Sudan Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Sudan 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 645.6M (Jun–Nov 2026); USD 183M received; gap USD 462.6M against full requirement / USD 277M against minimum floor
Current Reach:	~3.2M people assisted (May 2026); 680,000 of 771,000 targeted in famine-risk areas (88%)
Population IPC 3+:	5.6M (proj., Jun–Sep 2026, Phase 3+, 67% of analysed pop.); 19.5M observed (Feb–May 2026)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Sudan's conflict enters its third year with the SAF-RSF war driving simultaneous famine, displacement, and healthcare collapse. RSF control of Al Nahud (since May 2025) and intensifying drone strikes on El-Obeid — North Kordofan's strategic logistics hub — threaten to sever the corridor linking Darfur, Kordofan, and central Sudan.^[1] WFP's Country Director confirmed from field (July 2026) that registered beneficiaries in El-Obeid (~100,000) are sharing rations with unregistered displaced populations, a critical indicator that actual need materially exceeds registered caseloads.^[2]
• Food prices are accelerating across all commodities (June 2026 VAM data): vegetable oil +24% m/m, sorghum +22% m/m, beef +22% m/m, tomatoes +31% m/m, salt +42% m/m. The WFP Local Food Basket reached SDG 2,762/unit in May 2026 (+14% m/m, +49% y/y), while casual wages rose only 3.7% m/m — sharply compressing purchasing power for wage-dependent households.^[3] Fuel costs compound operational burden: petrol +83% y/y, diesel +144% y/y as of May 2026.^[1]
• Agricultural systems are structurally degraded. Al Jazirah state — historically responsible for 50% of national wheat production — has suffered total agricultural disruption per the FSC advocacy note (May 2026); fewer than 20% of agrifood MSMEs operate at capacity.^[4] Millet production in 2025 ran approximately 46% below the five-year average (FAO CFSAM, March 2026).^[5] The FSC estimates 10 million people outside current agricultural assistance reach, with a hyper-prioritised gap of 6.3 million.^[4]
• El Niño is generating a seasonal rainfall deficit: as of dekad to 1 July 2026, 47 of 171 districts recorded below 75% of normal rainfall, concentrated in Kassala, North Darfur, and Gedaref (worst: Sirba district at 43% of normal), with confirmed NDVI vegetation stress in 4 districts.

Vulnerability Scale:

• Observed (Feb–May 2026): 19.5M people at IPC Phase 3+ (41% of analysed population); 5M+ at IPC Phase 5 per WFP Country Brief.^[1] Note: UNICEF SitRep No. 43 cites ~135,000 at IPC Phase 5 — a significant discrepancy likely reflecting different analytical periods; the IPC quantitative feed records 134,808 at Phase 5 for the same observed window, corroborating the UNICEF figure. The operative lean-season estimate is the IPC projection: 5.6M at IPC Phase 3+ (67% of analysed population, Jun–Sep 2026 window). FEWS NET estimates 22.0–22.99M in need of humanitarian food assistance through September 2026.^[6]
• Kordofan represents the most critical access failure: only 1 of 81 mapped IDP sites had food assistance available (1% coverage, REACH, May 2026); 48% of West Kordofan sites had zero basic services.^[7] Food is the top-5 priority need at 93% of West Kordofan sites, 85% South Kordofan, 84% North Kordofan — yet Greater Kordofan accounts for less than 15% of WFP's total beneficiary caseload.^[6][7]
• GAM in Um Baru reached 52% and Kernoi 34% (December 2025 SMART surveys) — both above the Extremely Critical 30% threshold — with no updated surveys conducted since.^[6] Livestock herds are depleting and veterinary services have collapsed in conflict-affected areas.^[8] Women-headed households face 3x the food insecurity risk of male-headed households; 73.7% of women do not meet minimum dietary diversity thresholds.^[4]

Trend Indicators:

• ACLED data for July 2026 (partial month) records 20 events and 46 fatalities — sharply below the 13-month average of 237 events and 1,069 fatalities per month. This decline should be interpreted cautiously: it likely reflects data-reporting lag for the current month rather than a genuine security improvement, consistent with ongoing RSF drone strikes documented in field reporting from El-Obeid.^[2]
• The Farchana (Chad)–West Kordofan nutrition corridor dispatched 40 mt in May 2026 — the first movement after 9+ months of disruption — but sustained pipeline continuity remains unconfirmed.^[1] In Darfur, the Chad route (Adre–Geneina) is the most reliable import corridor; the South Sudan route at Al Na'am is seasonally impassable during the rainy season (mid-2026 onward) per the Mercy Corps supply chain assessment (July 2026).^[9]
• The US-Iran conflict and effective Strait of Hormuz closure (July 2026) is driving fertilizer prices up over 67% since May 2025 and fuel costs in Darfur more than double year-on-year per the Mercy Corps assessment — compounding Sudan's already-acute input-cost crisis during the critical planting window.^[9]

WFP Operations:

• WFP reached approximately 3.2M people in May 2026 — less than 20% of the 22.0–22.99M estimated in need — with rations cut to 70% in IPC Phase 5 areas and 50% in IPC Phase 4 areas as a direct funding-driven measure.^[1][6] In famine-risk areas, WFP reached 680,000 of 771,000 targeted (88%): El Fasher 39,000; Tawila 391,000; Beliel 147,000; Kadugli 36,000; Dilling 15,000; Um Durein 30,000.^[1]
• Emergency CBT scale-up in White Nile reached 391,000 people (339,000 via CBT rollout). However, CBT transfer values calibrated to prior Local Food Basket costings are now materially under-resourced given the +14% m/m basket cost surge; an immediate recalibration is required.^[3] Bankak mobile transfer (Bank of Khartoum) remains the sole functioning financial instrument in Darfur, carrying cash-conversion fees of up to 20% — eroding effective transfer value.^[9]
• The USD 5.5M 2026 LTC Telecoms requirement remains entirely unfunded as of June 2026, threatening connectivity for ~1,700 humanitarian responders across 67 sites in 7 hubs.^[10]
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 12.1M people (beneficiary achievement rate 117.8% of SO1 target) at a 97.9% expenditure rate, but transfer volumes were 300,000 mt against 1.1M mt planned due to access disruptions, ration reductions, and liquidity constraints. SO2 (nutrition/school feeding) reached 57.1% beneficiary achievement rate at 61.4% expenditure rate; delayed SNF clearances and late contribution timing drove underperformance. Annual funding was 86% of needs (down from 158% in 2024). The cumulative CSP funding gap stands at 31.0% since the 2019–2026 CSP commenced.^[11]

Funding Outlook:

• WFP's six-month net funding requirement (Jun–Nov 2026): USD 645.6M; minimum floor for hyper-prioritised operations: USD 460M. Only USD 183M in 2026 direct contributions received — a gap of USD 462.6M against the full requirement or USD 277M against the minimum floor. The food pipeline is projected to deplete from July 2026; CBT is approximately 50% funded from July onward.^[1]
• The 2026 Sudan HNRP (all partners) requires USD 2.9B; only 31% (USD 899M) received as of end-June 2026.^[12] The Sudan Humanitarian Fund has allocated USD 95M to cash-based assistance in 2026 — a sector-specific stream WFP should actively engage to supplement its CBT pipeline. Regional humanitarian appeals are funded at only 21–33% at mid-year 2026.^[12]
• UK FCDO country-by-country allocations (July 2026) confirm 30–90% bilateral cuts to major WFP operational countries; Sudan's exposure to this donor contraction is not separately quantified but is consistent with the structural funding environment.^[13] Ireland's Minister of State for International Development explicitly named Sudan famine conditions as a direct outcome of US and European aid cuts (July 2026).^[14]

