Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 46.1M (Oct 2025–Mar 2026)
Current Reach:	909,666 people (Sep 2025)
Population IPC 3+:	473,368 Phase 3+ (32% of analysed pop., Mar–Jul 2026 observed; 352,285 projected Aug 2026–Feb 2027)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda's crisis is structurally defined by a protracted refugee emergency hosting 1.9 million refugees (primarily South Sudanese, Congolese, Burundian) across 13 settlements, operating against a cumulative CSP (2018–2025) funding gap of approximately USD 620 million — 32% of the USD 2.0 billion lifetime requirement against USD 1.38 billion allocated.^[1]
• The active Bundibugyo strain Ebola outbreak declared in eastern DRC on 15 May 2026 has crossed into Uganda, prompting a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern. EVD-linked border closure measures directly threaten the DRC–Uganda supply corridor; Entebbe has become the central regional staging hub, with 35 trucks (363 mt by road) and 27 C-130 rotations (296 mt by air) dispatched for DRC humanitarian operations.^[2]
• Uganda's government activated an emergency Shs 45 billion food distribution for approximately 314,000 drought-affected households in Karamoja amid a severe seasonal rainfall deficit: as of dekad to 1 July 2026, 96 of 167 districts recorded rainfall below 75% of normal, with confirmed agricultural stress in 21 districts (NDVI below normal).^[3]
• Political analyst Bob Kabamba assessed on 25 July 2026 that the Washington Agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali will not produce de-escalation, predicting durable hostilities — a structural driver sustaining DRC refugee flows into Uganda's settlements.^[4]

Vulnerability Scale:

• As of June–July 2025 FSNA: 65.0% of refugee households food insecure (75.4% West Nile; 47.0% Southwest); poor food consumption at 15.1%, up from 4.8% in 2024; 7.0% severely food insecure.^[5] Nearly 2 million refugees in Uganda are at IPC Phase 4 (WFP Ebola SitRep, 23 July 2026).^[2]
• Host community IPC (Mar–Jul 2026 observed): 473,368 people in Phase 3+ (32% of 1.5 million analysed); 41,259 in Phase 4. Projection for Aug 2026–Feb 2027: 352,285 Phase 3+ (24%) with Phase 4 projected to zero — though the analysed population denominator shifted significantly between analyses, making percentage comparisons more reliable than absolute figures.^[6]
• FEWS NET projects 2.5–2.99 million people in need of food assistance June 2026–January 2027, with needs remaining high among refugees and poor households in Karamoja.^[7]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP, Uganda's structural context includes 42% of 49.5 million people in multidimensional poverty, 45% of Karamoja households acutely food insecure, and social protection covering only 3.1% of the population.^[8]

Trend Indicators:

• Worsening. Poor food consumption among refugees tripled from 4.8% (2024) to 15.1% (June–July 2025 FSNA), a measurable dietary quality deterioration confirmed across multiple sources.^[5]
• Domestic conflict significantly reduced in July 2026: 5 ACLED events, 3 fatalities — down 81% and 77% respectively from June 2026 (27 events, 13 fatalities), and well below the 13-month average of 29 events/16 fatalities monthly. This does not offset refugee-origin-country instability.^[9]
• Food prices volatile as of May 2026: leafy vegetables +139% m/m; fresh cassava +15% m/m; fresh milk +14% m/m; beans -13% m/m; charcoal -18% m/m.^[10]
• A 7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate at distribution points — approximately 152,000 individuals per cycle — remains the sole proxy food-access indicator, with cause (absence, exclusion error, seasonal movement) undiagnosed.^[11]
• 3% of 11,245 observed movers in a 10-day May 2026 IOM flow monitoring window explicitly crossed the DRC–Uganda border to collect aid — a proxy indicator of cross-border food-assistance-seeking pressure to monitor.^[12]

WFP Operations:

• As of September 2025 (per WFP Country Brief, October 2025): WFP reached 909,666 people, distributing 3,605 mt of in-kind food and USD 3.6 million in CBTs.^[1] Previously (August 2025): 886,807 people, 2,122 mt, USD 1.7M CBT. Previously (July 2025): 900,450 people, 2,246 mt, USD 3.4M CBT.^[13][14]
• Ration tiers remain locked at 60% (newly arrived), 40% (most vulnerable), 22% (less vulnerable) of full entitlement — unchanged across July–September 2025 Country Briefs. No funded pathway to full entitlement exists under current resourcing.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2.3 million total beneficiaries annually; SO1 achieved 203% beneficiary achievement rate at 81% funding rate; SO3 (MAM treatment) reached 52% beneficiary achievement rate at 92% funding rate, with a May 2025 prioritisation exercise removing approximately one million refugees from assistance.^[15]
• CBT digitisation progressing: as of September 2025, delivery split was 46% agency banking, 35% cash-in-hand, 19% mobile money — 35% cash-in-hand dependency signals residual last-mile constraints.^[1]
• Nutrition recovery rates of 94.3% in settlements and 80% in transit/reception centres (both exceeding Sphere standards, September 2025) provide defensible evidence of operational effectiveness for donor advocacy.^[1]
• Old-age pension pilot under the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development disbursed USD 14,938 to 296 refugees aged 80+ at launch — an emerging government partnership model under the 2026–2030 CSP's enabling-systems ambition.^[1][8]

Funding Outlook:

• Most recent six-month NFR: USD 46.1 million (October 2025–March 2026) against a cumulative CSP gap of approximately USD 620 million.^[1] No 2026 NFR update is present in the substrate — this is a confirmed information gap.
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP secured 88% of annual resources against needs-based plan; total expenditure USD 120.27 million against USD 153.11 million available. SO6 (enabling systems) funded at only 30% of needs-based plan.^[15]
• The 2026–2030 CSP (total cost USD 784.7 million over the plan window, 2.67 million beneficiaries planned) explicitly acknowledges the 2025 aid-sector funding crisis is expected to exacerbate vulnerability and raise operational costs, with WFP committing to multi-year diversified financing — but the mechanism for bridging the immediate gap is unspecified.^[8]
• WFP's six-month regional Ebola response requirement is USD 101 million (DRC alone: USD 76 million); no Uganda-specific Ebola response allocation is identified in the substrate.^[2]
• UNHCR is funded at only 31% as of June 2026 globally — a systemic constraint on the joint WFP–UNHCR refugee response architecture in Uganda.^[16]

