Zambia Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Zambia 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	CSP-level 11.4% funding gap (2023–2028 plan); no current pipeline figure available
Current Reach:	Previously (2025 ACR): 2,481,312 unique beneficiaries — no current SitRep figure in corpus
Population IPC 3+:	As of Aug 2025 analysis (Apr–Sep 2025): 1.20M in IPC Phase 3+ (12% of 10.1M analysed) — 11 months old; caution advised

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Zambia faces a compound risk environment entering Q3 2026: a strengthening El Niño (81% probability of "very strong" event, peaking Oct–Dec 2026 per US Climate Prediction Centre)^[1] is converging with a severe seasonal rainfall deficit — 26 of 103 districts recorded below 75% of normal rainfall through July 2026, worst in Masaiti at 52% of normal (Copperbelt/Muchinga) — though river flood gauges remain normal across all 46 monitored sites as of the analysis date.^[2]
• Under the 2023–2028 CSP, WFP's operational footprint spans crisis response (refugees and climate-shocked populations), nutrition, smallholder resilience, government capacity strengthening, and on-demand logistics services. The CSP was designed to transition from relief toward resilience and government-system handover; the emerging El Niño threatens to reverse this trajectory and force emergency response scale-up.^[3]
• A substantive policy analysis identifies Zambia's 2025 gold rush as a potential extremist financing vector, with regional precedent from ISM in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado; this warrants monitoring for subnational security spillover, though current ACLED data show zero conflict events and zero fatalities in July 2026 (down from 6 events, 3 fatalities in June 2026).^[4]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The most recent IPC analysis (August 2025, covering April–September 2025) placed 1.20 million people in IPC Phase 3+ (12% of 10.1 million analysed). ⚠ This analysis is 11 months old and predates both the current El Niño intensification and the kwacha depreciation — the actual current caseload is likely higher.^[5]
• Zambia hosts over 100,000 refugees, primarily from DRC, concentrated in food-insecure settlements; the 2023–2028 CSP notes that refugee rations were constrained to 70% in 2025 due to funding shortfalls.^[3]
• Structural vulnerability is acute: 77% rural poverty, 35% stunting among children under 5, and youth unemployment near 52% per the CSP baseline.^[3]

Trend Indicators:

• El Niño escalation: ECMWF and WMO both forecast rapid intensification to a strong El Niño between July–September 2026, with the CPC assigning 97% probability of persistence into early spring 2027 — a direct drought/flood risk for Zambia's rain-fed agriculture and WFP food system programming.^[1] A joint WFP-FAO $202 million anticipatory appeal covering 22 high-risk countries — including neighbouring Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe — is actively mobilising; Zambia is not named but the regional pressure is immediate.^[6]
• Currency pressure: The Zambian kwacha declined nearly 5% since the onset of Middle East conflict (ACAPS, July 2026), eroding transfer value for cash-based interventions and raising local procurement costs. No WFP pipeline or transfer-value review data are available to quantify exposure.^[7]
• Logistics corridor risk: The Trans-Caprivi Highway (B8), linking Walvis Bay to Zambia, Zimbabwe, and DRC, is under disease pressure — active cholera in Kunene/Grootfontein and genetically confirmed shared cVDPV2 poliovirus strains (UNICEF ESAR, December 2025). Any border restriction on this corridor would simultaneously disrupt supply chains serving all three countries.^[8]
• Conflict low but watch DRC spillover: Zambia's own conflict indicators are minimal (ACLED). However, the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in DRC/Uganda — with refugee flows as primary transmission vectors — poses an indirect exposure risk; Zambia's inclusion in the UNICEF-identified 10 high-risk preparedness countries is unconfirmed and requires verification.^[9]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2,481,312 unique beneficiaries, spending USD 35.50 million against a USD 27.95 million implementation plan (127% expenditure achievement), driven by carry-over drought response and single-year contributions from Finland, France, Japan, China, Russia, Ireland, and WHO.^[10]
• Previously (2025 ACR) by Strategic Outcome: SO1 (crisis response) achieved 120% beneficiary-achievement rate at 140% expenditure rate, driven by 2024 drought carry-over. SO2 (nutrition/root causes) reached 45% beneficiary-achievement rate at 50% expenditure rate, due to multi-year EU/KfW phasing. SO3 (resilience/smallholders) achieved 32% beneficiary-achievement rate at 127% expenditure rate — reaching 25,983 of 40,000 targeted farmers despite overall overspend. SO4 (capacity strengthening) exceeded plan at 162% expenditure rate due to single-year contributions requiring accelerated implementation. SO5 (logistics services) underperformed at 50% expenditure rate reflecting below-anticipated partner demand.^[10]
• Critical intelligence gap: Zero WFP primary operational documents for Zambia are present in the 36-document corpus. Current beneficiary reach, pipeline status, funding runway, and contingency stock levels are entirely uncharacterised for Q2/Q3 2026 — a decision-critical gap given compounding hazards.
• Under the 2023–2028 CSP, SO1 provides unconditional food and CBT (USD 0.39/person/day for 2,100 kcal, targeting primarily DRC/Angola refugees). SO3 includes the Maano Virtual Farmers Market, index-based livestock insurance, and regenerative agriculture — all at risk if El Niño scale-up forces emergency reprogramming.^[3]

