Pakistan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Pakistan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 28.8M (Jun–Nov 2026); 12-month NFR USD 90.10M
Current Reach:	N/A — no monthly people-assisted headline confirmed in Jun 2026 Country Brief
Population IPC 3+:	9.2M projected (Apr–Sep 2026 window, proj.)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Pakistan faces compounding food access deterioration driven by sequential price shocks, a forecast-severe monsoon season, and accelerating Afghan returnee pressure. The basic food basket cost PKR 16,474/month (USD 59) as of 9 July 2026 — 9% above the 26 February pre-crisis baseline of PKR 15,150 (USD 54).^[1] The casual labour/wheat flour Terms of Trade collapsed 34% year-on-year to 11.5 kg/day nationally, with Peshawar and Multan at 9 kg/day — a direct erosion of purchasing power for WFP's target population.^[2]
• The Strait of Hormuz conflict (active US-Iran hostilities since mid-July 2026) is driving fuel price escalation that is already embedded in Pakistan's cost environment: Super Petrol reached PKR 393.4/litre (+54.5% YoY) and HSD PKR 380.2/litre (+47.0% YoY) as of April 2026, with Balochistan and KP most exposed.^[3] Continued conflict threatens further wheat import corridor disruption — Pakistan sources wheat from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria — atop a 13% wheat flour price rise since February 2026.^[1]
• Pakistan's border with Afghanistan has been closed since October 2025. A partial reopening signal emerged on 13 July 2026 when Pakistan issued gate passes for 26 WFP food containers to cross at Torkham — the first confirmed humanitarian cargo movement through this corridor in months.^[4] Separately, ACLED data for July 2026 shows conflict events at 195 and fatalities at 60 — sharply below the 13-month average of 826 events and 456 fatalities — though this partial-month figure may understate the full July picture. News intelligence corroborates a 30% increase in attacks and 26% rise in fatalities in Balochistan and KP in 2025, with ongoing security implications for last-mile delivery.^[5]
• NDMA issued a multi-hazard extreme weather alert (19–23 July 2026) covering KP, AJK, and Punjab, with compounding urban flooding, riverine flooding, and landslide risks.^[6] The government warns 2026 monsoon floods may be 25% more severe than 2025, which affected 6.9 million people — and WFP's 2025 emergency response covered only ~5.4% of the affected population due to a USD 9.5M funding gap.^[7]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The operative food security estimate is the IPC projection for April–September 2026: 9.2 million people projected in Phase 3+ (17% of the analysed population of 53.4 million), with 570,369 in Phase 4 (Emergency).^[8] This is the current lean-season operative caseload. The most recent observed period (March 2026) recorded 10.6 million in Phase 3+ across the larger analysed population — a 40% increase over December 2025 — but the projection is the authoritative in-effect estimate for the present window.
• 2.7 million children across 45 rural districts face acute malnutrition; 706,000 have SAM. The Nashonuma Programme serves 362,000 women and children monthly through 558 facilitation centres.^[9] Previously (2025 ACR): Pakistan's stunting rate stands at 40% of children under five, with income inequality at a 27-year high per HIES 2025, and poor households spending ~50% of income on food.^[7]
• Afghan returnee pressure is intensifying: 2,031 Afghan nationals were arrested/detained during 5–11 July 2026 (23% week-on-week increase); Balochistan accounts for 63% of all 2026 arrests. PoR holders represented 33% of weekly returns despite comprising 2% of arrests, with 65% citing fear of arrest as their primary driver.^[10] These returnees are flowing into KP and Balochistan — provinces already carrying WFP's heaviest nutrition and emergency caseload.

