Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 81.2M unfunded (71%) of USD 115M BVD multi-country appeal as of 21 Jun 2026; Uganda CSP 6-month NFR N/A — not extractable from available sources
Current Reach:	N/A — no current WFP Uganda SitRep reach figure available in this cycle
Population IPC 3+:	473,368 people in IPC Phase 3+ (32% of analysed population); 41,259 in Phase 4 — Mar–Jul 2026 analysis

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda's humanitarian environment is simultaneously stressed by three converging shocks: an active Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak straddling the DRC–Uganda border, a pre-existing large-scale refugee caseload (1.9 million as of 2025), and a global funding contraction that has already forced structural ration reductions.^[1]
• The BVD outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by WHO on 17 May 2026. The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine or treatment; Uganda has confirmed approximately two dozen cases linked to DRC travel or secondary infection as of late June 2026.^[2]
• Cross-border restrictions along the DRC–Uganda corridor are actively disrupting livelihoods and market access for vulnerable communities, with dual population movement patterns — flight from case clusters and quarantine-based immobilisation — threatening WFP's ability to reach intended beneficiaries.^[3]
• The transmission corridor (Bunia → Parombo → Paidha → Uganda; South Sudan entry via Nimule/Rei River/Olikwi) requires WFP to align logistics and staff movement protocols with WHO's NPHI-led BVD readiness framework across three country operations simultaneously.^[4]
• USAID restructuring has compounded the structural funding crisis; reporting confirms operational disruptions in Uganda among the named countries affected by the USAID programme collapse across sub-Saharan Africa.^[5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC data (Mar–Jul 2026 analysis): 473,368 people in Phase 3+ (Crisis and above), including 41,259 in Phase 4 (Emergency), from an analysed population of 1,496,117. Note: the analysed population declined significantly from the previous analysis (1,927,593 in Jul 2025), making absolute comparisons unreliable — percentage-based comparison is more defensible.^[6]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP, Uganda's structural vulnerability baseline includes: 42% of 49.5 million people in multidimensional poverty; 45% of Karamoja households acutely food-insecure (IPC Phase 3+); 37% of the population undernourished; 62% of refugee households food-insecure.^[7]
• Previously (2025 ACR): severe funding shortfall forced ration reductions to as low as 22% of full ration and removal of approximately one million refugees from assistance in May 2025; negative coping strategies rose significantly post-prioritisation.^[8]
• Food price data (Apr 2026): white maize +21% month-on-month (UGX 1,812/kg); charcoal +31% (UGX 1,290/kg) — both indicating household purchasing power stress compounding food access deficits.^[6]
• A severe seasonal rainfall deficit is confirmed across 131 of 167 districts, with worst-affected areas recording only 59% of normal rainfall (Ntungamo); NDVI below normal in 9 of those districts confirms agricultural and pasture stress heading into mid-2026.^[6]

Trend Indicators:

