Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	WFP Uganda CSP 2026–2030 totals USD 784.7M; 2025 ACR records 32% CSP funding gap; Uganda social protection sector: 100% UNICEF funding gap (USD 2.9M, end-2025)
Current Reach:	Previously (2025 ACR): 2.3 million beneficiaries reached; WFP anticipatory action cash activated in Kotido District (Karamoja), June 2026, reaching 6,000+ households
Population IPC 3+:	IPC Phase 3+: 473,368 people (32% of analysed population of 1.496M), Mar–Jul 2026; Phase 4 (Emergency): 41,259

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda hosts 1.97 million refugees (as of December 2025), sub-Saharan Africa's largest refugee population: 52% children, 77% women and children, 6.8% with disabilities, and 47,991 unaccompanied or separated children (UASC).^[1]
• A confirmed 50%+ collapse in humanitarian financing has translated directly into WFP ration cuts to approximately USD 3/person/month — operationally insufficient against a May 2026 food basket cost of USD 9.42 (comparable regional benchmark from Rwanda WFP Country Brief).^[2] The 2025 ACR records ration reductions to as low as 22% and the removal of approximately one million refugees from assistance in May 2025 as a prioritisation exercise.^[3]
• The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak (WHO PHEIC declared 17 May 2026) has generated approximately two dozen Uganda-linked cases, all tied to DRC travel or secondary infection, and has triggered cross-border restrictions that directly threaten market-based cash and voucher transfer modalities where local market functionality is a programme prerequisite.^[4] A WFP-identified coordination gap between DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan remains unresolved.^[5]
• Severe rainfall deficit affects 131 of 167 districts (3-month rainfall below 75% of normal; worst: Ntungamo at 59%), with confirmed vegetation stress (NDVI below normal) in 9 deficit districts — compounding agricultural stress ahead of harvest.^[6] Karamoja's chronic food-nutrition insecurity is partially offset by an active WFP anticipatory action cash intervention in Kotido District, reaching 6,000+ households before the dry-season peak.^[7]
• Uganda's Anti-Homosexuality Act has prompted donor aid reductions including a NOK 50 million Norwegian cut, with Norway calling for a pivot away from government-to-government assistance — a reputational and financing risk for government-aligned programmes under the 2026–2030 CSP.^[8]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC analysis (April 2026, period Mar–Jul 2026) classifies 473,368 people (32% of the 1.496 million analysed population) in Phase 3+ Crisis or worse, including 41,259 in Phase 4 Emergency.^[9] Note: the analysed population contracted significantly from 1.927 million (July 2025 analysis) to 1.496 million — percentage comparisons are more reliable than absolute figures.
• Food security for Uganda-hosted refugees is inferred from origin-country conditions: DRC-origin arrivals (54% of 147,000 in 2025) frequently present with acute malnutrition above emergency thresholds; Sudan-origin arrivals (15%) carry elevated burden consistent with Sudan's IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) conditions; South Sudanese in protracted settings typically present IPC Phase 3 without WFP assistance.^[10]
• White maize prices rose 21% month-on-month (April 2026 VAM data), charcoal +31% — compounding household purchasing power erosion. Cassava fell 16% and leafy vegetables fell 14%, offering partial offset for the most vulnerable.^[11]
• A protection crisis is documented in refugee settlements: 155 suicide incidents across 13 settlements; primary school enrolment declined from 95% (2023) to 79% (2025), with teacher shortage risk flagged in 92 schools by 2026.^[1] This signals broader wellbeing collapse with food security co-implications.

Trend Indicators:

• Conflict events in Uganda doubled month-on-month: 42 events and 25 fatalities in June 2026, up from 20 events and 18 fatalities in May 2026 (ACLED). June figures remain below the 12-month average of 55 events/33 fatalities, suggesting a spike rather than a structural escalation — but civilian-targeting events (17 of 42) warrant monitoring.^[12]
• South Sudan's crisis — 7.8 million people (55% of population) in IPC Phase 3+ and WFP forced into triage mode focused on Phase 5 populations — is directly pressuring Uganda's refugee caseload as push factors intensify.^[13] South Sudan-origin arrivals represent 29% of Uganda's 2025 new arrivals.
• Ebola geographic spread: the outbreak has expanded beyond the original three eastern DRC provinces into Tshopo and Haut-Uele, with civil society-led suspension of all public road transport and commercial flights between Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Aru now in effect for over one week — compounding cross-border supply chain risks for Uganda.^[14]
• Six-country simultaneous Sudanese return movements (including from Uganda) documented as of 30 June 2026 add repatriation-linked caseload complexity, though no Uganda-specific flow volumes are available.^[15]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2.3 million beneficiaries, distributed 22,420 MT food and USD 30 million cash-based transfers (CBT) to refugees; treated MAM in 31,732 children and pregnant/breastfeeding women and girls; supported 76,609 smallholder farmers generating USD 5.9 million revenue; delivered school meals to 216,343 children across 320 Karamoja schools.^[3]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 achieved 203% beneficiary-achievement rate against plan at 81% funding rate, requiring ration reductions to align costs with available resources; SO3 reached 52% beneficiary-achievement rate against planned MAM treatment caseload of 38,145 (19,806 treated); SO2 reached 173% beneficiary-achievement rate (223,136 vs 128,450 planned); SO4 reached 210% beneficiary-achievement rate (76,609 vs 36,560 planned); SO6 recorded 303% expenditure rate against implementation plan, reflecting a severely understated implementation plan relative to USD 4.26 million needs.^[3]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP (total cost: USD 784.7 million; 2,665,530 beneficiaries planned over the full window), WFP is shifting from emergency-delivery toward enabling government systems for social protection, school meals, nutrition, and disaster risk management — with explicit handover milestones and multi-year government agreements.^[16] SO1 carries the largest budget (USD 610.6 million) covering needs-based refugee food assistance, crisis-affected Ugandan response, and nutrition programming.
• Logistics Cluster activation for cold chain and transport support to Ebola health actors represents an immediate service delivery opportunity — assessment within 48 hours recommended per WFP DRC Ebola Sitrep.^[5]

Funding Outlook:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP secured 88% of resources against its needs-based plan (including 2024 carryover). The 2024 refugee response plan faced a 54% budget shortfall; the 2026–2030 CSP explicitly acknowledges that large-scale shocks may require future budget revisions.^[3,16]
• Uganda social protection sector faces a 100% UNICEF funding gap (USD 2.9M) as of end-2025, undermining complementary programming for 1.97 million refugees — particularly the 47,991 UASC and the 6.8% with disabilities.^[1]
• Sudan's humanitarian response is historically 30–50% funded against appeals; any returnee caseload absorbed by Uganda without dedicated funding lines represents a material risk to WFP Uganda pipeline planning.^[15]
• An IASC system-wide scale-up potentially triggering a Flash Appeal or CERF rapid-response allocation linked to the Bundibugyo outbreak covering DRC and Uganda should be monitored; WFP must ensure emergency food assistance, nutrition, and Logistics Cluster cost requirements are pre-positioned for inclusion.^[17]
• Norway's NOK 50 million aid cut linked to Uganda's Anti-Homosexuality Act represents a concrete near-term financing risk, particularly for government-aligned social protection programmes under SO3.^[8]

