Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 46.1M (Oct 2025–Mar 2026); WFP 2026 UCRRP requirement USD 115.8M
Current Reach:	909,666 people assisted (Sep 2025)
Population IPC 3+:	352,285 (proj., Aug 2026–Feb 2027, 24% of analysed pop.)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda hosts 1,971,983 registered refugees (UNHCR, Dec 2025) — sub-Saharan Africa's largest caseload — across 13 settlements, driven by South Sudan (52.5%), DRC (32.8%), and Sudan/Burundi (remainder).^[1] The 2026–2030 CSP pivots from direct delivery toward enabling government-led social protection, school meals, nutrition, and disaster risk systems, while sustaining emergency refugee response as its largest budget line (SO1: USD 610.6M of USD 784.7M total plan cost).^[2]
• Karamoja is experiencing an acute food emergency: FEWS NET has issued an IPC Crisis classification for 1.5 million people following complete crop failure since April 2026, with at least 19 confirmed hunger-related deaths — structurally analogous to the 2022 crisis that killed over 2,000.^[3] Fuel and cooking fuel prices are rising sharply (charcoal +12%, firewood +13% month-on-month to June 2026), compounding household food access constraints.^[4]
• Uganda declared its Ebola (Bundibugyo) outbreak closed on 29 July 2026 following a 42-day no-case monitoring window (20 confirmed cases at closure).^[5] Cross-border re-introduction risk from DRC remains acute: the DRC outbreak has surpassed 3,500 cases and 1,556 deaths as of 31 July 2026, is the fastest-growing Ebola event on record, and spans 49 health zones across five eastern provinces directly bordering Uganda's refugee settlements.^[6]
• ACLED recorded 7 conflict events and 4 fatalities in Uganda in July 2026 — significantly below the 12-month average of 28 events and 16 fatalities — indicating a domestic security environment that is currently calm relative to trend.^[4]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The 2025 Food Security and Nutrition Assessment (FSNA, June–July 2025) found 65% of refugee households food insecure — 7% severely — with poor food consumption rising from 4.8% (2024) to 15.1% (2025); West Nile sub-region is the acute outlier at 75.4% food insecurity versus 47.0% in Southwest.^[7]
• IPC data (Apr 2026 analysis): 473,368 people observed in Phase 3+ (Crisis+) during Mar–Jul 2026; the operative projected caseload for Aug 2026–Feb 2027 is 352,285 (24% of analysed population, proj.), with Phase 4 projected at zero — a significant decline from the Jul 2025 observed figure of 919,840, though the analysed population also contracted (1,927,593 → 1,496,117), making percentage comparison more reliable than absolute figures.^[4] Note: this analysis is four months old and predates Karamoja's confirmed June–July 2026 drought-induced emergency.
• FEWS NET projects 2.5–2.99 million people in need of food assistance nationally through January 2027, encompassing both refugees and food-insecure Ugandans, particularly in Karamoja and northern Uganda.^[8]
• Previously (2025 ACR): the May 2025 prioritisation exercise removed approximately one million refugees from food assistance due to the USAID-related funding shock; negative coping strategies among refugees rose significantly post-prioritisation.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening. Poor food consumption tripled year-on-year among refugees (4.8% → 15.1%); total refugee food insecurity increased from 62% to 65% between 2024 and 2025 FSNAs. Karamoja has deteriorated into confirmed famine-adjacent conditions. The structural CSP funding gap has not closed.
• Rainfall deficits are severe: as of the dekad ending 11 July 2026, 82 of 167 districts recorded 3-month rainfall below 75% of normal, with Kaabong at 48% of normal over 10 days; NDVI depression confirmed in 51 districts, signalling active agricultural and pasture stress.^[4]
• Origin-country crises are not abating. South Sudan faces 7.8 million people at IPC Phase 3+ and 2.5 million IDPs; DRC's M23-controlled eastern territory is expanding with no credible peace off-ramp per analyst assessments; Sudan's conflict has displaced over 13 million.^[10],[11] Each escalation translates directly into new arrivals at Uganda's settlements.
• Global aid contraction is accelerating: US cuts of USD 11 billion to food relief, continued UK aid reduction, and USAID's dismantlement are structurally narrowing the donor base sustaining WFP Uganda's refugee operations.^[12]