In The News

• Sudan's Hunger Crisis: Displacement and Famine (news): Confirms hunger has overtaken violence as the primary displacement driver from Darfur — a qualitative shift that strengthens WFP's advocacy case for emergency food pipeline replenishment and signals worsening conditions in WFP's primary operational areas.^[15]
• El-Obeid Under RSF Pressure: Logistics Hub at Risk (news): Daily RSF drone strikes on El-Obeid's eastern supply road, fuel infrastructure, and water systems are placing WFP's central Kordofan logistics node — serving 100,000 registered IDPs in a city whose population has nearly doubled — at acute operational risk, with ICC and Genocide Watch atrocity warnings issued simultaneously.^[16]
• UK Aid Cuts: Country-by-Country Allocations Confirmed (Devex): FCDO confirms cuts of 30–90% to bilateral funding for major WFP operational countries by 2028–29, materialising a structural donor contraction that compounds Sudan's existing USD 277M minimum-floor funding gap.^[13]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Food Pipeline Depletion & Famine Deterioration	Pipeline depletes July 2026; USD 277M gap against minimum floor; rations already at 70% (IPC5) and 50% (IPC4); simultaneous ration and caseload cuts risk famine progression in 14 Darfur/Kordofan areas	1. Emergency donor mobilisation targeting USD 460M floor by August 2026. 2. Pre-position stocks before lean-season access windows close. 3. Trigger NFR escalation to RB and HQ.	Supply Chain; Programme; Donor Relations	RBN; HQ Resource Mobilisation	WFP Sudan Country Brief May 2026 (doc_id: 4217639); FEWS NET Sudan Outlook Jun 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4221082)	High
Operational	Kordofan Access Denial — Near-Zero Coverage	1% food assistance coverage across 81 mapped IDP sites; El-Obeid supply road targeted by RSF drone strikes; Farchana–West Kordofan corridor restored but unconfirmed; Greater Kordofan <15% of WFP caseload vs. 52% GAM in Um Baru	1. Sustain and expand Farchana corridor with joint Chad-Sudan security monitoring. 2. Commission updated SMART surveys in Um Baru and Kernoi (no data since December 2025). 3. Negotiate RSF checkpoint access via Chambers of Commerce.	Access & Humanitarian Liaison; Nutrition; Logistics	OCHA Access Monitoring; REACH; WFP Chad CO	REACH Kordofan IDP Site Mapping May 2026 (doc_id: 4220833); FEWS NET (doc_id: 4221082); news ref://40	High
Financial	CBT Purchasing Power Collapse	Local Food Basket +14% m/m, +49% y/y to SDG 2,762/unit; wages +3.7% m/m; Bankak cash-conversion fees up to 20%; CBT ~50% funded from July 2026; parallel market SDG 4,150/USD (-60% y/y)	1. Immediate CBT transfer value recalibration against May 2026 LFB cost. 2. Assess voucher/in-kind substitution where Bankak liquidity is constrained. 3. Monthly LFB and exchange rate monitoring as trigger for further review.	VAM; Programme (CBT); Finance	WFP VAM; Financial Service Providers	WFP Sudan Market Monitor June 2026 (doc_id: 4217107); WFP Country Brief (doc_id: 4217639)	High
Strategic	Systemic Funding Collapse — Structural Donor Contraction	HNRP 31% funded ($899M of $2.9B); USAID effectively eliminated; UK bilateral cuts 30–90% confirmed; WFP annual funding fell to 86% of needs in 2025 ACR; cumulative CSP gap 31.0% since 2019	1. Activate emergency supplementary funding request or NFR given Nyala cholera and Kordofan health collapse. 2. Pursue Sudan Humanitarian Fund CBT stream ($95M allocated). 3. Diversify donor outreach beyond traditional bilaterals.	Donor Relations; External Affairs; Programme	HQ; RBN; GFD	OCHA Sudan Update (doc_id: 4221008); ACR 2025; Devex ref://19	High
Operational	Telecoms Connectivity Loss Across 7 Hubs	USD 5.5M 2026 LTC Telecoms requirement 0% funded as of June 2026; ~1,700 humanitarian responders across 67 sites in 7 hubs at risk of communications loss; compromises safety reporting and supply chain coordination	1. Emergency resource mobilisation for USD 5.5M LTC requirement. 2. Engage ETC for contingency connectivity planning across 67 sites.	ICT/Telecoms; Safety & Security; Logistics	Emergency Telecommunications Cluster	LTC SitRep #41 June 2026 (doc_id: 4220473)	High
Strategic	El-Obeid Logistics Hub Under Active Threat	RSF drone strikes targeting El-Obeid's eastern supply road, fuel infrastructure, power, and water daily (July 2026); city population doubled to ~1M+ through IDP influx; WFP Country Director confirms ration-sharing indicating severe coverage gaps	1. Develop contingency routing plan for Darfur–Kordofan corridor bypassing El-Obeid. 2. Pre-position stocks in Kadugli and Um Durein as alternative hubs. 3. Elevate access advocacy with OCHA and UNSC.	Logistics; Security; Access	RBN; UNDSS; OCHA	news ref://40; news ref://49; news ref://55	High
Financial	Strait of Hormuz Commodity Shock	US-Iran conflict driving fertilizer +67% since May 2025 and fuel costs >2x in Darfur; Brent crude +9% in single day; downstream inflation of WFP procurement and transport costs in an already fuel-price-stressed operating environment	1. Model procurement cost impact on Jun–Nov 2026 pipeline assumptions. 2. Engage Logistics Cluster for alternative routing and regional procurement options. 3. Factor into CBT transfer value recalibration.	Supply Chain; Finance; VAM	Logistics Cluster; WFP Procurement	Mercy Corps Darfur Supply Chain Assessment Jul 2026; news ref://4; news ref://5	Medium
Operational	Health System Collapse & Cross-Border Disease Risk	80% of hospitals out of service in conflict-affected areas; Nyala cholera outbreak active; 864 households (2,655 individuals) arriving at Chadian border entry points 1–15 July 2026; 927,915 cumulative Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad since April 2023	1. Coordinate with WFP Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt COs on cross-border caseload projections. 2. Formally engage CIAUD/UNHCR/CRT joint border monitoring mechanism for data-sharing.	Programme; Partnerships; Medical	UNHCR; WHO; WFP Chad CO	Insecurity Insight (doc_id: 4221396); UNHCR P21 (doc_id: 4221829)	Medium