• Conflict: June 2026 recorded 39 events and 24 fatalities — events up 95% and fatalities up 33% month-on-month against a 12-month average of 54 events and 32 fatalities/month. The spike is notable but remains below the annual mean in absolute terms; civilian targeting (16 events, 12 fatalities) warrants monitoring.^[6]
• BVD outbreak trajectory is unclear at seven weeks duration (as of 28 June 2026); the multi-country appeal remains 71% unfunded, and WFP has not yet confirmed whether food security and nutrition components are costed in any inter-agency Flash Appeal.^[1]
• UNDP projects GDP losses of up to USD 3.6 billion and 328,000 job losses across Africa in a worst-case regional spillover scenario; this macroeconomic pressure will deepen household food insecurity in Uganda's already stressed labour markets.^[9]
• Regional refugee pressure is escalating: a seven-country Sudan displacement surge as of 29 June 2026 is expected to require emergency funding top-ups for Uganda's CSP emergency response components under an anticipated Regional Refugee Response Plan co-led by UNHCR and WFP.^[10]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP Uganda reached 2,316,244 total unique beneficiaries; distributed 22,420 MT food and USD 30 million in cash-based transfers to refugees; treated MAM in 31,732 children and pregnant/breastfeeding women; delivered school meals to 216,343 children across 320 Karamoja schools; supported 76,609 smallholder farmers generating USD 5.9 million revenue.^[8]
• Previously (2025 ACR) SO performance: SO1 reached 203% beneficiary-achievement rate at 81% funding rate, requiring ration reductions to align costs; SO2 reached 174% beneficiary-achievement rate at full funding; SO3 reached only 52% beneficiary-achievement rate at 92% funding rate — underperformance attributed to strategic transition from treatment to prevention; SO4 reached 210% beneficiary-achievement rate at full funding.^[8]
• Current Reach: N/A — no WFP Uganda SitRep reach figure is available in this reporting cycle. The most recent operational baseline remains the 2025 ACR.
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP, WFP operates Uganda's largest cash-based transfer programme (primary modality where markets function); in-kind food continues in Karamoja and areas with limited market access. Programme adaptation requirements for BVD — PPE distribution, health awareness materials, staff protection protocols — impose parallel operational costs not fully captured in WFP's USD 45.7 million BVD response ask.^[11]
• Air transport facilitation between Kinshasa and Bunia (and onward to Mongwalu, Rwampara, Nyankunde) for the BVD response risks competing with existing UNHAS or logistics flights; UNHAS flight prioritisation protocols and surge capacity must be reviewed.^[12]

Funding Outlook:

• The BVD multi-country response appeal totals USD 115 million; as of 21 June 2026, USD 81.2 million (71%) remains unfunded, with only USD 33.8 million received or committed. WFP's own BVD ask of USD 45.7 million does not fully capture Uganda-specific food security and nutrition costing, and confirmation of whether these components are embedded in any inter-agency Flash Appeal remains an outstanding intelligence gap.^[1]
• Uganda CSP-level funding figures, appeal totals, and pipeline runway are not available in this reporting cycle. Previously (2025 ACR): WFP secured 88% of resources required against its needs-based plan (overall expenditure USD 120.27 million against USD 153.11 million available); SO6 was funded at only 30% of its needs-based plan.^[8]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP, WFP explicitly acknowledges that the global funding contraction since 2025 is expected to raise operational costs and exacerbate vulnerability; the 2024 refugee response plan faced a 54% budget shortfall, and the plan commits to multi-year diversified financing while prioritising life-saving interventions in shortfall scenarios.^[7]
• Confirmed donors for the BVD regional response include US Department of State and DG ECHO (supporting IMC operations across DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan); no amounts specified. These donor relationships represent the most accessible near-term mobilisation pathway for WFP food and nutrition components.^[13]