WFP Operations:

• As of September 2025 (per WFP Country Brief, October 2025): WFP assisted 909,666 people, distributing 3,605 mt in-kind food and USD 3.6M in cash-based transfers (CBT).^[13] Ration tiers remain: 60% of full entitlement for newly arrived refugees; 40% for most vulnerable settlement-based; 22% for less vulnerable — with 713,000 refugees directly affected by the structural funding shortfall.^[13]
• CBT delivery split (Sep 2025): 46% agency banking, 35% cash-in-hand, 19% mobile money. The 35% cash-in-hand dependency signals residual last-mile financial access gaps despite digitisation progress.^[13]
• Nutrition performance (Sep 2025): 94.3% MAM recovery rate in settlements and 80% in transit/reception centres — both exceeding Sphere standards — provides a strong evidence base for resilience advocacy.^[13]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 reached 203% beneficiary achievement rate at 81% funding rate against the needs-based plan, requiring ration reductions to align costs with available resources; SO2 reached 174% beneficiary achievement at full funding; SO3 (MAM treatment) reached 52% beneficiary achievement at 92% funding — the shortfall likely reflects the strategic shift toward prevention over treatment.^[9]
• Strategic opportunity: Old-age pension pilot (Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development) disbursed USD 14,938 to 296 refugees aged 80+ at September 2025 launch — a government social protection integration model with scale-up potential under the 2026–2030 CSP's enabling-government mandate.^[13]

Funding Outlook:

• The CSP 2018–2025 closed with a structural lifetime gap of approximately USD 620M (USD 2.0B required; USD 1.38B allocated).^[13] The cumulative CSP funding gap stands at 32.3% since plan start.^[9] Previously (2025 ACR), annual performance was stronger: WFP secured 88% of its annual needs-based plan, with overall expenditure of USD 120.27M against USD 153.11M available.^[9]
• The 2026–2030 CSP (USD 784.7M total, 2,665,530 planned beneficiaries) launches in a severely constrained global financing environment explicitly acknowledged in CSP strategic risks: the 2024 refugee response plan faced a 54% budget shortfall, and the 2025 aid-sector contraction is expected to raise operational costs and deepen vulnerability.^[2]
• WFP's 2026 UCRRP-declared requirement is USD 115.8M (South Sudan caseload: USD 60.2M; DRC caseload: USD 49.8M; Sudan caseload: USD 5.8M) against a total UCRRP ask of USD 850.2M (down from ~USD 960M in 2025 despite growing needs, reflecting partner reduction from 99 to 78 appealing partners).^[1]
• Note: the six-month net funding requirement windows cited in Jul–Sep 2025 Country Briefs (USD 49.2M, USD 46.6M, USD 46.1M) have no confirmed closure in available sources — status remains unverified.

