Uganda Country Risk Update – 2026

Key Stats – Uganda 2026

Net Funding Requirements (NFRs):	USD 134M additional funding required (WFP estimate, Jul 2026)
Current Reach:	N/A — no current WFP Country Brief reach figure available; previously (Aug 2025 CB): 2.3M beneficiaries in 2025 (ACR)
Population IPC 3+:	473,368 Phase 3+ (observed, Mar–Jul 2026 period); projected 352,285 Phase 3+ (Aug 2026–Feb 2027)

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Executive Summary

Operational Context:

• Uganda's refugee food assistance operation is in acute, funding-driven coverage collapse. Major 2025 funding cuts reduced WFP refugee food assistance coverage from approximately 96% to approximately 37%, leaving 1.1 million refugees receiving zero WFP assistance — a 57% reduction since 2024.^[1]
• FEWS NET projects 2.5–2.99 million people in need of food assistance June 2026–January 2027, with needs peaking September–November 2026.^[1] This peak window coincides with Karamoja's lean season and the period of greatest refugee assistance gaps — a compounding double exposure for WFP programming.
• Karamoja is locked in IPC Crisis (Phase 3) through January 2027: crop losses of 50–70% driven by April–May dry spells and fall armyworm, with poor households comprising 64% of the area population holding extremely low livestock assets.^[1] Al Jazeera reporting (17 July 2026) confirms an acute malnutrition emergency is unfolding, with an estimated 120,000 malnourished children in Karamoja.^[2]
• A severe seasonal rainfall deficit — below 75% of normal in 96 of 167 districts as of dekad to 1 July 2026, with confirmed vegetation/NDVI stress in 21 districts — is compounding agricultural and pasture failure across Eastern, Western, and Northern Uganda.^[3]
• The DRC Ebola outbreak (Bundibugyo strain, 2,100+ confirmed cases as of mid-July 2026, third-largest on record) creates a direct cross-border risk. Mercy Corps documented two incidents at the DRC–Uganda border (Aru, Ituri) where Congolese travellers were detained under Ugandan sanitary measures, explicitly flagging the need for harmonised transfrontier messaging.^[4] IOM flow monitoring recorded approximately 337 of 11,245 observed movers crossing into Uganda to collect aid over a 10-day window in May 2026.^[5]

Vulnerability Scale:

• The June–July 2025 FSNA recorded 65.0% of refugee households food insecure (75.4% in West Nile; 47.0% in Southwest); 7.0% severely food insecure. Poor food consumption stood at 15.1%, up from 4.8% in 2024 — a tripling in one year.^[6]
• As of August 2025 (WFP Country Brief), 29% of children under 5 are stunted and 53% are anaemic among the refugee population, signalling a compounding nutrition emergency with permanent developmental consequences if unaddressed.^[7]
• IPC data (April 2026 analysis, Mar–Jul 2026 period): 473,368 people in Phase 3+ (32% of the 1,496,117 analysed population), including 41,259 in Phase 4 (Emergency). Projected Phase 3+ for August 2026–February 2027 is 352,285 — a reduction in the analysed population that should be read with caution, as the analysed population changed significantly between analyses (1,927,593 → 1,496,117).^[3] This IPC figure covers a subset of Uganda's total food-insecure population and does not capture the full refugee caseload.
• Uganda hosts over 1.9 million refugees (147,000 new arrivals in 2025 per ACR), primarily from South Sudan, DRC, and Burundi — sub-Saharan Africa's largest refugee population.^[7,8] Escalating conflict in South Sudan continues driving multi-directional displacement, with direct implications for refugee inflows.^[9]

Trend Indicators:

• Trajectory: Worsening. Food commodity prices are elevated: sorghum 25–26% above last year and five-year average; cassava (fresh) 35–38% above both benchmarks, with WFP VAM data showing cassava +15% month-on-month to May 2026.^[1,3] Leafy vegetables surged +139% month-on-month — an acute seasonal shock signal.
• Fuel inflation is accelerating: gasoline monthly inflation doubled from 8.7% to 16.6%; diesel from 10.8% to 21.7% (April to May 2026), directly eroding WFP commodity delivery capacity.^[1]
• ACLED data shows 0 conflict events in July 2026 (down from 27 events, 13 fatalities in June 2026), against a 13-month average of 28 events/month — the July reading may reflect reporting lag rather than genuine de-escalation.^[3]
• A 7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate at food and cash distribution points — equating to approximately 152,377 individuals — is unresolved, with root cause (exclusion error, absence, or seasonal movement) unspecified.^[10]

WFP Operations:

• Under the 2026–2030 CSP (total plan cost: USD 784.7M over the plan window), WFP operates three strategic outcomes: crisis food response for refugees and shock-affected Ugandans (SO1, USD 610.6M planned); resilience and livelihoods for refugees and host communities (SO2, USD 50.5M planned); and capacity strengthening for government systems including school meals, social protection, and disaster risk management (SO3, USD 123.6M planned).^[11]
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP reached 2.3 million total beneficiaries; distributed 22,420 MT food and USD 30M in cash-based transfers to refugees; treated MAM in 31,732 children and pregnant/breastfeeding women and girls; delivered school meals to 216,343 children across 320 Karamoja schools.^[8] SO1 achieved a 203% beneficiary-achievement rate against plan at 81% funding rate; SO3 underperformed at 52% beneficiary-achievement rate (MAM treatment) at 92% funding rate, likely reflecting a strategic transition from treatment to prevention.^[8]
• The May 2025 prioritisation exercise removed approximately one million refugees from WFP assistance — the operational turning point driving the current 37% coverage rate. Negative coping strategies among refugees rose significantly post-prioritisation (ACR 2025).^[8]
• WFP operates the largest cash-based transfer (CBT) programme in Uganda. Cross-border Ebola restrictions create a direct risk to CBT market-based modalities; country teams must assess market functionality in border-adjacent districts and consider in-kind modality shifts where markets have contracted.^[12]

Funding Outlook:

• WFP has estimated approximately USD 134 million in additional funding required to address refugee food assistance needs through the peak window (September–November 2026).^[1] No confirmed donor contribution figure is available to quantify the residual gap.
• Previously (2025 ACR): WFP secured 88% of its annual needs-based plan in 2025, with SO6 critically underfunded at 30% and SO1 at 81%. Overall 2025 expenditure was USD 120.27M against USD 153.11M available. The cumulative CSP funding gap since CSP start is 32.29%.^[8] These two frames (annual 88% and cumulative 32.29% gap) reflect different accounting periods and should not be combined.
• Global funding headwinds are severe. UK FCDO has confirmed 30–90% bilateral aid cuts across major WFP operational countries by 2028–29 (Devex, 16 July 2026).^[13] The 2024 refugee response plan faced a 54% budget shortfall; the broader 2025 aid-sector contraction is explicitly acknowledged in the CSP as a strategic risk requiring diversified, multi-year financing.^[11]
• The USD 134M ask is a quantified, actionable donor escalation vehicle — the Country Director should escalate through Regional Bureau channels without delay, framing against the September–November peak window.

In The News

• Severe Food Crisis Unfolds in Uganda's Karamoja Region (Al Jazeera): Confirmed crop failure, hunger-related deaths, and an estimated 120,000 malnourished children in Karamoja — directly corroborating FEWS NET's IPC Phase 3 assessment and elevating urgency for the September–November peak response window.^[2]
• Northern Uganda Hunger Crisis Classified as Humanitarian Emergency (news): Ugandan parliamentarians have formally classified Northern Uganda's drought-induced hunger crisis as a full-blown humanitarian emergency, with reported hunger-related fatalities — a political escalation that may open domestic resource mobilisation channels and increases reputational stakes for WFP response.^[14]
• UK FCDO Confirms 30–90% Bilateral Aid Cuts to Major WFP Countries (Devex): Confirmed reductions contradicting ministerial pledges to protect the most vulnerable; while Uganda is not explicitly named, the directional signal for the East Africa donor landscape is materially negative for WFP resource mobilisation.^[13]