Note: More than 231 documents were reviewed from May–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• IPC Phase 5 figures are inconsistent: the WFP Sudan Country Brief (May 2026, doc_id: 4217639) and FEWS NET cite "over 5 million at IPC Phase 5"; UNICEF SitRep No. 43 (doc_id: 4220606) and the IPC quantitative feed both record approximately 134,808–135,000 at IPC Phase 5 for the observed Feb–May 2026 period — the WFP Country Brief figure likely conflates Phase 4 and Phase 5 or reflects the IPC Special Snapshot's distinct analytical window; the quantitative feed figure (134,808) is adopted as the more precisely sourced Phase 5 observation, while the "5 million+" figure is preserved for WFP's own advocacy communications context only.

Footnotes

1. WFP Sudan Country Brief — World Food Programme, May 2026 (doc_id: 4217639)
2. WFP Country Director field statement on El-Obeid — news ref://45, ref://49, July 2026
3. WFP Sudan Market Monitor — Logistics Cluster/WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4217107)
4. Emergency Agricultural Support in Sudan 2026–2028 [Advocacy Note] — FAO/WFP FSL Cluster, May 2026 (https://fscluster.org/sudan/document/emergency-agricultural-support-sudan)
5. Agriculture – Bridge from Emergency to Resilience — Solidarités International/FSC, May 2026 (https://fscluster.org/sudan/document/agriculture-bridge-emergency-resilience)
6. Sudan Food Security Outlook: Emergency and risk of Famine — FEWS NET, June 2026–January 2027 (doc_id: 4221082)
7. Sudan Emergency IDP Site Mapping: Kordofan Region — REACH Initiative, May 2026 (doc_id: 4220833)
8. Livestock in Emergencies Sudan Experience — FAO Sudan/FSC, May 2026 (https://fscluster.org/sudan/document/livestock-emergencies-sudan)
9. Agriculture and Agro-Processing in Sudan: Rapid Supply Chain Analysis — Mercy Corps/FSC, July 2026 (https://fscluster.org/sudan/document/agriculture-and-agro-processing-sudan)
10. Sudan conflict — LTC Situation Report (Telecoms Area) #41 — ETC/WFP, June 2026 (doc_id: 4220473)
11. WFP Sudan Annual Country Report (ACR) — World Food Programme, 2025
12. Sudan Humanitarian Update (May–June 2026) — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221008)
13. UK FCDO Aid Allocation Cuts — Devex, July 2026 (ref://19)
14. Ireland Minister of State statement on aid cuts and Sudan famine — news, July 2026 (ref://42)
15. Sudan hunger/displacement shift — news, July 2026 (ref://31)
16. El-Obeid RSF drone strikes and logistics threat — news, July 2026 (ref://40)