Zambia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Zambia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	N/A — no WFP-specific NFR figure available in current substrate
Current Reach:	Previously (2025 ACR): 2,481,312 total unique beneficiaries; no current SitRep figure available
Population IPC 3+:	1,203,693 in IPC Phase 3+ (12% of analysed pop., Aug 2025 analysis; ⚠ 11 months old)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Zambia's food security position has structurally improved from its 2024 El Niño nadir but remains fragile. Previously (2025 ACR): IPC analysis projected 1.7 million in crisis-level food insecurity, driven by the 2023/24 El Niño drought across 84 districts.^[1] The most recent IPC quantification (Aug 2025 analysis, ⚠ 11 months old) recorded 1,203,693 in Phase 3+ — a 76% reduction in absolute terms from the prior cycle, though the analysed population also contracted sharply (17.3M → 10.1M), making percentage comparison more reliable than headline counts.^[2]
• Two consecutive good rainfall seasons have driven the improvement, but a news intelligence assessment (3 July 2026) warns that Zambia's structural exposure — dependence on imported fertiliser, fuel, and urban food commodities — creates acute vulnerability to Gulf supply chain disruptions and a forecast El Niño return.^[3] The Hong Kong Observatory has flagged a potentially record-breaking "super strong" El Niño developing this summer and persisting into early 2027, a material forward risk for southern African food systems.^[4]
• Zambia hosts over 100,000 refugees, primarily from DRC, concentrated in food-insecure settlements.^[1] Under the 2023–2028 CSP, WFP provides food and cash-based transfers (USD 0.39/person/day or 2,100 kcal food ration) to refugees and crisis-affected populations.^[5]
• Conflict remains low-intensity domestically: ACLED records 5 events and 2 fatalities in June 2026, broadly in line with the 12-month average of 4 events/month.^[2]

Vulnerability Scale:

• Previously (Aug 2025 IPC, ⚠ 11 months old): 1,203,693 people in Phase 3+ Crisis; Phase 4 Emergency: zero. Current conditions are likely improved given two consecutive good harvests, but no updated IPC analysis is available.^[2]
• Seasonal rainfall deficits are emerging in 17 of 103 districts — Central, Copperbelt, and Eastern provinces worst affected (e.g. Masaiti at 37% of seasonal normal). Vegetation indices remain near-normal, suggesting crops not yet impacted; situation is at watch level.^[2] All 46 river flood gauges are within normal range as of late June 2026.^[2]
• FEWS NET (April 2026) identifies flood and landslide hazards across Zambia as carrying high probability of localised displacement requiring emergency food assistance — no Zambia-specific displacement figures are quantified.^[6]
• Previously (2025 ACR): refugee rations constrained to 70% of entitlement due to funding shortfalls; pipeline pressures delayed distributions; poor road access limited coverage.^[1]
• Stunting affects 35% of children under 5 — among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa — and micronutrient deficiencies affect nearly a third of children under 2, establishing a chronic nutrition baseline that acute shocks rapidly worsen.^[5]

Trend Indicators:

• Improving: IPC Phase 3+ caseload down approximately 76% between analytical cycles (Jul 2024 → Aug 2025); inflation fell from 16.7% to 11.2% in 2025; smallholder sales exceeded USD 3.8 million; minimum acceptable diet for children rose to 71.2% (previously per 2025 ACR).^[1]
• Deteriorating / Watch: Seasonal rainfall deficit in 17 districts (Central, Copperbelt, Eastern) — watch-level, not yet crop-impactful.^[2] El Niño formation risk is the primary forward food security threat for the 2026/27 agricultural season.^[4] Trans-Caprivi Highway (B8) — Zambia's key logistics corridor linking to Walvis Bay — carries active cholera and cVDPV2 risks in the Angola-Namibia segment; border health measures could interrupt commodity movement.^[7]
• Stable: Low domestic conflict environment.^[2]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2,481,312 total unique beneficiaries and spent USD 35.50 million against an implementation plan of USD 27.95 million (127% expenditure achievement), driven by carry-over 2024 drought response and new 2025 contributions valid only within the year.^[1]
• SO1 (crisis response) achieved 120% beneficiary achievement rate at 139.9% expenditure rate; SO3 (resilience/smallholder) reached 32.3% beneficiary achievement rate at 127.3% expenditure — the gap reflects smallholder aggregation support reaching 25,983 of a planned 40,000 farmers.^[1] SO2 (nutrition/root causes) and SO5 (logistics services) each underperformed at approximately 45–50% beneficiary achievement and expenditure rates, the former due to phased multi-year EU/KfW contributions, the latter due to lower-than-anticipated partner demand.^[1]
• Under the 2023–2028 CSP, Home-Grown School Meals expanded to 4.6 million learners; index-based livestock/mortality insurance covered over 1 million people with USD 200 million sum insured.^[1]
• No current WFP SitRep or Country Brief figures are available in this substrate — all operations figures above are from the 2025 ACR and should be treated as the prior-year baseline, not current operational status.