Potential Risks

Category	Title	Description	Potential Mitigations	Functional Areas	Support Resources	Evidence	Seriousness
Financial	Refugee food assistance coverage collapse	1.1M refugees receiving zero WFP assistance; coverage at 37% vs 96% pre-2025; USD 134M additional funding required; needs peak Sep–Nov 2026	1. Immediate escalation of USD 134M ask to Regional Bureau and priority donors, framed against Sep–Nov deadline. 2. Prepare tiered prioritisation plan for constrained coverage scenarios.	Programme, Partnerships, Resource Mobilisation	Regional Bureau; donor governments; UNHCR	FEWS NET Uganda Food Security Outlook Jun 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4221071); WFP Uganda Country Brief Aug 2025 (doc_id: 4177983)	High
Operational	Acute food insecurity and nutrition deterioration among refugees	65.0% of refugee households food insecure (Jul 2025 FSNA); poor food consumption at 15.1% (up from 4.8%); 29% stunting and 53% anaemia among children under 5	1. Prioritise severely food insecure caseload (7.0% of refugee households) within constrained coverage. 2. Activate nutrition response monitoring in West Nile (75.4% food insecure).	Nutrition, VAM, Programme	UNHCR; MoH; nutrition cluster	Impact of Underfunding Indicators Tracking Matrix Uganda Q4 2025 (doc_id: 4216439); WFP Uganda Country Brief Aug 2025 (doc_id: 4177983)	High
Operational	Karamoja food crisis sustaining IPC Phase 3 through January 2027	Crop losses 50–70% from April–May dry spells and fall armyworm; 64% of population are poor households with minimal livestock assets; lean season peaks September–November	1. Ensure Karamoja programming is not deprioritised relative to refugee response scale-up during the Sep–Nov peak. 2. Integrate school meals pipeline continuity planning for 320 schools.	Programme, Logistics, SO2/SO3	FAO; UNICEF; district disaster management committees	FEWS NET Uganda Outlook Jun 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4221071); Al Jazeera 17 Jul 2026 (ref://13)	High
Operational	Elevated transport and commodity costs eroding delivery capacity	Gasoline monthly inflation 16.6%; diesel 21.7% (Apr–May 2026); sorghum 25–26% above benchmarks; cassava 35–38% above benchmarks; leafy vegetables +139% m-o-m	1. Reassess commodity and transport cost assumptions in operational planning. 2. Explore local/regional procurement options to reduce fuel-cost exposure.	Logistics, Supply Chain, Finance	WFP Supply Chain; VAM	FEWS NET Uganda Outlook Jun 2026–Jan 2027 (doc_id: 4221071); WFP VAM HDX May 2026	Medium
Operational	Cross-border Ebola coordination gap at DRC–Uganda border	Two DRC–Uganda border incidents (Aru, Ituri) involving sanitary measure enforcement; contradictory interpretations risk community distrust; ~337 persons crossed border to collect aid over 10-day window; cash modalities at risk if border markets contract	1. Engage in transfrontier messaging harmonisation between DRC and Ugandan border authorities. 2. Urgently assess market functionality in border-adjacent districts; prepare modality shift to in-kind if needed.	Programme, Access, Health/Safety	WHO; Mercy Corps; UNHCR; Logistics Cluster	Mercy Corps CPT Analysis 16 May–1 Jul 2026 (doc_ids: 4221754, 4221755); IOM Flow Monitoring May 2026 (doc_id: 4213918)	Medium
Fiduciary	Non-delivery and no-show at distribution points masking excluded populations	7.5% non-delivery/no-show rate (~152,377 individuals per cycle) with root cause unspecified — cannot distinguish exclusion errors from seasonal absence	1. Commission root-cause analysis of non-delivery rate within 60 days, disaggregated by location and reason. 2. Cross-check against UNHCR biometric data to identify systematic exclusion errors.	M&E, Programme, Accountability	UNHCR; community feedback mechanisms	UNHCR Uganda Overview of Refugees 30 Jun 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)	Medium
Strategic	Structural global funding contraction threatening CSP viability	UK bilateral aid cuts of 30–90% confirmed; USAID closure; cumulative CSP funding gap 32.29% since plan start; 2024 refugee response faced 54% budget shortfall; CSP explicitly flags funding volatility as a strategic risk	1. Diversify funding base through multi-year financing agreements with non-traditional donors. 2. Accelerate government-systems handover under SO3 to reduce WFP direct-delivery cost exposure.	Partnerships, Strategy, Senior Management	Regional Bureau; Government of Uganda; World Bank	CSP 2026–2030 (doc_id: CSP); ACR 2025 (doc_id: ACR); Devex 16 Jul 2026 (ref://8)	High

Note: More than 182 documents were reviewed from the period August 2025–July 2026. The intelligence is current as of 20 July 2026.

Discrepancies & Data Integrity:

• The WFP Uganda Country Brief (August 2025, doc_id: 4177983) states Uganda hosts "over 1.8 million refugees," while the UNHCR Overview (30 June 2026, doc_id: 4219221) implies a total registered population of approximately 2.03 million (used as the denominator for the 7.5% non-delivery calculation), and the 2025 ACR and CSP reference "over 1.9 million refugees" with 147,000 new arrivals in 2025 — these figures are consistent with progressive registration growth across different reporting dates and do not constitute a direct conflict, but all refugee population figures cited in this brief should be understood as at-reference-date estimates rather than a single authoritative stock.

Footnotes

1. Uganda Food Security Outlook: Needs to remain high among refugees and poor households in Karamoja, June 2026–January 2027 — FEWS NET, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221071)
2. Al Jazeera reporting on Karamoja food crisis — Al Jazeera, 17 July 2026 (ref://13)
3. ACLED, WFP VAM HDX food prices, IPC Acute Food Insecurity data — multiple agencies, as of May–July 2026
4. Analysis of Ebola-related incidents: CPT signals and implications (16 May–1 July 2026) — Mercy Corps, July 2026 (doc_ids: 4221754, 4221755)
5. Uganda — Flow Monitoring – Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak (15–24 May 2026) — IOM, May 2026 (doc_id: 4213918)
6. Impact of Underfunding Indicators Tracking Matrix – Uganda – Q4 2025 — UNHCR, June 2026 (doc_id: 4216439)
7. WFP Uganda Country Brief, August 2025 — WFP, September 2025 (doc_id: 4177983)
8. WFP Uganda Annual Country Review (ACR) 2025 — WFP, 2025
9. South Sudan Humanitarian Update (as of 17 July 2026) — OCHA, July 2026 (doc_id: 4221941)
10. Uganda — Overview of Refugees and Asylum-Seekers (as of 30 June 2026) — UNHCR, July 2026 (doc_id: 4219221)
11. WFP Uganda Country Strategic Plan 2026–2030 — WFP, 2026
12. WFP Response to the Ebola Outbreak – External Situation Report (26 June 2026) — WFP, July 2026 (doc_id: 4218743)
13. Devex reporting on UK FCDO bilateral aid cuts — Devex, 16 July 2026 (ref://8)
14. Northern Uganda hunger crisis reporting — news, 17 July 2026 (ref://42)