In The News

• Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC: Uganda cases, cross-border spread, and WFP food/logistics operations (WFP Stories): Uganda reports approximately two dozen Ebola cases linked to DRC, with WHO PHEIC status confirmed; WFP is adapting modalities to contactless distributions and assessing Logistics Cluster activation while facing significant funding shortfalls.^[4]
• Uganda refugee response: USD 3/month ration and structural funding collapse (news): A confirmed 50%+ humanitarian financing reduction is producing measurable multi-sector deterioration — food security, nutrition, protection, education — for over two million refugees, with rations far below minimum thresholds.^[2]
• Ebola expands to Tshopo and Haut-Uele; Bunia transport suspension (Radio Okapi): Civil society-led suspension of all public road transport and commercial flights between Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Aru — now exceeding one week — is directly impairing cross-border supply chain access into Uganda.^[14]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Ebola-driven market access collapse and modality disruption	Cross-border restrictions linked to Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak (WHO PHEIC) are disrupting CBT modalities where local market functionality is a programme prerequisite; Bunia-Mongbwalu-Aru transport suspended >1 week.	1. Urgently reassess market functionality in Ebola-affected border districts; shift to in-kind where markets have collapsed. 2. Join IOM continental PoE technical working group within 72 hours. 3. Complete Logistics Cluster activation assessment within 48 hours.	Programme, Logistics, VAM	RBN Logistics Cluster, IOM PoE TWG	WFP Response to Ebola Outbreak External SitRep, 26 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4218743); IOM Multi-Country BVD SitRep No.7, 28 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219523); Radio Okapi, 4 Jul 2026 (ref://22)	High
Operational	Acute malnutrition burden among multi-origin refugee new arrivals	147,000 new arrivals in 2025 (DRC 54%, South Sudan 29%, Sudan 15%) frequently present with acute malnutrition above emergency thresholds at entry; South Sudan crisis (7.8M in IPC 3+) is intensifying push factors.	1. Prioritise nutrition screening and treatment capacity at all points of entry, especially for DRC- and Sudan-origin arrivals. 2. Integrate UNHCR active population counts (Annex I, 30 Jun 2026) into food security caseload calculations immediately.	Nutrition, Programme, Supply Chain	UNICEF (MAM/SAM joint programmes), UNHCR	Uganda Overview of Refugees, 30 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219221); UNICEF ESAR Sitrep No.2, Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)	High
Financial	Structural funding collapse producing life-threatening ration cuts	USD 3/month per refugee ration (approximately 32% of May 2026 food basket cost) is operationally insufficient; ~1 million refugees removed from assistance in May 2025; 32% CSP funding gap (2025 ACR); 100% UNICEF social protection gap (USD 2.9M).	1. Escalate funding gap to Regional Bureau and donors without delay. 2. Engage CERF/Flash Appeal process linked to Ebola response. 3. Coordinate with UNICEF on joint social protection resource mobilisation within ESAR framework.	Programme, Partnerships, Finance	CERF Secretariat, bilateral donors, UNICEF ESAR	2025 ACR (UGA); UNICEF ESAR Sitrep No.2, Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325); news ref://49	High
Strategic	DRC conflict-driven displacement surge and Ebola compounding	AFC/M23 (backed by 14,000–18,000 Rwandan troops) controls North and South Kivu; drone strikes on Bangoka airport threaten humanitarian air access; Ebola now spans 33+ health zones — jointly accelerating DRC-origin refugee arrivals into Uganda.	1. Develop contingency plan for 20–30% arrival surge scenario in West Nile and Northern Uganda settlements within 30 days. 2. Coordinate with UNHCR on reception capacity and WFP emergency pipeline pre-positioning.	Programme, Emergency Preparedness, Logistics	RBN, UNHCR, Logistics Cluster	Radio Okapi, 2 Jul 2026 (ref://2); WFP DRC Ebola SitRep, 30 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219233); Actualité.cd, 3 Jul 2026 (ref://1)	High
Strategic	Donor aid reductions linked to Anti-Homosexuality Act	Norway cut NOK 50 million and called for a pivot away from government-to-government assistance; risk of additional bilateral donor reductions affecting government-aligned programmes under CSP 2026–2030 SO3 (social protection, school meals, national systems).	1. Map all SO3 activities with government co-delivery exposure and identify alternative delivery partners within 60 days. 2. Engage RBN Partnerships team on donor diversification strategy specific to Uganda context.	Partnerships, Programme (SO3), Finance	RBN Partnerships, Legal	News ref://60; 2026–2030 CSP (UGA)	Medium
Strategic	Protection crisis in refugee settlements signalling wellbeing collapse	155 suicide incidents across 13 settlements; enrolment decline from 95% (2023) to 79% (2025); teacher shortage risk in 92 schools by 2026; 47,991 UASC — all co-drivers of food security deterioration and negative coping strategies.	1. Strengthen joint WFP-UNICEF programming addressing education-protection-nutrition nexus for UASC caseload. 2. Ensure settlement-level food security assessments disaggregate UASC and disability sub-groups in targeting frameworks.	Programme, Protection, Nutrition	UNICEF, UNHCR Child Protection	UNICEF ESAR Sitrep No.2, Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)	Medium
Operational	Severe rainfall deficit compounding agricultural stress in 131 districts	3-month rainfall below 75% of normal in 131 of 167 districts; NDVI below normal in 9 districts confirming pasture/crop stress; 10-day rainfall shortfall acute in 167 districts (Kibuku: 13% of normal). Karamoja anticipatory action partially mitigating.	1. Accelerate FEWS NET/VAM updated food security projections for lean season (FEWS NET Feb 2026–Jan 2027 outlook body text remains unavailable — request directly). 2. Expand anticipatory action triggers to additional Karamoja and northern Uganda districts where NDVI and rainfall indicators breach thresholds.	VAM, Programme, Emergency Preparedness	FAO, Meteorological Authority, Red Cross	WFP VAM Climate Data, dekad to 21 Jun 2026; news ref://55	Medium
Fiduciary	Fraud and corruption risk under prioritisation and targeting pressures	CSP 2026–2030 explicitly identifies fraud and corruption as a strategic risk; ration cuts and large-scale deprioritisation create incentive environments for diversion, targeting manipulation, and community tension. No current allegations identified.	1. Activate enhanced community feedback mechanisms and data analytics monitoring in settlements with confirmed ration reductions. 2. Ensure UNHCR data-sharing agreements for beneficiary verification remain current and cover newly arrived caseload.	Finance, Internal Audit, Programme	OIOS, RBN Risk Management	2026–2030 CSP strategic risks summary (UGA)	Medium