In The News

• WHO PHEIC: Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Uganda (WFP Stories, 29 Jun 2026): Confirms PHEIC declaration, ~two dozen Uganda cases, 8.7 million people facing compounding food insecurity in eastern DRC, and significant WFP funding gaps constraining scale of response — directly actionable for Uganda CO resource mobilisation.^[2]
• DRC Ceasefire Collapse and Cross-Border Displacement Risk (Actualité.cd, 30 Jun 2026): AFC/M23 accuses DRC of humanitarian blockade in controlled zones; six of eight Doha protocols remain unimplemented — sustained access constraints in eastern DRC directly threaten the refugee pipeline feeding Uganda's caseload and compound BVD containment.^[14]
• UNDP Economic Impact: USD 3.6B GDP Loss Projected in Ebola Spillover (news, 1 Jul 2026): UNDP projects up to USD 3.6 billion GDP contraction and 328,000 job losses across Africa if BVD spreads to South Sudan, Rwanda, or Angola — reinforcing the macro-economic case for urgent resource mobilisation and regional coordination by WFP.^[9]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	BVD Appeal Underfunding — Food & Nutrition Gap	USD 81.2M (71%) of the USD 115M BVD multi-country appeal unfunded as of 21 Jun 2026; WFP food/nutrition components not confirmed as costed in any Flash Appeal, leaving Uganda BVD response without a formal funding vehicle.	1. Immediately confirm whether food security/nutrition components are in the active Flash Appeal or WHO/OCHA mechanism. 2. Engage US Dept of State and DG ECHO — confirmed BVD donors — to expand contributions to include WFP food/nutrition components. 3. Escalate to RBN and HQ for emergency resource mobilisation.	Programme, Partnerships, Resource Mobilisation	RBN, HQ Emergencies	WHO Sitrep 06 (doc_id: 4218201), 21 Jun 2026; WFP Ebola Sitrep (doc_id: 4215037), 5 Jun 2026	High
Operational	BVD-Induced Access Disruption to Beneficiaries	Dual movement patterns — quarantine immobilisation and flight from case clusters — active on DRC–Uganda border as of 28 Jun 2026; cross-border restrictions disrupting livelihoods and market access for vulnerable communities.	1. Adapt distribution modalities to contactless/take-home rations and expand CBT where markets remain functional. 2. Map affected distribution points against confirmed quarantine zones and realign delivery schedules within 72 hours.	Logistics, Programme, VAM	WHO country offices, UNICEF, National Health Authorities	WHO Sitrep 07 (doc_id: 4218640), 28 Jun 2026; WFP Ebola Sitrep (doc_id: 4218743), 26 Jun 2026	High
Strategic	Inter-Regional Coordination Gap Across BVD Corridor	Three-country BVD footprint maps onto at minimum two WFP regional bureaus (RBN covering Uganda/South Sudan; separate bureau for DRC); no confirmed WFP inter-regional task force exists, risking exclusion of food/nutrition from the joint response plan.	1. Establish or confirm RD-level coordination mechanism across RBN and DRC bureau within one week. 2. Embed WFP food/nutrition components in WHO's inter-country coordination committee framework immediately.	Programme, Partnerships, Management	RBN, HQ, WHO inter-country coordination committee	IMC Sitrep 9 (doc_id: 4218884), 1 Jul 2026; WHO South Sudan Sitrep (doc_id: 4218705), 15–21 Jun 2026	High
Financial	Sudan Refugee Surge — Uganda CSP Emergency Top-Up Requirement	Seven-country Sudan displacement surge as of 29 Jun 2026 expected to trigger a Regional Refugee Response Plan requiring emergency funding top-ups for Uganda CSP emergency components; Uganda-specific share not yet quantified.	1. Confirm Uganda CSP emergency top-up requirement and coordinate with UNHCR co-lead on anticipated RRRP. 2. Pre-position advocacy materials quantifying Uganda's share for donor engagement.	Programme, Partnerships, Resource Mobilisation	UNHCR, RBN	UNHCR Sudan Movements (doc_id: 4218805), 29 Jun 2026	Medium
Operational	UNHAS/Logistics Flight Capacity Competition	BVD airlift requirements (Kinshasa–Bunia; Bunia to Mongwalu, Rwampara, Nyankunde) risk competing with existing WFP UNHAS/logistics flights serving the DRC–Uganda corridor.	1. Review UNHAS prioritisation protocols and surge capacity within 48 hours of confirmed airlift competition. 2. Coordinate with Logistics Cluster to identify alternative surface routes where feasible.	Logistics, UNHAS	Logistics Cluster, DRC CO	DRC Ebola Concept of Operations (doc_id: 4213911), May 2026	Medium
Operational	Seasonal Rainfall Deficit — Agricultural and Market Stress	Severe rainfall deficit confirmed across 131 of 167 Uganda districts (worst: Ntungamo at 59% of normal); NDVI below normal in 9 districts — agricultural stress will depress harvest and compress household purchasing power during BVD response period.	1. Prioritise VAM market monitoring cadence in affected districts to detect price spikes requiring CBT transfer value adjustments. 2. Coordinate early warning triggers with FAO and meteorological authority under SO1 anticipatory action framework.	VAM, Programme, Logistics	FAO, Uganda Meteorological Authority, RBN	WFP VAM quantitative feed, dekad to 21 Jun 2026; 2026–2030 CSP (SO1)	Medium
Financial	Structural Underfunding — Ration Adequacy and Pipeline Continuity	Previously (2025 ACR): rations cut to 22% and ~1 million refugees removed from assistance; 2025 CSP funded at 88% of needs-based plan; SO6 at 30%. Global ODA fell 23.3% in 2025 with further decline projected — pipeline continuity for 2026 is structurally at risk.	1. Implement vulnerability-based targeting to prioritise most acute caseloads (IPC Phase 3+, newly arrived refugees, MAM children). 2. Diversify funding base through multi-year agreements per CSP strategic risk framework; escalate pipeline break risk to donors with named deadlines.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation, Finance	RBN, HQ, Donors	2025 ACR (UGA); 2026–2030 CSP funding outlook; Devex ODA analysis (ref://12)	High
Strategic	USAID Restructuring — Systemic Funding Architecture Shock	Reporting confirms operational disruptions in Uganda among countries named as affected by USAID programme collapse; WFP partially backstops collapsed USAID-funded programming in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing caseload pressure without commensurate funding.	1. Map USAID-funded activities now at risk in Uganda and quantify the gap WFP is absorbing. 2. Accelerate engagement with EU, Member States, and private sector funders to fill structural gap per CSP funding diversification strategy.	Programme, Partnerships, Resource Mobilisation	RBN, HQ, ECHO, EU Delegations	News intelligence (ref://43), 1 Jul 2026	Medium