Funding Outlook:

• Previously (2025 ACR): CSP funding gap stood at 11.4%; WFP over-executed its implementation plan by 27% due to end-loaded 2025-only contributions (Finland, France, Japan, China, Russia, Ireland, WHO), creating a structural sustainability risk as those contributions do not roll over.^[1]
• UNICEF health sector funding in Zambia carries a 93% gap (USD 3.8 million shortfall as of end-December 2025) — the single Zambia-specific funding figure in current regional documentation. This directly undermines joint nutrition and health programming complementary to WFP SO2 interventions.^[7]
• The 2023–2028 CSP totals USD 98.5 million across the plan window; refugee response (SO1) and resilience building (SO3) are the largest budget lines at USD 30.0M and USD 38.3M respectively.^[5] No Zambia-specific WFP funding runway, pipeline break, or donor contribution data are present in the current substrate.
• An emerging risk: the news intelligence item on Kenya (3 July 2026) flags Strait of Hormuz disruptions cutting ~26% of fertiliser imports and diesel prices up 47% since February 2026.^[3] Zambia shares this structural import dependency; if confirmed for Zambia, CBT purchasing power and smallholder input costs would face additional pressure in the 2026/27 planting season.

In The News

• Zambia's structural food security fragility and El Niño exposure (news): Despite IPC caseload falling from 5.6M to 1.7M on two consecutive good harvests, dependence on imported fertiliser and fuel creates acute exposure to Gulf supply disruptions and a returning El Niño — a direct planning signal for WFP Zambia's 2026/27 contingency budgeting.^[8]
• M23/AFC drone strikes in Sud-Kivu displace civilians toward Baraka (Radio Okapi): Expanding M23 conflict front in DRC's Sud-Kivu — Zambia's primary refugee source — risks accelerating new DRC refugee inflows into Zambia settlements already served at 70% ration levels, compounding SO1 caseload pressure.^[9]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Trans-Caprivi Highway (B8) corridor disruption	Active cholera and genetically confirmed cVDPV2 along the B8 (Walvis Bay → Zambia → Zimbabwe → DRC) could trigger border health measures interrupting WFP commodity movement to and through Zambia within 30 days.	1. Engage Namibia's Africa Continental Task Force for Cholera Elimination (UNICEF/WHO/Africa CDC) to advocate for corridor access. 2. Map alternative routing via Tanzania–Malawi–Mozambique–Zambia corridor and pre-identify surge fleet options with RBJ/RBN.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Programme	WFP Regional Bureau ESA (RBJ/RBN); UNICEF ESAR; WHO Africa	UNICEF ESAR Humanitarian SitRep No.2, end-Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325); FEWS NET Global Weather Hazards Summary, Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4206560)	High
Strategic	El Niño return threatening 2026/27 agricultural season	Hong Kong Observatory projects a "super strong" El Niño persisting into early 2027. Zambia's structural dependence on imported fertiliser and fuel amplifies food security downside risk; two good seasons have reduced buffers and may create donor complacency.	1. Commission scenario-based contingency planning against IPC Phase 3+ caseload rebound to 2024 levels. 2. Engage African Risk Capacity and climate finance mechanisms now to pre-position anticipatory funding before El Niño confirmation.	Programme, VAM, Supply Chain	WFP HQ Climate; African Risk Capacity; FEWS NET	News intelligence (ref://10), 3 Jul 2026; SCMP (ref://1) on El Niño formation	High
Operational	Flood/landslide displacement generating unplanned emergency food assistance	FEWS NET (Apr 2026) flags high-probability localised displacement across Zambia from flood/landslide events within 60 days. Seasonal rainfall deficit in 17 districts (Masaiti: 37% of normal) adds watch-level agricultural stress; unplanned emergency costs are unquantified.	1. Activate regional logistics pre-positioning through RBJ/RBN for the Tanzania–Malawi–Mozambique–Zambia corridor. 2. Establish clear triggers (displacement thresholds) for emergency scale-up within existing SO1 contingency framework.	Logistics, Emergency Response, Programme	WFP RBJ/RBN; DMMU (Zambia); OCHA	FEWS NET Global Weather Hazards Summary, Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4206560); WFP VAM climate data, dekad to 21 Jun 2026	Medium
