Pakistan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Pakistan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 28.8M (June–November 2026 window); USD 90.1M (12-month)
Current Reach:	362,000 women and children monthly (Nashonuma, June 2026); 23,000 IDPs in KP (emergency cash)
Population IPC 3+:	7.5M in IPC Phase 3+ (21% of analysed pop.); 1.25M in Phase 4; FEWS NET projects 17–18M in need by Dec 2026–Jan 2027

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Pakistan is experiencing a compound multi-shock crisis as of July 2026: IPC Phase 3+ acute food insecurity across Balochistan, conflict-affected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kurram and Khyber districts), and Tharparkar (Sindh), overlaid by severe food price inflation, a likely poor kharif harvest, imminent catastrophic flooding, and a near-total humanitarian response gap through January 2027.^[1]
• The 2026 monsoon is forecast to be 25% more severe than 2025 (which affected 6.9 million people, destroyed 2.2 million hectares of cropland, and killed over 1,000 people). Standing crop and orchard damage is already confirmed in Lower Chitral; NDMA has issued a nationwide pre-disaster alert.^[2,3] Flood Hub shows all 34 gauges within normal range as of 1 July, but pre-monsoon seasonal rainfall is already below 75% of normal across 8 of 30 districts in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan — a concurrent agricultural stress signal.
• Six Afghanistan border crossings remain closed (Torkham, Chaman, Zhob, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Chagai), disrupting agricultural produce, spice, and coal inflows and compounding food price inflation in Pakistan's border districts. A confirmed Pakistan-cleared UN humanitarian convoy was blocked on the Afghan side as of 11 July 2026 — a dual-gatekeeper access blockage.^[4] Pakistan faces ~USD 1 billion in debt repayments over the next year, constraining fiscal space for government co-response.^[5]
• Strait of Hormuz disruption (US-Iran military exchanges) has driven Super Petrol +54.5% YoY (PKR 393.4/L) and HSD +47.0% YoY (PKR 380.2/L), raising WFP humanitarian delivery costs to an estimated 2.5–5× the pre-disruption USD 90/MT Pakistan benchmark, with transit times potentially reaching 75 days via Bandar Abbas/Jebel Ali.^[6] A force majeure declaration has been triggered on Pakistan's primary LNG supply corridor, threatening a 20-day power disruption during peak summer demand.^[7]
• A Pakistan/Peshawar deportation operation targeting up to 20,000 Afghans represents a near-term surge to Torkham, compounding WFP Afghanistan's absorption challenge in already IPC-stressed eastern provinces.^[8] WFP is not listed as a named service provider in the IOM Afghanistan Emergency Border Response coordination framework — a coordination gap and pipeline visibility risk.^[4]

Vulnerability Scale:

• 7.5 million people (21% of analysed population) are in IPC Phase 3+, including 1.25 million in Phase 4 (Emergency). FEWS NET (July 2026) projects this escalating to 17–18 million by December 2026–January 2027 — a more than doubling of the caseload — driven by a likely poor kharif harvest and sustained food price inflation.^[1]
• Wheat flour surged 9.0% MoM in May 2026 to PKR 120/kg nationally (58% YoY for regular grade; PKR 129/kg in KP and Balochistan), driven by removal of the Minimum Support Price, reduced planting, and adverse weather in Barani rain-fed areas of northern Punjab.^[9] Dawn reporting (12 July 2026) alleges flour costs have reached PKR 130–150/kg in some markets and flags an alleged 3.5 million tonne wheat shortage with 4.5 million tonnes reportedly missing from Punjab government warehouses — not corroborated by WFP VAM sources; WFP VAM (April 2026) records wheat flour at PKR 110/kg nationally (most recent HDX data point).^[10]
• Casual labour/wheat flour terms of trade collapsed 34% YoY to 11.5 kg/day nationally (9 kg/day in Peshawar and Multan). The basic food basket stands at PKR 15,813/month (USD 57 for a 6-person household) — 4.4% above the 26 February pre-conflict baseline.^[9] Poor households spend approximately 50% of income on food.^[11]
• 2.7 million children across 45 rural districts face acute malnutrition; 706,000 have SAM. Stunting remains at 40% of children under five (NNS 2018 baseline — now 8 years old).^[12]

Trend Indicators:

• Trajectory: worsening on all fronts. Headline CPI surged from 7.3% (March 2026) to 10.9% YoY (April 2026). The food basket rose from PKR 3,576/week on 30 April to PKR 3,953/week by 11 June 2026.^[9]
• IPC Phase 3+ population increased 40% between December 2025 (7.54M) and March 2026 (10.55M), though the analysed population also expanded significantly (35.6M → 53.4M); percentage comparison is more reliable — 20% of the broader analysed population now in Phase 3+.^[13]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 achieved 46% beneficiary achievement rate at 48% expenditure rate (underfunding of resilience/emergency preparedness); SO2 exceeded plan at 340% beneficiary achievement rate at 113% expenditure rate, primarily driven by government-funded Nashonuma; SO4 exceeded plan at 499% beneficiary achievement rate at 5,642% expenditure rate (flood response against a USD 115,695 planned baseline; actual USD 6.5M expended). CSP was approximately 70% funded at ACR close.^[11]
• El Niño is forecast to peak October–December 2026 (US Climate Prediction Centre: 81% probability of "very strong" event ≥2.0°C anomaly) — compounding monsoon flood risk and threatening the rabi planting season.^[14]
• An unverified Dawn report (12 July 2026) alleges a confirmed wheat supply gap of over 3.5 million tonnes with provincial reserves critically depleted in KP — not corroborated by WFP VAM; treated as watch-level signal pending official verification.^[10]

WFP Operations:

• Nashonuma (nutrition): 362,000 women and children served monthly across 558 facilitation centres in 45 rural districts against a 706,000 SAM caseload. A WFP-secured programme extension to 8 million beneficiaries (from 4.7 million) has been confirmed, backed by government funding.^[12,15] As of October 2024 (Internal Audit AR/24/09), a single local LNS supplier has been used since 2016 under superseded pre-July 2023 specifications without a formalised waiver — a food safety and compliance risk that should be confirmed as resolved.^[16]
• Emergency/displacement: 23,000 displaced persons in KP's newly merged districts receiving emergency cash assistance. WFP is assisting approximately 20,000 IDPs in Kurram and Khyber districts (FEWS NET figure; relationship to the 23,000 is unresolved in available sources).^[1,12]
• Anticipatory Action: Community-level Anticipatory Action Protocols completed for Shangla and Buner under the Green Climate Fund/KP project. National Anticipatory Action Strategy 2026–2030 (developed with NDMA, PDMAs, SDPI) should now be launched — the narrow pre-monsoon window is effectively closed; operationalising existing protocols is the immediate priority.^[2]
• Adolescent Girls Stipend Programme: 5,600 families enrolled. Transfer value erosion from inflation (CPI 10.9% YoY) requires immediate top-up review.^[12]
• All trucking, last-mile delivery, and field mission cost projections require urgent recosting against fuel shock — Balochistan and KP are most exposed given long inter-provincial supply chains.^[6]

Funding Outlook:

• CRITICAL GAP: FEWS NET (July 2026) explicitly states no humanitarian food assistance is planned for June 2026–January 2027 beyond the Kurram/Khyber IDP operation, against projected peak needs of 17–18 million people in December 2026–January 2027.^[1]
• CSP (2023–2027) total requirement: USD 787.3M; received: USD 548.59M. June–November 2026 NFR: USD 28.8M; 12-month NFR: USD 90.1M.^[12] Any pipeline break in the June–November window directly interrupts SNF supply to 362,000 monthly Nashonuma beneficiaries.
• Under the 2023–2027 CSP, Emergency Preparedness (SO1/Activity 1) received only 33% of its needs-based requirement (USD 508K vs USD 10.3M needed per 2025 ACR) — threatening sustainability of the proven anticipatory action model. Social Protection (Activity 4) received only 23% (USD 1.55M vs USD 12.7M needed).^[11]
• UNHCR Pakistan operation: USD 94M required / 30% funded as of end-June 2026 — a corroborating indicator of systemic humanitarian funding compression in Pakistan.^[17] Global donor funding has declined sharply since 2024 (ACAPS, July 2026).^[5]
• Previously (2025 ACR): The 2025 flood emergency response received USD 10M against a USD 19.5M requirement — a 49% funding gap; response was initiated on internal resource transfers. The 2026 monsoon is forecast 25% worse with no pre-positioned emergency fund confirmed.