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening. Wheat flour prices rose 9.0% month-on-month in May 2026 to PKR 120/kg nationally (+58% YoY regular; +40% YoY fine), driven by removal of the Minimum Support Price, reduced planting, adverse weather in Barani rain-fed areas, and limited carryover stocks. Provincial peaks: PKR 129/kg in KP and Balochistan.^[2] Headline CPI reached 10.9% YoY in April 2026, up from 7.3% in March — a 49% month-on-month spike.^[3]
• Three-month rainfall deficits below 75% of normal in 5 of 30 districts (worst: Malir Karachi at 48% of normal); 8 of 34 river gauges are at above-normal levels on the Indus and tributaries. Vegetation remains near-normal in deficit districts (NDVI lags 2–4 weeks), but conditions are watch-level ahead of the peak monsoon season.^[8]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (Resilience) reached 46% beneficiary achievement at 48% expenditure rate; SO2 (Nutrition/Social Protection) reached 340% beneficiary achievement at 113% expenditure rate, driven by the government-funded Nashonuma Programme (~75% of 2025 expenditure); SO4 (Emergency) reached 498% beneficiary achievement at 5,642% expenditure rate against a pre-flood baseline plan of USD 115,695 — the extreme ratio reflects an unplanned flood response costing USD 6.5M. Emergency Preparedness (SO1 Activity 1) was funded at only 33% of a USD 10.3M need; Social Protection (Activity 4) at 23% of USD 12.7M need.^[7]

WFP Operations:

• Nashonuma Programme: 558 facilitation centres across 157 districts serving 362,000 women and children monthly with specialised nutritious food. The AKU endline evaluation documents stunting 22% lower at 6 months, 18% lower at 1 year, premature births down 11%, and low birth weight down 6% — among the strongest results globally for a large-scale nutrition programme and the primary donor mobilisation asset.^[9]
• KP Emergency Cash: 23,000 displaced persons in KP's newly merged districts receive emergency cash assistance for immediate food and basic needs — a caseload whose purchasing power is directly eroded by the 9% basket cost increase since February 2026.^[9]
• Punjab Flood Response: Previously (April 2026 Country Brief, covering March 2026 operations): 400,000+ people reached with USD 4.4M cash and 2,863 mt food in the active Punjab flood response.^[11]
• Cash Transfer Value Adequacy (CRITICAL): The Inter-Agency Cash Working Group (led by WFP) endorsed MEB values of PKR 66,000 urban / PKR 65,000 rural for June 2026–May 2027, with MPCT benchmarks of PKR 24,000 (urban) / PKR 23,000 (rural). All active CBT transfer values must be stress-tested against these benchmarks immediately — existing budgets are under-resourced in real terms and budget amendments or donor top-up requests are operationally warranted.^[12]
• Anticipatory Action: National Anticipatory Action Strategy 2026–2030 first draft developed with NDMA, PDMAs, and SDPI; community-level AA protocols completed for Shangla and Buner. WFP must finalise and activate provincial protocols before peak monsoon onset given the 2026 severity forecast.^[11]
• As of October 2024, the WFP Internal Audit (AR/24/09) identified that the CFM recorded only 248 calls across three provinces in 2023 from a programme serving 1.3 million beneficiaries, and flagged 55+ cases of SNF diversion in the Nashonuma pipeline. Subsequently (per 2025 ACR), CFM cases surged to 15,802 in 2025 — a 176% increase — indicating improved outreach but requiring continued diversion follow-up.^[13]

Funding Outlook:

• CSP (2023–2027) total requirement: USD 787.30M; received to date: USD 548.59M. Immediate NFR: USD 28.8M (June–November 2026). 12-month NFR: USD 90.10M.^[9] Any pipeline break in the June–November window directly interrupts specialised nutritious food supply to 362,000 beneficiaries at 558 Nashonuma centres.
• Under the 2023–2027 CSP, the cumulative funding gap stands at approximately 4% (per ACR); however, the annual funding distribution is severely uneven — Emergency Preparedness and Social Protection activities remain critically underfunded at 33% and 23% of annual needs respectively.^[7] Pre-positioning a minimum USD 10M emergency reserve ahead of peak monsoon is operationally justified given the 2025 precedent of launching response on internal transfers.
• The UK FCDO published a commercial pipeline showing a £372.9M reduction in development contract spending^[14] — a negative signal for a donor present in WFP Pakistan's portfolio. USAID/PRM remain active donors; US foreign policy trajectory warrants continued monitoring for concentration risk.
• Strategic opportunity: The Nashonuma AKU endline results, the newly endorsed MEB/MPCT framework, and the McGovern-Dole USD 40M school meals commitment (5-year, 100,000 students in 614 Sindh schools, secured in 2025) provide a credible evidence base for engaging Czech Republic, EU/ECHO, Gates Foundation, and Germany against the 12-month NFR.^[7,9]