Note: More than 148 documents were reviewed from the period March–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 2 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• IPC absolute figures are not directly comparable across periods: the analysed population shifted from 1,927,593 (Jul 2025 analysis) to 1,496,117 (Mar–Jul 2026 analysis), meaning the apparent 49% decline in Phase 3+ population (919,840 to 473,368) reflects a change in the scope of the analysed population, not necessarily a real improvement in food security conditions at scale; Uganda CSP-level funding figures, current WFP reach, and Q1 2026 food security/nutrition dashboard figures (IPC classifications, GAM/SAM rates, FCS/rCSI distributions) remain unavailable in this reporting cycle, creating a significant gap in operational validation.

Footnotes

1. Ebola Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak: DRC | Uganda, Weekly External Situation Report 06 — WHO, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218201)
2. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — WFP Stories, June 2026 (doc_id: 4215037; ref://4)
3. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — External Situation Report — WFP, 26 June 2026 (doc_id: 4218743)
4. WHO Weekly Situation Update on Ongoing Health Emergency Events in South Sudan — Week 25 — WHO, 15–21 June 2026 (doc_id: 4218705)
5. News intelligence — USAID restructuring impacts on Uganda — 1 July 2026 (ref://43)
6. WFP VAM/HDX quantitative data feed — ACLED, IPC, WFP VAM — analysis period Mar–Jul 2026; ACLED June 2026; food prices April 2026; rainfall dekad to 21 June 2026
7. Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — WFP, 2026
8. Uganda Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2025
9. UNDP economic impact report on DRC–Uganda Ebola outbreak — 1 July 2026 (ref://38)
10. Sudan Emergency: Population Movements from Sudan — UNHCR, 29 June 2026 (doc_id: 4218805)
11. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — External Situation Report — WFP, 5 June 2026 (doc_id: 4215037)
12. DRC — Ebola Response Concept of Operations — Logistics Cluster/WFP, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213911)
13. Ebola Outbreak, DRC and Region, Situation Report #9 — International Medical Corps, 1 July 2026 (doc_id: 4218884)
14. AFC/M23 Doha peace process accusations — Actualité.cd, 30 June 2026 (ref://3)