In The News

• Pakistan wheat shortage and flour price surge (Dawn, 12 July 2026): Alleged 3.5M tonne wheat shortage and flour costs reaching PKR 130–150/kg, combined with petrol price rises, directly erode WFP cash transfer purchasing power and threaten Nashonuma supply chains; not yet corroborated by WFP VAM.^[10]
• Peshawar Afghan deportation operation (news, 12 July 2026): Up to 20,000 Afghans facing imminent deportation through Torkham creates an acute near-term surge at a crossing already closed to humanitarian convoys, compounding WFP's cross-border coordination gap and border-district food security.^[8]
• Strait of Hormuz re-closure and LNG force majeure (news, 10 July 2026): Force majeure declared on Pakistan's primary LNG supply corridor following renewed US-Iran strikes, threatening a 20-day power disruption at peak summer demand and further inflating already-elevated WFP operational fuel costs.^[7]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Strategic	Near-total humanitarian food assistance gap vs. 17–18M projected peak need	FEWS NET (July 2026) explicitly states no humanitarian food assistance planned for June 2026–January 2027 beyond Kurram/Khyber IDP operation; peak need of 17–18M people by December 2026–January 2027 will go entirely unaddressed absent emergency resource mobilisation.	1. Urgently escalate donor engagement on USD 28.8M June–November NFR, framing against FEWS NET's documented response vacuum. 2. Develop December 2026–January 2027 peak contingency operational plan immediately.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation, Government Relations	RBx, HQ Donor Relations	FEWS NET Pakistan Food Security Outlook July 2026 (doc_id: 4220626); WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)	High
Operational	2026 monsoon 25% more severe than 2025 — operational continuity at risk in Balochistan and KP	Government forecast of floods 25% worse than 2025 (which affected 6.9M people, destroyed 2.2M ha cropland). Damage already confirmed in Lower Chitral; NDMA nationwide alert issued. Emergency Preparedness funded at only 33% of need (2025 ACR). 2025 response was 49% underfunded and launched on internal transfers.	1. Operationalise Shangla and Buner Anticipatory Action Protocols immediately — pre-monsoon window has closed. 2. Secure a minimum pre-positioned emergency reserve or standby donor agreement before August 2026.	Logistics, Programme, Emergency Response	NDMA, PDMAs, GCF	WFP Pakistan Country Brief April 2026 (doc_id: 4208372); IFRC Monsoon Floods Situation Update July 2026 (doc_id: 4218910); 2025 ACR	High
Financial	Cash transfer value erosion from 34% YoY collapse in labour/wheat flour terms of trade and fuel-driven inflation	Terms of trade at 11.5 kg/day nationally (9 kg/day in Peshawar and Multan). Basic food basket at PKR 15,813/month (USD 57). CPI 10.9% YoY (April 2026). Fuel +47–55% YoY. All operational cost projections for trucking and last-mile delivery are materially understated at pre-shock rates.	1. Immediately review and top-up transfer values for 23,000 KP IDPs and 5,600 Adolescent Girls Stipend families. 2. Rebase all trucking/field mission budgets against current fuel prices.	VAM, Supply Chain, Finance	WFP RBx	WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554); Pakistan Market Monitor April 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)	High
Fiduciary	Nashonuma pipeline break risk against USD 28.8M June–November 2026 NFR	Any shortfall in the June–November NFR directly interrupts SNF supply to 362,000 monthly beneficiaries across 558 facilitation centres in 45 rural districts. 55+ SNF diversion cases flagged in CFM (2025 ACR). Single LNS supplier since 2016 (Internal Audit Oct 2024 — confirm waiver status resolved).	1. Ring-fence Nashonuma supply chain monitoring across all 558 centres. 2. Confirm LNS specification waiver formalisation. 3. Initiate alternative supplier market assessment.	Nutrition, Supply Chain, Finance, Compliance	BISP, RBx	WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008); Internal Audit AR/24/09 October 2024	High
Strategic	Afghanistan border closure constraining coordination and compounding border-district food security	Six crossings closed (Torkham, Chaman, Zhob, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Chagai). WFP not named in IOM Emergency Border Response services table. Peshawar deportation operation of up to 20,000 Afghans imminent. Dual-gatekeeper blockage confirmed on UN convoy.	1. Seek formal inclusion in IOM Afghanistan Emergency Border Response framework before next deportation surge. 2. Formalise food/nutrition referral pipelines at Torkham, Spin Boldak, Azakhel, and Baleli with UNHCR and IOM.	Government Relations, Programme, Logistics	WFP Afghanistan CO, UNHCR, IOM	FEWS NET Pakistan July 2026 (doc_id: 4220626); IOM Afghanistan Emergency Border Response 4 July 2026 (doc_id: 4220827)	High
Strategic	Iran-linked regional escalation creating secondary displacement and access risk for Balochistan and KP	Iran-linked escalation flagged in WFP Country Briefs (May–June 2026) with no joint contingency figures or inter-agency planning milestones in place. Strait of Hormuz closure drives fuel inflation and supply chain disruption. Balochistan and KP host the majority of WFP's nutrition and emergency caseload.	1. Establish joint contingency figures and inter-agency planning milestones with UNHCR and IOM for potential western-border influx. 2. Immediately rebase supply chain cost assumptions against 2.5–5× pre-disruption delivery cost benchmark.	Programme, Logistics, Government Relations	UNHCR, IOM, RBx	WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008); ACAPS Global Middle East Impact Report July 2026 (doc_id: 4220874)	High
Operational	Conflict volatility in KP — ACLED data diverges sharply from 7-month average	July 2026 ACLED: 219 events, 83 fatalities — 81% below June 2026 (1,136 events, 681 fatalities) and well below the 7-month average of 936 events/526 fatalities. Civilian targeting remains active (24 events, 23 fatalities). Sharp one-month reduction may reflect reporting lag or a genuine pause before post-monsoon escalation; WFP KP operations in Kurram and Khyber remain in high-risk environment.	1. Cross-reference ACLED drop with UNDSS Pakistan security reporting before reducing security posture. 2. Maintain existing access protocols for merged districts pending confirmation of trend.	Security, Operations	UNDSS, RBx Security	ACLED HDX July 2026; WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)	Medium

