Sudan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Sudan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 457M gap vs USD 656M Jul–Dec 2026 requirement (30% funded as of 17 Jul 2026)
Current Reach:	3.7M people assisted in June 2026 (WFP Sudan Country Brief, July 2026)
Population IPC 3+:	5.6M (proj., Jun–Sep 2026, Phase 3+, 67% of analysed pop.)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Sudan's civil war — now in its third year — remains the dominant driver of catastrophic humanitarian need. Famine is confirmed in El Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan), with 20+ additional districts across Darfur and Kordofan at serious famine risk.^[1]
• RSF is attributed as responsible actor in more than 80% of 2025 reported incidents targeting civilian infrastructure.^[2] A drone strike on Al Rahad's main market during peak morning activity on 20 July 2026 directly severed civilian food access in North Kordofan.^[3] El-Obeid — the sole major transit hub on the Khartoum–Darfur corridor — has sustained repeated RSF drone strikes destroying water, power, health, and education infrastructure, compounding displacement for an estimated 400,000 civilians and 100,000 IDPs.^[4]
• ACLED data for July 2026 records 159 conflict events and 403 fatalities — down 26% and 21% month-on-month respectively, though still significantly below the 12-month average of 250 events and 1,110 fatalities/month, indicating a volatile rather than resolved security environment.^[5]
• Port Sudan — WFP's principal logistics and administrative hub — is experiencing simultaneous electricity collapse, water supply failure, and civil unrest in Red Sea State and Omdurman, materially degrading the operating environment.^[4]
• A new cross-border displacement surge from Ethiopia's Tigray into eastern Sudan's Hamdayet–al-Hashaba corridor has emerged following fresh TPLF-federal fighting, adding pressure to Kassala state already severely stressed by Sudan's own civil war.^[6]
• Under the 2019–2026 CSP, WFP's strategic posture spans emergency crisis response (SO1), nutrition treatment and school feeding (SO2), resilience building (SO3), and common services/logistics (SO4).^[7] SO5 (national policy reform) remains fully suspended due to political incompatibility with the current operating environment.^[8]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC Special Snapshot (14 May 2026): 19.5 million people — 41% of Sudan's population — in acute food insecurity (Phase 3+); over 5 million at Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine).^[9] The operative lean-season projection (Jun–Sep 2026) is 5.6 million at Phase 3+ (67% of analysed population), with 2.2 million at Phase 4.^[5]
• Northeast Sudan hosts large displaced communities: White Nile (395,000 reached), Kassala (224,000), Gedaref (136,000), Northern (94,000), River Nile (78,000), and Red Sea (28,000).^[10]
• Food price inflation is acute across all commodities as of June 2026: wheat flour +14%, sorghum +22%, vegetable oil +22%, beef +22%, millet +16%, and salt +42% month-on-month. The unofficial SDG/USD exchange rate reached SDG 4,750/USD (+14% m/m).^[5]
• A Mercy Corps rapid supply chain assessment (July 2026) found that in assessed Darfur states, agricultural input supply chains have structurally atomised — large agri-food companies have departed, cooperatives have collapsed, and individual traders on informal credit are the dominant actors. Transport costs alone can equal or exceed input values; urea fertiliser is up more than 67% since May 2025, partly attributed to Strait of Hormuz closure.^[11]
• Sudan also hosts approximately 885,698 refugees and asylum-seekers (primarily White Nile, Kassala, and Gedaref states), compounding needs on receiving communities already under extreme pressure.^[12]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening. The food basket cost trajectory is the most acute near-term signal: the WFP Local Food Basket surged to SDG 2,762/unit in May 2026 — +14% month-on-month and +49% year-on-year — driven by currency depreciation (SDG 4,150/USD parallel market, -60% year-on-year) and harvest-season end effects.^[13] The 14% m/m LFB cost increase outpaces the 3.7% m/m casual wage rise, sharply eroding purchasing power for CBT beneficiaries.
• Petrol prices were +83% and diesel +144% year-on-year as of May 2026, directly inflating WFP transport costs.^[9] The partial Strait of Hormuz closure — through which approximately 20% of global oil transits — is adding an exogenous cost multiplier to fuel and fertiliser prices, with Darfur fertiliser prices already reflecting this shock.^[11]
• Seasonal rainfall deficit is severe: 3-month rainfall is below 75% of normal in 55 of 171 districts across North Darfur, Gedaref, and Kassala (worst: Jebel Moon at 46% of normal), with vegetation stress confirmed in 33 of these districts. Reduced cultivated area in the current planting cycle portends below-average harvests in late 2026, deepening food insecurity into 2027.^[5,11]
• The Adre crossing — primary Darfur logistics artery — is authorised only through 30 September 2026. No post-September contingency corridor plan has been documented.^[10]