Funding Outlook:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP Zambia's CSP carries an 11.4% funding gap at the plan level; 2025 over-expenditure (127%) was driven by single-year contributions unlikely to recur at the same scale in 2026.^[10]
• The global donor funding environment has deteriorated sharply since 2024 (ALNAP, cited in ACAPS July 2026), compressing the resource envelope for emergency response precisely when compound El Niño-driven shocks are peaking.^[7] The USAID dismantlement has materially degraded the broader humanitarian ecosystem in the region, reducing complementary partner capacity.^[11]
• The Start Fund Crisis Anticipation window is confirmed operational (South Sudan Alert 1098 successfully funded) and is accessible for Zambia flood anticipation if early warning thresholds are met.^[12]
• No Zambia-specific funding runway, pipeline break, or donor contribution data are available for 2026.

In The News

• Record El Niño forecast for 2026 (Dawn, Pakistan): ECMWF and CPC converge on an extreme El Niño event peaking Oct–Dec 2026, with southern/eastern Africa facing drier-than-normal conditions — a direct threat to Zambia's rain-fed agriculture and WFP resilience programming.^[1]
• WFP-FAO $202M anticipatory appeal for 22 countries (news): Joint anticipatory funding mobilisation for El Niño-affected countries, covering Zambia's neighbours (Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe); Zambia CO should assess whether to seek inclusion or align contingency planning to the same anticipatory framework.^[6]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Flood-Driven Displacement & Emergency Food Gap	El Niño (81% probability "very strong", peaking Oct–Dec 2026) combined with existing rainfall deficits in 26 districts creates high likelihood of localized displacement requiring emergency food assistance; no WFP contingency stock data available	1. Verify contingency stock levels with CO immediately. 2. Engage RBJ/RBN for regional pre-positioning along Tanzania–Malawi–Mozambique–Zambia corridor. 3. Assess Start Fund anticipation window eligibility	Supply Chain, Programme	RBJ/RBN, FEWS NET, DMMU	FEWS NET Global Weather Hazards Summary Apr 2026 (doc_id: 4206560); GDACS/Flood Hub Jul 2026; CPC via Dawn Jul 2026	High
Financial	Kwacha Depreciation Eroding CBT Value	Kwacha down nearly 5% since Middle East conflict onset; ongoing El Niño and global market pressures risk further depreciation, reducing transfer value for CBT-assisted refugees and crisis-affected populations	1. Commission immediate transfer-value review and procurement cost assessment. 2. Flag to Regional Finance for hedging or reprogramming consideration. 3. Strengthen market monitoring frequency	Programme (CBT), Finance	Regional Finance, WFP VAM	ACAPS Thematic Report 10 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220874)	Medium
Operational	Trans-Caprivi Corridor Disease Disruption	Active cholera and genetically confirmed cVDPV2 along B8 highway (Walvis Bay–Zambia–Zimbabwe–DRC) could trigger border restrictions interrupting WFP supply chains serving multiple countries simultaneously	1. Map alternative routing options not dependent solely on B8. 2. Formally engage WFP-UNICEF-WHO coordination on Angola-Namibia nexus. 3. Join Namibia's Africa Continental Task Force for Cholera Elimination platform	Logistics, Supply Chain	UNICEF, WHO, Africa CDC, RBJ	UNICEF ESAR Humanitarian SitRep No.2 Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)	High
Strategic	Structural Donor Funding Decline	Global donor funding down sharply since 2024; USAID dismantlement reduces complementary partner capacity; 2025 over-expenditure driven by single-year contributions unlikely to recur; 11.4% CSP funding gap at baseline	1. Pre-position donor engagement before any El Niño emergency declaration. 2. Explore Start Fund Crisis Anticipation window. 3. Prioritise climate financing streams and IFI engagement identified in CSP partnership plan	Resource Mobilisation, Programme	RBJ, Donors, Start Network	ACAPS Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220874); ALNAP Jul 2025 via ACAPS; WFP ACR 2025; CSP 2023–2028	High
Strategic	Ebola Preparedness Exposure via Regional Mobility	Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in DRC/Uganda uses refugee flows as primary transmission vector; Zambia's inclusion in UNICEF's 10 high-risk countries is unconfirmed; EVD preparedness funding 63% unfunded (IOM: USD 35M gap of USD 55.8M)	1. Verify with UNICEF whether Zambia is on the 10-country preparedness list. 2. Integrate WFP logistics corridor data into IOM PoE Technical Working Group EVD mobility mapping. 3. Align WFP posture with regional risk management framework	Programme, Logistics, Staff Safety	UNICEF, IOM, WHO	UNICEF EVD Flash Update No.1 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220467); IOM SitRep No.8 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220927)	Medium
Financial	Emergency Scale-Up in Constrained Funding Environment	Any flood-triggered emergency response scale-up would occur with no confirmed pipeline data, in a globally constrained funding environment, with single-year 2025 contributions exhausted	1. Establish pipeline break threshold and activate donor alert protocol. 2. Develop emergency reprogramming decision tree for SO3/SO4 activities as first offsets. 3. Engage UNCERF/ECHO for emergency bridge financing	Finance, Programme	RBJ, UNCERF, ECHO, Start Network	WFP ACR 2025; Start Fund Monthly Risk Bulletin Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4219474)	Medium
Operational	Intelligence Gap on Current WFP Operations	Zero WFP primary operational documents for Zambia in the analysis corpus — pipeline status, contingency stocks, current reach, and funding runway are entirely uncharacterised for Q2/Q3 2026	1. CO to provide immediate pipeline and stock update to Regional Bureau. 2. Establish regular SitRep cadence given compound hazard environment. 3. Prioritise VAM market monitoring resumption	All Functions	CO, RBJ	Aggregator metadata: wfp_primary_doc_ids empty array; analysis date Jul 2026	High