In The News

• Pakistan issues gate passes for 26 WFP containers at Torkham (Dawn Pakistan, 13 Jul 2026): First confirmed WFP humanitarian cargo movement through the Torkham crossing since Pakistan's border closure in October 2025 — a potential partial opening of a critical supply corridor that WFP logistics must monitor for sustained access.^[4]
• NDMA Multi-Hazard Alert: KP, AJK, Punjab (news, 19 Jul 2026): Pakistan's NDMA issued a five-day extreme weather alert (19–23 July) across WFP's key operational provinces, compounding flood precursor signals already present in river gauge data and rainfall deficits ahead of the forecast-severe 2026 monsoon.^[6]
• Strait of Hormuz: Nine Consecutive Nights of US Strikes (Al Jazeera, 20 Jul 2026): Sustained US-Iran hostilities targeting commercial vessel-related infrastructure maintain severe upward pressure on global fuel and food commodity prices — directly feeding into Pakistan's already elevated wheat import costs and operational fuel budget pressures.^[15]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	CBT Transfer Value Inadequacy	Basic food basket at PKR 16,474/month (USD 59) — 9% above Feb 2026 baseline; casual labour/wheat flour ToT collapsed 34% YoY to 11.5 kg/day (Peshawar/Multan: 9 kg/day). Existing CBT values under-resourced in real terms.	1. Immediate formal adequacy review against PKR 16,474 basket and MPCT benchmarks (PKR 24,000 urban / PKR 23,000 rural). 2. Submit budget amendments or donor top-ups where transfer values fall below inter-agency standards.	Programme, VAM, Resource Mobilisation	RB Islamabad, HQ Programme	WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 9 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221701); CWG MEB/MPCT Report Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221535)	High
Financial	CSP Funding Gap — Nutrition Pipeline	USD 28.8M June–November 2026 NFR; any pipeline break interrupts specialised nutritious food to 362,000 women and children at 558 Nashonuma centres. 12-month NFR USD 90.10M.	1. Prioritise donor engagement against June–November window as immediate imperative. 2. Leverage AKU endline evidence (stunting −22% at 6 months) with EU/ECHO, Gates Foundation, Czech Republic, Germany.	Resource Mobilisation, Nutrition	RB Islamabad, HQ Partnerships	WFP Pakistan Country Brief Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)	High
Operational	2026 Monsoon Severity Exceeding Contingency Capacity	Government warns 2026 floods may be 25% more severe than 2025 (6.9M affected). 2025 response covered only ~5.4% of affected population due to USD 9.5M gap. NDMA multi-hazard alert issued 19–23 Jul 2026 for KP, AJK, Punjab.	1. Accelerate finalisation and activation of AA provincial protocols before monsoon peak. 2. Pre-position minimum USD 10M emergency reserve via standby donor agreement. 3. Coordinate with WFP Afghanistan on secondary displacement scenarios from KP floods.	Emergency Preparedness, Logistics, Programme	NDMA/PDMAs, RB Islamabad, CERF	WFP Pakistan Country Brief Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4208372); 2025 ACR	High
Strategic	Strait of Hormuz Conflict — Wheat Import and Fuel Cost Shock	Active US-Iran hostilities (nine consecutive nights of strikes as of 20 Jul 2026) maintain severe upward pressure on global fuel and commodity prices. Pakistan's wheat imports from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria face geopolitical corridor risk. Fuel already at PKR 393.4/L (+54.5% YoY).	1. Monthly monitoring of wheat import flows as leading indicator for domestic price trajectories. 2. Integrate import disruption scenarios into CBT transfer value reviews and operational cost projections. 3. Revise trucking/last-mile delivery budgets for Balochistan and KP.	VAM, Supply Chain, Logistics, Programme	RB Islamabad, HQ Supply Chain	WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report 9 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221701); Al Jazeera 20 Jul 2026 (ref://18)	High
Strategic	Iran-Linked Regional Escalation — Secondary Displacement into Balochistan/KP	Middle East conflict and ongoing Afghan returnee surge (29% week-on-week increase, 5–11 Jul 2026; Balochistan accounts for 63% of 2026 arrests) risk secondary displacement into provinces already carrying peak nutrition and emergency caseloads. No joint contingency figures or planning milestones with UNHCR/IOM documented.	1. Establish joint contingency planning milestones with UNHCR and IOM for western border scenarios. 2. Define quantified influx thresholds triggering activation of contingency food/cash pipelines in Balochistan and KP.	Programme, Emergency Preparedness, Partnerships	UNHCR, IOM, RB Islamabad	WFP Pakistan Country Brief Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4216008); UNHCR-IOM Flash Update #102 (doc_id: 4221769)	High
Fiduciary	Nashonuma SNF Diversion and Accountability Gap	Previously (Oct 2024 Internal Audit AR/24/09): CFM recorded 248 calls in 2023 from 1.3M beneficiaries — near-total accountability failure. Per 2025 ACR, 55+ cases of SNF diversion flagged within Nashonuma pipeline. CFM has since surged to 15,802 cases (+176%) — improved outreach but active programme integrity risk unresolved.	1. Sustain face-to-face CFM mechanisms at all facilitation centres. 2. Commission targeted investigation of 55+ SNF diversion cases and report findings to RASN quarterly. 3. Cross-reference HIES 2025 poverty data against NSR-based beneficiary lists for targeting accuracy.	Programme Integrity, Internal Audit, Accountability	OIOS, RASN, RB Islamabad	WFP PAK Internal Audit AR/24/09 Oct 2024; WFP PAK ACR 2025	Medium
Operational	CWG Leadership Obligation — Institutional Capacity Risk	WFP leads the Inter-Agency Cash Working Group with monthly price-monitoring obligations under the newly endorsed MEB framework (PKR 66,000 urban / PKR 65,000 rural, Jun 2026–May 2027). Failure to maintain dedicated CO capacity risks reputational damage and undermines the cash coordination architecture WFP leads.	1. Assign dedicated programme staff to the CWG taskforce. 2. Establish internal reporting triggers when monitored prices deviate materially from endorsed MEB values.	Programme, VAM	RB Islamabad	CWG MEB/MPCT Report Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4221535)	Medium