WFP Operations:

• WFP reached 3.7 million people in June 2026 — the highest monthly figure in 2026 — including 1 million in Risk of Famine areas and 1.4 million through CBT (highest monthly CBT reach since conflict onset); 16,800 mt food and USD 14.7 million cash distributed.^[10]
• North Darfur scale-up milestone: WFP reached 108,000 people in El Fasher (highest monthly reach since July 2023) and 666,000 in Tawila, with CBT in Tawila reaching nearly 340,000 — an increase of 240,000 vs May 2026. New CBT rollout in As Salam, Nyala Janoub, and Nyala Shimal localities (South Darfur) reached approximately 134,000 people.^[10]
• Darfur reached 1.9 million people in June through the Adre crossing. Maximising prepositioning through this corridor before 30 September expiry is the single most time-critical logistics action.^[10]
• The Farchana (Chad)–West Kordofan nutrition corridor dispatched 40 mt in May 2026 after 9+ months of disruption — corridor sustainability remains uncertain and requires sustained Chad-side logistics support.^[9]
• LTC Telecoms sustains connectivity for approximately 1,700 humanitarian responders across 67 sites in 7 hubs — but the USD 5.5 million 2026 requirement remains entirely unfunded as of June 2026, threatening field communications, beneficiary safety reporting, and supply chain coordination.^[14]
• Sudan Nutrition Sector has 33 partners across 18 of 19 states (95% state coverage) but only 140 of ~189 localities (74% locality coverage). Northern state is 75% NNGO-delivered; Sennar is 100% NNGO-delivered — the highest concentration risk states.^[15]
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 12.1 million unique beneficiaries (beneficiary achievement rate 117.8% for SO1), delivering 324,000 mt food and USD 153.7 million CBT. SO2 nutrition reached 57.1% beneficiary achievement at 61.4% expenditure rate, with late SNF clearances and inconsistent funding timing as primary constraints.^[8]

Funding Outlook:

• Critical cliff. Six-month net funding requirement (July–December 2026): USD 656 million. Direct contributions received as of 17 July 2026: USD 199 million — leaving a gap of USD 457 million (70% unfunded).^[10] The minimum floor to sustain hyper-prioritised operations is USD 460 million; CBT is approximately 50% funded from July onwards.^[9]
• Rations are already cut to 70% for IPC Phase 5 areas and 50% for IPC Phase 4 areas as a direct funding-driven measure. Without emergency contributions meeting the USD 460 million floor, simultaneous ration and caseload cuts are unavoidable, risking famine deterioration in confirmed IPC5 areas.^[9]
• The USAID closure — confirmed as of mid-2025 — has removed the primary US bilateral aid architecture. The successor model is smaller and more transactional, with no replacement of equivalent scale emerging.^[15b] The Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan 2026 is funded at only 15% of the USD 1.6 billion appeal, signalling systemic regional response capacity risk.^[12]
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP Sudan was funded at 86% of annual needs, with USD 678.5 million in new contributions; the cumulative CSP funding gap stands at 30.98% since CSP start.^[8]

