Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	32% CSP funding gap (2025 ACR); WFP Uganda CSP funding figures for 2026 not yet reported
Current Reach:	2.3 million beneficiaries (2025 ACR); 2026 current reach figure not available
Population IPC 3+:	473,368 people in IPC Phase 3+ (32% of analysed population, Mar–Jul 2026)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda faces compounding pressures: a 1.9-million-refugee protracted operation — sub-Saharan Africa's largest — layered onto a confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola transmission corridor from eastern DRC, a Karamoja food emergency, and severe CSP underfunding.^[1]
• As of 5 July 2026, Uganda has reported no new confirmed Ebola cases in the current reporting period; however, uncontrolled population mobility across the DRC–Uganda border sustains a high-probability reintroduction risk, and cross-border movement restrictions could disrupt WFP's cash/voucher modality in border-proximate settlements where market functionality is unverified.^[2]
• A confirmed acute food security emergency is unfolding in Karamoja: at least 16 drought-related deaths have been reported following near-total crop failure since April 2026, with severe seasonal rainfall deficits documented across 106 of 167 districts nationally — worst in Nakapiripirit (10-day rainfall at 14% of normal).^[3,4] WFP activated an anticipatory cash intervention for 6,000+ vulnerable households in Karamoja, funded by Ireland.^[5]
• The 2026–2030 CSP explicitly acknowledges that severe global funding contraction since 2025 risks life-saving gaps and commits to vulnerability-based targeting and diversified, multi-year financing as primary risk mitigations.^[6]

Vulnerability Scale:

• IPC analysis (April 2026, covering March–July 2026): 473,368 people in Phase 3+ Crisis or worse, including 41,259 in Phase 4 Emergency, across an analysed population of 1,496,117 — concentrated in Karamoja and northern Uganda.^[7]
• 62% of refugee households are food-insecure; 37% of Uganda's national population is undernourished; 45% of Karamoja households are acutely food-insecure (IPC Phase 3+); 1 in 4 children under 5 is stunted nationally.^[6]
• A 7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate at food and cash distribution points — equating to approximately 152,000 individuals not receiving scheduled assistance per cycle — represents an active protection and nutrition risk; root cause (absence, exclusion error, or seasonal movement) remains undiagnosed.^[8]
• News reporting (July 2026) indicates WFP's beneficiary coverage has been reduced by nearly 60% and acute child malnutrition has risen sharply in refugee settlements following programme closures, with simultaneous collapse of IRC health services and UNFPA midwifery coverage eliminating complementary buffers.^[9] This claim originates from a single news source and has not been corroborated by WFP internal documentation; it is flagged as unverified pending WFP SitRep confirmation but warrants immediate internal validation.

Trend Indicators:

• ACLED (July 2026): zero conflict events and zero fatalities recorded — a sharp drop from the June 2026 average of 46 events and 25 fatalities. This likely reflects a reporting lag rather than a genuine security improvement; the 7-month average remains 47 events/month.^[10]
• Food prices (April 2026, national average): white maize +21% month-on-month (UGX 1,812/kg); charcoal +31% (UGX 1,290/kg) — both trending in directions that erode refugee household purchasing power and increase WFP transfer value adequacy risk.^[10]
• The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has expanded to 1,830 confirmed cases and 648 deaths as of 11 July 2026, now across four DRC provinces including Haut-Uele (bordering Sudan and CAR), with confirmed cross-border transmission to Uganda — a material escalation since reporting period opened.^[11]

WFP Operations:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2.3 million beneficiaries, distributed 22,420 MT food and USD 30 million in cash-based transfers to refugees, treated 31,732 children and pregnant/breastfeeding women/girls for MAM, supported 76,609 smallholder farmers (USD 5.9 million revenue), and delivered school meals to 216,343 children across 320 Karamoja schools.^[1]
• Previously (2025 ACR): SO1 (crisis response) achieved a 203% beneficiary-achievement rate against plan at 81% funding rate, requiring progressive ration reductions; SO3 (nutrition) reached 52% beneficiary-achievement at 92% funding rate; SO4 (livelihoods) reached 210% beneficiary-achievement at 97% expenditure rate; SO2 (school meals/resilience) exceeded plan by 74% at full funding; SO6 was funded at only 30% of needs.^[1]
• Previously (May 2025): a prioritisation exercise removed approximately one million refugees from food assistance due to funding shortfalls; negative coping strategies among remaining caseload rose significantly post-prioritisation.^[1]
• Under the 2026–2030 CSP (total planned cost: USD 784.7 million for the five-year window), SO1 (USD 610.6 million) prioritises integrated food and nutrition assistance to refugees and crisis-affected Ugandans; SO2 (USD 50.5 million) targets resilience and livelihoods; SO3 (USD 123.6 million) covers capacity strengthening and logistics services.^[6]
• WFP Uganda operates the country's largest cash-based transfer programme; cross-border restrictions linked to the Ebola outbreak would require urgent modality reassessment in West Nile and border-proximate settlements where market functionality data is not currently available.^[2]

Funding Outlook:

• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP secured 88% of needs-based resources (including 2024 carryover); total expenditure was USD 120.27 million against USD 153.11 million available; the overall CSP funding gap was 32.29%.^[1]
• No WFP Uganda CSP funding figures, pipeline status, or funding runway data for 2026 are available — a critical information gap given the scale of operations. Escalation to Regional Bureau (RBN) and donors is required on an evidence basis.^[12]
• The multi-country Ebola preparedness architecture Uganda depends on is severely underfunded: IOM's Multi-Country EVD Preparedness and Response Plan has received only USD 20.8 million (37%) of USD 55.8 million requested, leaving a USD 35 million gap; UNHCR's Ebola Preparedness and Response Plan requires USD 14.08 million for July–November 2026 covering DRC and Uganda with current funding levels unreported.^[13,14]
• Global ODA contraction (23.1% in 2025 per Devex) and the USAID closure of 80% of its malaria awards signal a sustained donor environment risk that compounds Uganda's pre-existing 32% CSP gap.^[15]

In The News

• Uganda's refugee response in systemic collapse (news): Reporting indicates WFP coverage reduced by nearly 60% and acute child malnutrition rising sharply across settlements; not yet corroborated by WFP internal documentation — requires immediate SitRep validation.^[9]
• Ebola outbreak reaches 1,830 cases, 648 deaths — fourth province confirmed (news): Outbreak expanding into Haut-Uele (bordering Sudan and CAR) with confirmed Uganda cross-border transmission, materially raising reintroduction risk and potential for cross-border trade disruption affecting WFP market-based modalities.^[11]
• Karamoja food emergency: 16 drought deaths, government activates relief (news): Government of Uganda has activated emergency food relief in Karamoja following crop failure across at least five districts; WFP anticipatory action already triggered but scale of government response capacity unconfirmed.^[3]

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Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Operational	Ebola Reintroduction via DRC–Uganda Border	As of 5 July 2026 no new Uganda cases, but Bundibugyo outbreak has reached 1,830 cases/648 deaths across 4 DRC provinces with confirmed Uganda transmission; uncontrolled border mobility sustains high reintroduction probability. Cross-border restrictions would collapse cash/voucher modality in West Nile settlements.	1. Align contingency plans with WFP DRC sub-offices within 14 days. 2. Urgently assess market functionality in West Nile border districts; pre-position in-kind commodities. 3. Formally engage IOM-led Points of Entry TWG to integrate WFP logistics corridor data into EVD mobility mapping. 4. Assess Logistics Cluster activation for cold chain/transport support.	Supply Chain, Programme, Logistics	RBN, WFP DRC CO, Logistics Cluster, IOM	WHO EVD Sitrep 08, 5 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220977); news ref://32, 11 Jul 2026	High
Operational	Food Assistance Access Gap — 152,000 Individuals Unserved Per Cycle	7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate across ~2.03 million registered individuals; root cause (absence, exclusion error, seasonal movement) undiagnosed; constitutes active protection and nutrition risk.	1. Commission root-cause analysis disaggregated by settlement and demographic group within 30 days. 2. Implement rapid beneficiary verification sweep in highest-gap settlements.	Programme, M&E, Protection	UNHCR, RBN	UNHCR Uganda Overview, 30 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)	High
Financial	2026 CSP Funding Gap — No Pipeline Visibility	No Uganda CSP funding figures, donor contributions, pipeline status, or runway data available for 2026. Pre-existing 32% gap from 2025 ACR and May 2025 removal of ~1 million refugees from assistance establish a high-risk baseline.	1. Escalate Uganda funding status to RBN and priority donors immediately. 2. Ensure next country brief cycle includes CSP funding figures and pipeline status. 3. Develop minimum operating scenario (MOS) against 50% funding scenario.	Resource Mobilisation, Finance	RBN, Donors	WFP Uganda Country Brief, Aug 2025 (doc_id: 4177983); 2025 ACR	High
Strategic	Multi-Country EVD Preparedness Underfunding Undermining Uganda Readiness	IOM EVD plan: USD 35M gap (63% unfunded); UNHCR USD 14.08M requirement (Jul–Nov 2026) with funding levels unreported. WFP Uganda depends on this architecture for border screening, mobility tracking, and health system support protecting refugee settlements.	1. Do not assume full IOM/UNHCR preparedness capacity in WFP contingency planning. 2. Coordinate with UNHCR and IOM on joint resource mobilisation for the DRC–Uganda corridor. 3. Escalate cross-bureau coordination need to RBN and RWCA given tri-country risk corridor.	Partnerships, Programme, Logistics	RBN, RWCA, UNHCR, IOM	IOM Sitrep No. 8, 5 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220927); UNHCR External Update #3, 10 Jul 2026 (doc_id: 4220905)	High
Operational	Karamoja Food Emergency — Crop Failure and Drought Deaths	At least 16 drought-related deaths reported following near-total crop failure since April 2026 across at least 5 Karamoja districts; Nakapiripirit at 14% of normal 10-day rainfall. WFP anticipatory cash activated for 6,000+ households (Ireland-funded) but government relief capacity unconfirmed and IPC Phase 4 caseload in Karamoja is rising.	1. Validate anticipatory action coverage against full Karamoja Phase 3+ caseload. 2. Coordinate with Government of Uganda Office of the Prime Minister on emergency relief gap-filling. 3. Pre-position in-kind stocks given market stress (maize +21% m/m).	Programme, Supply Chain, Early Warning	RBN, Government of Uganda OPM, FAO	News ref://34 and ref://45, 11 Jul 2026; IPC Apr 2026; WFP VAM Apr 2026	High
Strategic	Refugee Caseload Expansion from DRC Displacement	2+ million forcibly displaced persons in Ebola-affected/high-risk eastern DRC zones; combined Ebola and conflict drivers (AFC/M23 active across North/South Kivu) could accelerate DRC refugee arrivals into Uganda's already 1.9-million-person operation without corresponding funding baseline.	1. Coordinate with UNHCR on DRC refugee arrival contingency scenarios. 2. Integrate caseload expansion scenario into next WFP Uganda country programme review. 3. Monitor UNHCR biometric registration rates at border entry points as early warning proxy.	Programme, Resource Mobilisation	RBN, UNHCR	UNHCR External Update #3 (doc_id: 4220905); WFP Uganda Country Brief (doc_id: 4177983); news ref://2, ref://43	Medium
Operational	CBT Transfer Value Erosion — Maize and Charcoal Price Spikes	White maize +21% and charcoal +31% month-on-month (April 2026 WFP VAM national average). Transfer values are not indexed to market prices; purchasing power erosion directly undermines food basket adequacy for cash-dependent refugee households, compounding existing 50%-ration cuts.	1. Conduct emergency transfer value review against current food basket cost in refugee settlements. 2. Adjust CBT values or supplement with in-kind if gap exceeds WFP threshold.	Programme, VAM	RBN, VAM	WFP VAM food price data, Apr 2026	Medium
Fiduciary	Beneficiary Data Integrity — Registration Discrepancy	WFP Uganda Country Brief (Aug 2025) records 1.8 million refugees; UNHCR Overview (Jun 2026) implies ~2.03 million in the assistance pipeline; denominators and reference dates differ. Unresolved discrepancy creates targeting and fiduciary risk (potential for double-counting or exclusion errors) and cannot be adjudicated from available substrate.	1. Reconcile WFP and UNHCR beneficiary registers through UNHCR biometric data-sharing arrangement referenced in CSP. 2. Ensure next country brief clarifies denominator (registered refugees vs. assistance-pipeline population).	M&E, Finance, Programme	UNHCR, RBN	UNHCR Uganda Overview Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219221); WFP Uganda Country Brief Aug 2025 (doc_id: 4177983)	Medium