Note: More than 158 documents were reviewed from the period June–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 6 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Ebola fatality figures diverge across sources: WFP/WHO assessments referenced in the substrate record approximately 360 deaths and 1,274–1,406 confirmed cases in DRC as of late June 2026 (adopted as primary per lane authority); regional media including SCMP and Radio Okapi cite 438–440 deaths and 1,400+ confirmed cases across overlapping but not identical reporting periods — the higher figures are not corroborated by the WFP/WHO assessment texts available and may reflect different case definition windows or inclusion of probable cases. The USD 2.9M social protection funding gap is attributed in the substrate to Uganda specifically within the UNICEF ESAR Sitrep (doc_id: 4219325); however, the same document's raw figures (Eswatini 98% gap at USD 2.9M) share the identical dollar amount — this briefing adopts the Uganda-specific 100% social protection gap (USD 2.9M) as verbatim from the substrate but flags that cross-verification against a Uganda-standalone UNICEF document is recommended before external citation.

Footnotes

1. UNICEF Eastern and Southern Africa Region Humanitarian Situation Report No.2 (End of Year), 31 December 2025 — UN Children's Fund, December 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)
2. WFP Rwanda Country Brief, June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217395) [food basket cost benchmark used for regional comparison only]
3. WFP Uganda Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025 (ACR report_year: 2025)
4. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — External Situation Report, 26 June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4218743)
5. WFP Ebola Response Situation Report, Democratic Republic of Congo, 30 June 2026 — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4219233); Rapport de situation sur la riposte Ebola, PAM RDC — World Food Programme, June 2026 (doc_id: 4219236)
6. WFP VAM Climate/Rainfall Anomaly Data, dekad to 21 June 2026 — WFP VAM
7. WFP Uganda Anticipatory Action, Kotido District, June 2026 — news ref://55
8. Uganda Anti-Homosexuality Act donor response — news ref://60
9. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, Uganda, April 2026 (period: March–July 2026) — IPC Global Initiative
10. Uganda — Overview of Refugees and Asylum-Seekers, 30 June 2026 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)
11. WFP VAM Food Price Monitoring, Uganda, April 2026 — WFP VAM (data as of 15 April 2026)
12. ACLED Conflict Data, Uganda, June 2026 — ACLED via HDX
13. South Sudan food security crisis — news ref://34; ref://35; ref://39
14. Radio Okapi, 4 July 2026 — ref://22; IOM Multi-Country BVD Outbreak SitRep No.7, 22–28 June 2026 — International Organization for Migration, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219523)
15. CORE Sudan Situation: Sudanese Return from Neighbouring Countries, 30 June 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219571)
16. WFP Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — World Food Programme
17. IOM Multi-Country BVD Outbreak SitRep No.7, 22–28 June 2026 — International Organization for Migration, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219523)