Note: More than 144 documents were reviewed covering the period April 2026 to July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 13 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Wheat flour price — Dawn vs. WFP VAM: Dawn (12 July 2026) alleges flour costs of PKR 130–150/kg in some markets and an alleged 3.5M tonne wheat shortage with 4.5M tonnes missing from Punjab warehouses; WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor (June 2026, doc_id: 4218554) records a national average of PKR 120/kg (PKR 129/kg peak in KP and Balochistan), and WFP VAM HDX data (April 2026) records PKR 110/kg — the Dawn figures are adopted as an unverified watch-level signal, not an operational fact; WFP VAM remains the authoritative source pending updated monitoring data. Additionally, FEWS NET (doc_id: 4220626) cites approximately 20,000 IDPs in Kurram and Khyber districts receiving WFP assistance while WFP Country Briefs (docs 4208372, 4212681, 4216008) consistently cite 23,000 displaced in KP's newly merged districts — the relationship between these figures (subset or distinct populations) is unresolved in available sources.

Footnotes

1. FEWS NET Pakistan Food Security Outlook June 2026–January 2027 — FEWS NET, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220626)
2. WFP Pakistan Country Brief April 2026 — WFP, April 2026 (doc_id: 4208372)
3. PAK: Pluvial/Flash Flood Monsoon Floods Situation Update — IFRC/Pakistan Red Crescent, July 2026 (doc_id: 4218910)
4. Afghanistan: Emergency Border Response Report 21 June–4 July 2026 — IOM, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220827)
5. Global Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East — ACAPS Thematic Report, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220874)
6. Food Security Under Pressure: Impacts of the Middle East Crisis and Pakistan Conflict on Afghanistan — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218118)
7. Pakistan LNG Force Majeure / Strait of Hormuz Disruption — news, 10 July 2026 (ref://57)
8. Pakistan Peshawar Deportation Operation — news, 12 July 2026 (ref://32)
9. WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554); WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 11 June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217669)
10. Dawn Pakistan — wheat shortage and flour prices, 12 July 2026 (ref://22); Pakistan Market Monitor Report April 2026 — WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)
11. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, January 2026 (pub: 2025-01-01)
12. WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)
13. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis Pakistan March 2026 — IPC, March 2026 (HDX quantitative feed)
14. US Climate Prediction Centre El Niño Forecast — Dawn, 9 July 2026 (ref://14)
15. WFP Nashonuma Programme Extension to 8M Beneficiaries — news, 9 July 2026 (ref://49)
16. WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, October 2024 (pub: 2024-09-02)
17. UNHCR Middle East Situation Emergency Update #21 — UNHCR, 7 July 2026 (doc_id: 4220555)