In The News

• Uganda Declares Ebola Outbreak Over, But DRC Threat Persists (Al Jazeera, 29 Jul 2026): Uganda closed its Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak at 20 cases following a clean 42-day window, but the DRC outbreak — now exceeding 3,200 cases and 1,437 deaths and the fastest-spreading Ebola event ever recorded — poses a sustained re-introduction risk across Uganda's settlement border zones.^[5]
• DRC Ebola Exceeds 1,500 Deaths in Single-Week Surge (Al Jazeera): A 50% single-week increase in DRC Ebola deaths (Bundibugyo strain, ~31% case fatality rate) across conflict-affected eastern Ituri, with 49 health zones now affected, directly threatens to re-seed Uganda through aid-seeking cross-border movement — IOM recorded 337 persons crossing Uganda's DRC border specifically to collect aid during the May 2026 monitoring window.^[6]
• Karamoja Hunger Deaths and 1.5 Million at Risk (news, 29 Jul 2026): Karamoja's acute food emergency — 19 confirmed starvation deaths, 50–70% crop losses, IPC Crisis classification — represents a compounding demand shock for WFP Uganda at a moment when rations for 1.9 million refugees are already at 22–60% of entitlement and over one million were removed from assistance in May 2025.^[3]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Structural CSP funding shortfall driving further ration cuts	USD 620M lifetime CSP gap; 2026 WFP UCRRP requirement USD 115.8M unfunded; ration tiers at 22–60%; six-month NFR windows (USD 46–49M) unconfirmed closed. Any additional shortfall pushes most-vulnerable caseload below 40% threshold.	1. Immediate donor engagement targeting South Sudan (USD 60.2M) and DRC (USD 49.8M) caseloads separately using UCRRP disaggregation. 2. Escalate to RB level given cumulative 32.3% CSP gap and 2026–2030 CSP launch in severe financing environment.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation, Partnerships	RBN, HQ Resource Mobilisation	WFP Uganda Country Brief Sep 2025 (doc_id: 4183090); UCRRP 2026–2030 (doc_id: 4223737); ACR 2025 (acr://2025)	High
Strategic	Origin-country conflict escalation driving refugee influx beyond operational capacity	South Sudan (52.5% of caseload), DRC (32.8%) both facing active conflict deterioration with no credible near-term peace process; M23 expansion toward Fizi/Katanga could open new South Kivu displacement front; South Sudan has 7.8M at IPC 3+. New arrivals would be absorbed at ration levels already at 22–60%.	1. Real-time cross-border monitoring with WFP Juba and Kinshasa. 2. Joint RBN/RBJ contingency planning for influx surge scenarios with pre-agreed ration adjustment protocols.	Emergency Preparedness, Programme	RBN, RBJ, UNHCR	UCRRP 2026–2030 (doc_id: 4223737); East Africa Food Security Outlook (doc_id: 4223802); analyst assessments (ref://3, ref://43)	High
Operational	Karamoja acute food emergency creating compounding domestic demand	19 confirmed starvation deaths, 1.5M at IPC Crisis level, 50–70% crop failure since April 2026. Drought-induced emergency predates most recent IPC analysis (Apr 2026) and is not captured in projected Phase 3+ figures. Simultaneous with refugee ration reductions.	1. Activate anticipatory action protocols for Karamoja lean season (integrated under SO1 Activity 2). 2. Separate emergency donor appeal for Karamoja distinct from refugee funding lines to avoid cannibalism.	Programme, Emergency Response	RBN, Government (OPM)	FEWS NET Uganda Outlook (doc_id: 4221071); news (ref://39, ref://48)	High
Operational	Ebola re-introduction from DRC disrupting settlement operations	Uganda declared outbreak closed 29 Jul 2026, but DRC outbreak at 3,532 cases/1,556 deaths across 49 health zones; 337 persons crossed Uganda border to collect aid during May 2026 monitoring window. Re-introduction risk at settlement-border interface is acute.	1. Maintain WHO/tripartite coordination architecture engagement (DRC-Uganda-South Sudan). 2. Integrate flow monitoring data into settlement access protocols; pre-position health supplies ahead of confirmed re-introduction.	Logistics, Security, Programme	WHO, IOM, UNHCR, RBN	WHO Ebola Sitrep 11 (doc_id: 4223447); Al Jazeera (ref://21); IFRC South Sudan BVD (doc_id: 4223890)	High
Financial	Global aid architecture contraction reducing donor base	USAID dismantlement, US USD 11B food relief cuts, UK aid decline structurally narrowing Uganda's donor pool. CSP 2026–2030 explicitly flags severe global funding contraction since 2025 as primary strategic risk. May 2025 prioritisation exercise already removed ~1M refugees from assistance.	1. Accelerate diversification toward non-traditional donors and private sector per CSP mandate. 2. Multi-year financing agreements with remaining donors to reduce pipeline volatility.	Resource Mobilisation, Partnerships	HQ, RBN	CSP 2026–2030 (csp://2026-2030); ACR 2025 (acr://2025); news (ref://40)	High
Operational	Severe rainfall deficit threatening host-community food production and resilience programming	82 of 167 districts below 75% of seasonal normal rainfall (to 11 Jul 2026); Kaabong at 48% over 10 days; NDVI depression in 51 districts. Undermines SO2 livelihoods and resilience programming and risks expanding the domestic food assistance caseload projected at 2.5–2.99M through Jan 2027.	1. Accelerate anticipatory action integration into livelihoods programming (SO2). 2. Monitor FEWS NET updated projections for Karamoja and northern Uganda against available SO1 pipeline.	Programme, VAM	RBN, FAO, Meteorological Authority	FEWS NET Uganda Outlook (doc_id: 4221071); WFP-VAM climate data; news (ref://57)	Medium
Strategic	CSP 2026–2030 transition risk: handover milestones under-resourced	CSP explicitly shifts to enabling-government posture with handover milestones; SO6 funded at only 30% of needs-based plan in 2025 ACR, with expenditure drawing on cost-recovery funds. Social protection covers only 3.1% of Ugandans. Premature handover without government capacity risks programming gaps.	1. Define explicit handover readiness criteria before transferring activities to government systems. 2. Secure multi-year government agreements before reducing WFP direct delivery footprint.	Programme, Partnerships, Capacity Strengthening	Government (MGLSD, MoES), UNICEF, World Bank	CSP 2026–2030 (csp://2026-2030); ACR 2025 (acr://2025)	Medium