Financial	UNICEF health funding gap undermining joint nutrition programming	Zambia's UNICEF health sector carries a 93% gap (USD 3.8M shortfall, end-Dec 2025). Collapse of complementary health services weakens WFP SO2 nutrition outcomes, particularly for pregnant/lactating women and children under 5.	1. Monitor UNICEF ESAR funding mobilisation as leading indicator for joint programming viability. 2. Assess eligibility for CERF rapid-response allocation covering Zambia WFP nutrition components.	Programme (Nutrition), Partnerships	UNICEF; WHO; CERF	UNICEF ESAR Humanitarian SitRep No.2, end-Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)	Medium
Strategic	Escalating DRC conflict increasing refugee caseload	M23/AFC expansion in Sud-Kivu (3 Jul 2026 drone strikes, mass displacement toward Baraka) risks accelerating DRC refugee flows into Zambia. Zambia already hosts 100,000+ refugees served at 70% ration levels due to funding constraints; any inflow surge will breach current SO1 capacity without additional resources.	1. Coordinate with UNHCR on contingency caseload projections for new DRC arrivals. 2. Initiate targeted donor outreach to pre-empt a refugee ration cut below 70% in the event of a caseload spike.	Programme (SO1), Partnerships, Supply Chain	UNHCR; WFP RBJ; Donors	Radio Okapi, 4 Jul 2026 (ref://2); 2025 ACR — WFP Zambia	High
Financial	Imported fertiliser/fuel cost escalation eroding CBT purchasing power and smallholder viability	Gulf supply chain disruptions (Strait of Hormuz) are cutting fertiliser imports and driving diesel price increases regionally. If the pattern mirrors Kenya's documented exposure (−26% fertiliser volume, +47% diesel since Feb 2026), Zambia's CBT transfer values and smallholder input costs face compounding pressure ahead of the 2026/27 planting window.	1. Conduct urgent VAM market monitoring to confirm whether Zambia fertiliser/fuel price dynamics mirror the Kenya trajectory. 2. Prepare transfer value adjustment mechanism per CSP CBT protocol if purchasing power erosion exceeds threshold.	VAM, Programme, Supply Chain	WFP VAM; World Bank; FAO	News intelligence (ref://9), 3 Jul 2026; 2025 ACR — WFP Zambia	Medium
Operational	IPC data gap creating targeting and contingency planning blind spot	The most recent IPC analysis is 11 months old (Aug 2025). No updated Zambia IPC classification exists in the current substrate, and WFP operations data (SitReps, Country Briefs) is entirely absent from the current substrate. This gap prevents evidence-based caseload adjustment as El Niño risk materialises.	1. Advocate for an accelerated IPC update for Zambia, targeting completion before the 2026/27 lean season onset. 2. Commission a WFP VAM rapid food security assessment in the 17 rainfall-deficit districts as an interim triangulation measure.	VAM, Programme, Donor Relations	WFP VAM; FAO; IPC Global Support Unit	IPC Acute Food Insecurity data, Aug 2025 analysis; operational gaps per ReliefWeb analysis (doc_id: 4219325)	Medium

Note: More than 30 documents were reviewed from the period July 2025–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 6 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The 2025 ACR cites IPC-projected 1.7 million in crisis-level food insecurity as the 2025 operational baseline, while the formal IPC Acute Food Insecurity quantification (Aug 2025 analysis) records 1,203,693 in Phase 3+; the difference likely reflects distinct analytical populations (ACR references projection over 84 districts; IPC formal analysis covers 10,073,915 people) — both figures are retained with their respective denominators, and neither should be cited interchangeably as the headline caseload without the denominator qualifier.

Footnotes

1. WFP Zambia Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — WFP, 2025
2. Quantitative Data Context: ACLED, IPC, WFP VAM, GDACS, Flood Hub — HDX/WFP, data to Jun/Aug 2025–Jun 2026
3. Zambia food security and El Niño exposure — news intelligence (ref://10), 3 Jul 2026
4. Hong Kong Observatory El Niño warning — SCMP Asia (ref://1)
5. WFP Zambia Country Strategic Plan 2023–2028 — WFP, 2023 (doc_id: internal CSP document)
6. Global Weather Hazards Summary, April 09–15, 2026 — FEWS NET, Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4206560)
7. UNICEF Eastern and Southern Africa Region Humanitarian Situation Report No.2 (End of Year), 31 December 2025 — UNICEF, Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4219325)
8. News intelligence item on Zambia structural fragility — ref://10, 3 Jul 2026
9. Radio Okapi, M23/AFC drone strikes Sud-Kivu — ref://2, 4 Jul 2026