In The News

• Instability at WFP's Hub: Port Sudan Deteriorates (news): Simultaneous electricity collapse, water failure, and civil unrest in Red Sea State and Omdurman represent acute degradation of WFP's principal Sudan logistics base — pipeline continuity and staff safety require immediate contingency review.^[4]
• El-Obeid Under Sustained Drone Attack (news): RSF drone strikes have destroyed critical infrastructure in El-Obeid, the sole major transit node on the Khartoum–Darfur supply corridor — 400,000 civilians and 100,000 IDPs face compounding food access disruption at a chokepoint WFP cannot bypass.^[4]
• North Kordofan: Active WFP Distributions Amid Deteriorating Access (news): WFP is maintaining food distributions for 73,000 displaced beneficiaries in North Kordofan; however, access in West Darfur remains contingent on fragile local reconciliation, disease outbreaks in Blue Nile and South Kordofan are compounding nutrition risks, and fresh flood-driven displacement in White Nile State signals emerging acute needs.^[16]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Imminent food pipeline depletion and funding cliff	USD 457M gap vs USD 656M Jul–Dec 2026 requirement; CBT ~50% funded; food stocks projected to deplete from July 2026. Rations already cut to 70% (IPC5) and 50% (IPC4).	1. Pursue emergency donor contributions to meet minimum USD 460M floor. 2. Trigger immediate CBT transfer value review given 14% m/m LFB cost surge.	Programme, Finance, Partnerships	Regional Bureau, HQ Resource Mobilisation	WFP Sudan Country Brief July 2026 (doc_id: 4222897); WFP Sudan Country Brief May 2026 (doc_id: 4217639)	High
Operational	Adre crossing expiry severing primary Darfur logistics artery	Chad authorities' extension expires 30 September 2026; 1.9M people reached in June via this corridor. No post-September contingency corridor documented.	1. Maximise prepositioning through Adre before 30 September. 2. Initiate post-September contingency corridor plan immediately with WFP Chad.	Logistics, Supply Chain	WFP Chad CO, Regional Bureau	WFP Sudan Country Brief July 2026 (doc_id: 4222897); FSC Darfur Supply Chain Analysis, July 2026	High
Strategic	RSF attacks on civilian food infrastructure	RSF attributed in >80% of 2025 incidents; drone strike on Al Rahad market (20 July); El-Obeid transit hub systematically degraded. Pattern indicates deliberate targeting.	1. Escalate Protection Cluster documentation of food infrastructure attacks. 2. Assess alternative supply/distribution modalities for North Kordofan and El-Obeid corridor.	Access, Security, Advocacy	OCHA, Protection Cluster, HQ Advocacy	Sudan Protection Cluster Alert 23 July 2026 (doc_id: 4222822); Attacks on Health Care Sudan 08–21 July 2026 (doc_id: 4223403)	High
Operational	Currency depreciation eroding CBT transfer value	LFB cost SDG 2,762/unit (+14% m/m, +49% y/y); parallel rate SDG 4,150/USD (-60% y/y); wage growth 3.7% m/m — sharply compressing purchasing power. Bankak mobile transfer carries up to 20% cash-conversion fee in Darfur.	1. Trigger immediate CBT transfer value recalibration. 2. Monitor SDG/USD movements at both parallel and commercial bank levels monthly.	CBT, VAM, Finance	VAM, Regional Bureau	WFP Sudan Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4217107); FSC Darfur Supply Chain Analysis July 2026	High
Operational	LTC Telecoms entirely unfunded — field communications at risk	USD 5.5M 2026 requirement 100% unfunded as of June 2026. ~1,700 responders across 67 sites in 7 hubs. Degraded comms threatens beneficiary safety reporting and supply chain coordination.	1. Urgently mobilise funding against the USD 5.5M LTC requirement. 2. Identify bridging/emergency technology options for highest-priority hubs if full funding cannot be secured.	ICT, Security, Logistics	ETC, HQ Partnerships	LTC Situation Report #41 June 2026 (doc_id: 4220473)	High
Strategic	US funding architecture collapse reducing donor pool	USAID officially closed mid-2025; successor model is smaller and more transactional. Sudan Regional RRP funded at only 15% of USD 1.6B appeal. No equivalent-scale replacement confirmed.	1. Accelerate diversification toward EU, Gulf states, and non-traditional donors. 2. Engage European Commission as partial compensatory mechanism.	Partnerships, Finance	RB, HQ Partnerships	UNHCR Monthly External Update #120 June 2026 (doc_id: 4223840); Devex analysis (ref://3)	High
Fiduciary	NNGO concentration risk in nutrition delivery	Northern state 75% NNGO-delivered; Sennar 100% NNGO-delivered. 26% of localities without any nutrition sector coverage. Elevated fiduciary and operational risk at lowest-oversight nodes.	1. Increase INGO/UN agency presence in Northern and Sennar states. 2. Apply enhanced monitoring and spot-check frameworks for NNGO partners in these states.	Nutrition, Partnerships, M&E	Nutrition Cluster, Programme	Sudan Nutrition Sector Presence June 2026 (doc_id: 4223539)	Medium
Operational	Exogenous supply chain cost shock — Strait of Hormuz/Red Sea disruption	Partial Strait of Hormuz closure driving global fuel and fertiliser price inflation; Darfur urea up >67% since May 2025 partly attributed to this. Bab al-Mandeb disruptions compound Red Sea corridor risks for food commodity imports.	1. Accelerate local/regional procurement in Darfur using individual trader networks. 2. Model pipeline cost sensitivity to sustained 20%+ fuel price increase for H2 2026.	Logistics, Procurement, Supply Chain	Regional Bureau, Supply Chain Division	FSC Darfur Supply Chain Analysis July 2026; The New Humanitarian (ref://1); Crisis Group (ref://2)	Medium