Note: More than 140 documents were reviewed covering the period April–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The 12-month NFR figures across Country Briefs reflect rolling updates: April 2026 CB reported USD 97.60M; May 2026 CB reported USD 103.15M; June 2026 CB (most authoritative, adopted throughout) reports USD 90.10M — the USD 13M reduction likely reflects contributions received between publication dates. The June 2026 figure is used consistently. Additionally, IPC absolute Phase 3+ figures are not directly comparable between December 2025 (7.5M, analysed population 35.6M) and March 2026 (10.6M, analysed population 53.4M) due to a significant expansion of the analysed population — the operative current figure is the projected 9.2M for the April–September 2026 lean season window.^[8]

Footnotes

1. WFP Pakistan Weekly Market Report (9 July 2026) — World Food Programme, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221701)
2. WFP Pakistan Monthly Market Monitor — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218554)
3. Pakistan Market Monitor Report — World Food Programme, April 2026 (doc_id: 4213018)
4. Dawn (Pakistan), "Pakistan issues gate passes for WFP containers at Torkham," 13 July 2026 (ref://25)
5. News intelligence: PIPS Security Report 2025 analysis, 19 July 2026 (ref://47)
6. News intelligence: NDMA multi-hazard alert, 19 July 2026 (ref://40)
7. WFP Pakistan Annual Country Report 2025 — World Food Programme, January 2026
8. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis Pakistan — March 2026 (Phase 3+ projection Apr–Sep 2026)
9. WFP Pakistan Country Brief June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216008)
10. UNHCR-IOM Pakistan Flash Update #102 — IOM/UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221769)
11. WFP Pakistan Country Brief April 2026 — World Food Programme, April 2026 (doc_id: 4208372)
12. Pakistan Inter-Agency CWG MEB and Cash Transfer Values Analysis Report — World Food Programme, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221535)
13. WFP Pakistan Internal Audit AR/24/09 — WFP Office of Internal Audit, September 2024
14. Devex, "FCDO commercial pipeline reveals £372.9M reduction in development contracts," 13 July 2026 (ref://30)
15. Al Jazeera, "US forces conduct nine consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iran," 20 July 2026 (ref://18)