Note: More than 36 documents were reviewed from April 2025 to July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 13 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The IPC August 2025 analysis places 1.20 million people in Phase 3+ (12% of 10.1 million analysed), a 76% reduction in absolute terms from the July 2024 figure of 4.95 million — however, the analysed population changed significantly between rounds (17.3M → 10.1M), making the absolute comparison unreliable; the percentage metric (12%) is the more defensible figure, and the analysis is 11 months old and predates the current El Niño intensification, meaning current conditions are likely worse than the Phase 3+ figure suggests.

Footnotes

1. Dawn (Pakistan) / ECMWF via CPC — "Record-breaking El Niño forecast for 2026," 7 Jul 2026 [ref://1]; "US CPC 81% probability very strong El Niño," 9 Jul 2026 [ref://4]
2. GDACS Natural Hazards / WFP-VAM Climate Anomalies / Flood Hub — Quantitative Data Feed, dekad to 1 Jul 2026
3. WFP Zambia Country Strategic Plan 2023–2028 (CSP)
4. Southern Africa Centre for Mediation and Extremism Prevention analysis, via news feed, 7 Jul 2026 [ref://28]; ACLED Zambia Jul 2026, Quantitative Data Feed
5. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, Zambia — Aug 2025 (covering Apr–Sep 2025), Quantitative Data Feed
6. News — Joint WFP-FAO $202M anticipatory appeal, 9 Jul 2026 [ref://17]
7. ACAPS Thematic Report: Global Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East — ACAPS, 10 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220874)
8. UNICEF Eastern and Southern Africa Region Humanitarian Situation Report No.2 (End of Year) — UNICEF, 31 Dec 2025 (doc_id: 4219325)
9. UNICEF Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak Humanitarian Flash Update No.1 — UNICEF, 6 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220467); Multi-Country Bundibugyo EVD Outbreak SitRep No.8 — IOM, 5 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220927)
10. WFP Zambia Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025
11. News — USAID dismantlement and partner capacity degradation in DRC Ebola response, 7 Jul 2026 [ref://18; ref://19]
12. Start Fund Monthly Risk Bulletin — Start Network, Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4219474)