Note: More than 157 documents were reviewed from the period ending 13 July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 13 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• Beneficiary coverage reduction: A news source (ref://41, July 2026) reports WFP Uganda's beneficiary coverage reduced by nearly 60% with acute malnutrition rising sharply — a materially more severe characterisation than the 2025 ACR's documented progressive ration reductions and May 2025 prioritisation exercise; the news figure is not corroborated by any WFP internal SitRep or Country Brief in the substrate and is treated as unverified pending internal validation. Additionally, the refugee caseload denominator differs between sources: WFP Uganda Country Brief (August 2025, doc_id: 4177983) states 1.8 million refugees; UNHCR Overview (30 June 2026, doc_id: 4219221) implies approximately 2.03 million individuals in the assistance pipeline — these figures reflect different denominators (registered refugees vs. assistance-registered population) and different reference dates; they must not be treated as equivalent.

Footnotes

1. WFP Uganda Annual Country Report (ACR) 2025 — World Food Programme, 2025
2. Ebola Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak: DRC/Uganda Weekly External Situation Report 08 — WHO, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220977)
3. News report: Karamoja food emergency, drought deaths — news, 11 July 2026 (ref://34)
4. WFP VAM Rainfall and Food Price Data — WFP, April 2026
5. News report: WFP Uganda anticipatory cash for Karamoja — news, July 2026 (ref://36)
6. WFP Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — World Food Programme, 2026
7. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis Uganda — IPC, April 2026 (period: March–July 2026)
8. Uganda Overview of Refugees and Asylum-Seekers as of 30 June 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)
9. News report: Uganda refugee response systemic collapse — news, 9 July 2026 (ref://41)
10. ACLED Uganda Conflict Data — ACLED via HDX, July 2026; WFP VAM Food Prices — WFP VAM via HDX, April 2026
11. News report: DRC Ebola 1,830 cases, 648 deaths, fourth province — news, 11 July 2026 (ref://32)
12. WFP Uganda Country Brief, August 2025 — World Food Programme, September 2026 [publication date] (doc_id: 4177983)
13. Multi-Country Bundibugyo EVD Outbreak Situation Report No. 8, 29 June–5 July 2026 — IOM, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220927)
14. Ebola Outbreak: DRC and Uganda External Update #3, 10 July 2026 — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4220905)
15. Devex reporting on USAID malaria award closures and ODA contraction — Devex, July 2026 (ref://22, ref://30)