In The News

• Ebola Outbreak Spreads into Uganda, PHEIC Declared (FEWS NET): The Bundibugyo strain Ebola outbreak has crossed from eastern DRC into Uganda, with a WHO PHEIC declaration raising the likelihood of border restrictions and humanitarian logistics disruption directly affecting WFP's supply corridor and Entebbe staging hub.^[2]
• Washington Agreement Will Not Produce De-escalation in Eastern DRC (Actualité.cd): A leading analyst's assessment of durable DRC–Rwanda hostilities signals continued mass displacement from WFP's primary refugee origin country, sustaining caseload pressure on Uganda's 13 settlements while funding remains structurally insufficient.^[4]
• Uganda and Morocco Troops Approved for Gaza Stabilisation Force (Dawn): Israel's approval of a small ISF contingent including Ugandan personnel is a reputational and political signal; if operationalised, it could affect Uganda's diplomatic positioning with humanitarian donors, though direct operational impact on WFP Uganda remains unquantified at this stage.^[17]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Structural funding shortfall driving sub-minimum ration delivery	USD 620M cumulative CSP gap; current NFR USD 46.1M (Oct 2025–Mar 2026) unconfirmed as met. Ration tiers at 22–60% of entitlement for 1.9M refugees; no funded pathway to full ration exists.	1. Emergency donor advocacy targeting IPC Phase 4 classification of refugee caseload. 2. Scenario-based ration planning for further cuts below 22% floor.	Programme, Partnerships, Resource Mobilisation	Regional Bureau, HQ Donor Relations	WFP Uganda Country Brief Sep 2025 (doc_id: 4183090); WFP Ebola SitRep 23 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4222896)	High
Strategic	Nearly 2 million refugees at IPC Phase 4 with no ration recovery pathway	65% of refugee households food insecure (FSNA Jun–Jul 2025); poor food consumption tripled to 15.1%. IPC Phase 4 classification with structurally insufficient ration levels is a life-safety threshold breach, not a transitional gap.	1. Prioritise emergency donor communications explicitly referencing IPC Phase 4 status. 2. Integrate settlement-level nutrition surveillance into distribution reporting to detect MAM/SAM escalation.	Programme (Nutrition, GFA), Monitoring	HQ Nutrition, UNHCR, WHO	WFP Ebola SitRep 23 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4222896); UNHCR Q4 2025 Indicators Tracking Matrix (doc_id: 4216439)	High
Operational	Ebola/BVD outbreak disrupting DRC–Uganda border corridor and Entebbe staging hub	EVD-linked border closures affect all four DRC neighbours including Uganda. Entebbe staging hub dispatching 35 trucks (363 mt road) and 27 C-130 rotations (296 mt air) for DRC operations — any closure strands pipeline movements.	1. Secure humanitarian corridor exemptions for food, nutrition supplies, and staff movement with border authorities. 2. Develop contingency air-only routing for supply continuity if road crossings close.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Security	WFP Logistics, UNHAS, WHO, OCHA	WFP Ebola SitRep 23 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4222896); DRC Markets Analysis Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4223071)	High
Strategic	Escalation in refugee origin countries driving new arrivals beyond settlement capacity	South Sudan: 420,800+ newly displaced Jan–May 2026; DRC: active M23/ADF conflict with analyst-assessed durable hostilities. New influxes deepen per-capita food shortfall at already sub-minimum ration levels across 13 settlements.	1. Sustain cross-border situational awareness with WFP Juba, Kinshasa, Bujumbura. 2. Develop contingency influx scenarios for all 13 settlements with pre-approved ration adjustment triggers.	Programme, Emergency Preparedness	Regional Bureau ESA, WFP South Sudan/DRC COs	WFP Uganda CB Sep 2025 (doc_id: 4183090); UNICEF South Sudan SitRep May 2026 (doc_id: 4223072)	High
Operational	Severe seasonal rainfall deficit compounding Karamoja food insecurity	96 of 167 districts below 75% of normal rainfall (dekad to 1 Jul 2026); NDVI below normal in 21 districts confirming agricultural stress. Government activated Shs 45B emergency distribution for 314,000 Karamoja households.	1. Activate Anticipatory Action framework for pre-positioning ahead of lean season. 2. Coordinate with government emergency response to avoid duplication and identify WFP coverage gaps.	Programme (GFA, Nutrition), Logistics	WFP VAM, MoALFC, FAO, OPM	WFP VAM Climate Data (dekad to 2026-07-01); Uganda news (ref://57)	Medium
Operational	7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate masking undiagnosed access failure	~152,000 individuals per cycle not receiving scheduled assistance; cause (exclusion error, absence, seasonal movement) unspecified. Sole proxy food-access indicator provides no corrective basis.	1. Commission root-cause disaggregation of no-show rate distinguishing exclusion errors from voluntary absence. 2. Cross-reference with UNHCR refugee registry to identify systematic exclusion patterns.	M&E, Programme, Protection	UNHCR, WFP M&E Unit	UNHCR Uganda Refugee Overview Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)	Medium
Financial	Global aid funding contraction undermining multi-year CSP resourcing	UNHCR at 31% funding globally (Jun 2026); WFP globally received 41% of required funding in 2025 (USD 6.5B of implied ~USD 15.9B need); SO6 (enabling systems) funded at 30% of needs-based plan in 2025 ACR. 2026–2030 CSP total cost USD 784.7M at risk.	1. Diversify donor base with multi-year financing agreements as outlined in 2026–2030 CSP strategy. 2. Prioritise life-saving SO1 in any resource-allocation triage; protect nutrition commodity pipeline.	Resource Mobilisation, Partnerships	RB ESA, HQ Partnerships, WFP Executive Board	2025 ACR (UGA); 2026–2030 CSP (UGA); UNHCR 75th Anniversary (ref://28)	High
Operational	CBT last-mile financial access constraints	35% cash-in-hand dependency as of September 2025 signals persistent last-mile gaps despite digitisation progress (46% agency banking, 19% mobile money). Cash-in-hand carries higher operational cost and fiduciary risk.	1. Accelerate mobile money and agency banking rollout in underserved settlements. 2. Set quarterly targets for cash-in-hand reduction with progress tracking in Country Brief.	Programme (CBT), Finance	WFP Financial Service Providers, Telecom partners	WFP Uganda CB Sep 2025 (doc_id: 4183090)	Low