Note: More than 218 documents were reviewed covering the period through August 2026. The intelligence is current as of 3 August 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Uganda refugee population figures are inconsistent across WFP Country Briefs: July 2025 (doc_id: 4172603) and September 2025 (doc_id: 4183090) cite "more than 1.9 million" while August 2025 (doc_id: 4177983) cites "more than 1.8 million"; the July/September briefs also list Sudan among primary origin countries while August cites Burundi — the UNHCR UCRRP (doc_id: 4223737) figure of 1,971,983 as of 31 December 2025 is adopted as authoritative. Ebola case figures also diverge: Al Jazeera (ref://25) cites 3,442 cases/1,500+ deaths while the WHO Sitrep 11 (doc_id: 4223447) carries the more recent WHO-verified pipeline data; the WHO/news figure of approximately 3,532 cases/1,556 deaths as of 31 July 2026 (ref://34) is adopted as the most current available.

Footnotes

1. Uganda Country Refugee Response Plan 2026–2030 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4223737)
2. WFP Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — WFP, 2026 (csp://2026-2030)
3. Karamoja acute food emergency — FEWS NET/news, July 2026 (ref://39)
4. Quantitative Data Context — ACLED/WFP-VAM/IPC/GDACS, July 2026
5. Uganda Declares Ebola Outbreak Over — Al Jazeera, 29 July 2026 (ref://21)
6. DRC Ebola Bundibugyo — news/Al Jazeera, July–August 2026 (ref://25, ref://34); IOM Flow Monitoring Uganda (doc_id: 4213918)
7. Impact of Underfunding Indicators Tracking Matrix Uganda Q4 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216439)
8. Uganda Food Security Outlook June 2026–January 2027 — FEWS NET, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221071)
9. WFP Uganda Annual Country Report 2025 — WFP, 2025 (acr://2025)
10. South Sudan peace process deterioration — news, July 2026 (ref://43, ref://44)
11. Sudan conflict/displacement — Al Jazeera/news (ref://10, ref://45)
12. Global aid contraction — news, July 2026 (ref://40)
13. WFP Uganda Country Brief September 2025 — WFP, October 2025 (doc_id: 4183090)