Note: More than 313 documents were reviewed covering the period through August 2026. Intelligence is current as of 3 August 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The May 2026 WFP Country Brief (doc_id: 4217639) states a six-month funding requirement of USD 645.6 million (June–November 2026) with USD 183 million received; the July 2026 WFP Country Brief (doc_id: 4222897) states USD 656 million (July–December 2026) with USD 199 million received as of 17 July 2026 — these are different six-month windows and are not directly comparable; both are cited separately in this brief using their respective denominators. The July 2026 brief is the authoritative current figure. The IPC quantitative feed projects 5.6 million at Phase 3+ for the June–September 2026 lean season (67% of analysed population), which differs significantly from the 19.5 million Phase 3+ observed figure (Feb–May 2026) cited in WFP Country Briefs; the projected lean-season figure is the operative current estimate per IPC methodology and is labelled accordingly throughout this brief.

Footnotes

1. Sudan Situation Analysis 6/7/26–12/7/26 — Data Friendly Space, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223185)
2. Attacks on Health Care in Sudan, 08–21 July 2026 — Insecurity Insight, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223403)
3. Sudan Protection Cluster Alert: Attacks on Critical Civilian Infrastructure in North Kordofan — Protection Cluster/UNHCR, 23 July 2026 (doc_id: 4222822)
4. News reporting on Port Sudan deterioration and El-Obeid drone strikes, August 2026 (ref://34; ref://46)
5. ACLED conflict data and WFP VAM food price monitoring via HDX, July 2026; IPC Acute Food Insecurity data, January 2026 analysis (doc_id: HDX quantitative feed)
6. News reporting on Tigray–Sudan cross-border displacement, August 2026 (ref://35; ref://36)
7. WFP Sudan Country Strategic Plan 2019–2026 (csp://2019-2026)
8. WFP Sudan Annual Country Report 2025 (acr://2025)
9. WFP Sudan Country Brief — May 2026 — WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217639)
10. WFP Sudan Country Brief, July 2026 — WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222897)
11. Agriculture and Agro-Processing in Sudan: Rapid Supply Chain Analysis in South, Central, East and West Darfur — Mercy Corps/FSC, July 2026 (https://fscluster.org/sudan/document/agriculture-and-agro-processing-sudan)
12. Sudan Situation: UNHCR Monthly External Update #120 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4223840)
13. WFP Sudan Market Monitor — June 2026 — WFP/Logistics Cluster, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217107)
14. Sudan conflict — LTC Situation Report (Telecoms Area) #41, June 2026 — ETC/WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220473)
15. Sudan: Nutrition Sector Partner Operational Presence — June 2026 — Nutrition Cluster/WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223539) 15b. USAID closure and successor aid architecture — Devex, July 2026 (ref://3)
16. News reporting on WFP North Kordofan distributions and multi-hazard access deterioration, July 2026 (ref://45)