Note: More than 202 documents were reviewed covering the period July 2025–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 27 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Refugee caseload denominator: The WFP Country Brief series cites "more than 1.8 million" (August 2025 CB) vs "more than 1.9 million" (July and September 2025 CBs) — likely reflecting real caseload growth across sequential months; the September 2025 CB figure (1.9 million) is adopted as the most recent. The IPC host-community analysis (Mar–Jul 2026) analysed only 1,496,117 people, a significantly smaller denominator than the 1,927,593 used in the prior analysis (Jul 2025) — absolute Phase 3+ comparisons between these two analyses (-49% absolute) are therefore unreliable; percentage comparisons (32% vs prior period %) are the defensible metric. Ebola deaths: news sources (Actualité.cd, ref://19) cite 1,000+ deaths and 2,473 cases as of 22 July 2026; the WFP Ebola SitRep (23 July 2026, doc_id: 4222896) is adopted as the authoritative operational source for Uganda-relevant figures given its WFP provenance, though it does not provide Uganda-specific case/death disaggregation from the DRC total.

Footnotes

1. WFP Uganda Country Brief, September 2025 — World Food Programme, October 2025 (doc_id: 4183090)
2. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak — External Situation Report, 23 July 2026 — World Food Programme, July 2026 (doc_id: 4222896)
3. WFP VAM Climate/Rainfall Data, dekad to 2026-07-01 — WFP VAM, July 2026
4. Actualité.cd — Bob Kabamba assessment, 25 July 2026 (ref://3)
5. UNHCR Impact of Underfunding Indicators Tracking Matrix — Uganda Q4 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216439)
6. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, Uganda, April 2026 (period Mar–Jul 2026) — IPC, 2026
7. Uganda Food Security Outlook June 2026–January 2027 — FEWS NET, 13 July 2026 (doc_id: 4221071)
8. WFP Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — World Food Programme, 2026
9. ACLED Conflict Data, Uganda, July 2026 — ACLED via HDX, 2026
10. WFP VAM Food Price Monitoring, Uganda, May 2026 — WFP VAM via HDX, 2026
11. Uganda Overview of Refugees and Asylum-Seekers as of 30 June 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)
12. Uganda Flow Monitoring — Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak, 15–24 May 2026 — IOM, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213918)
13. WFP Uganda Country Brief, August 2025 — World Food Programme, September 2025 (doc_id: 4177983)
14. WFP Uganda Country Brief, July 2025 — World Food Programme, August 2025 (doc_id: 4172603)
15. WFP Uganda Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025
16. UNHCR 75th Anniversary of the 1951 Refugee Convention — UNHCR, 24 July 2026 (ref://28)
17. Dawn — Uganda and Morocco troops approved for Gaza ISF, 27 July 2026 (ref://12)