 — ACLED via HDX, June 2026
12. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025 — ACR Strategic Outcomes, WFP, 2025 (ACR source: WFP-0000172906)
13. WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, September 2024 (pub: 2024-09-02)
14. WFP Pakistan Country Brief January 2026 — WFP, February 2026 (pub: 2026-02-20)
15. Dawn Pakistan — Khamenei funeral, Pakistani PM and military chief attendance, 4 July 2026 (ref://1)
16. Al Jazeera — Pakistani airstrikes eastern Afghanistan, 29 June 2026 (ref://12)
17. Dawn Pakistan — GLOF and landslide alerts KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK, 27 June 2026 (ref://23)
18. WFP Pakistan Country Brief, June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)