Bundibugyo Ebola expanding across DRC border corridors as Uganda closes its outbreak and cross-border re-introduction risk persists
COD · UGA · RWA · BDI · TZA
Direction: escalating · Severity: critical (IPC P4 present in affected zones; week 3 at this level)
Uganda declared its Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak ended on 29 July 2026 following a 42-day no-case window at 20 confirmed cases, reducing one transmission pathway. The DRC outbreak, however, has expanded from 46 health zones on 19 July to 47 per the WFP DRC country assessment; Al Jazeera and Radio Okapi cite 49 health zones and 1,556 deaths as of 31 July — figures the WFP assessment notes as likely reflecting real outbreak growth rather than a data conflict, though they are not yet corroborated through WFP internal reporting of equivalent date. WFP has no operational presence in Tshopo or Haut-Uélé, both newly affected, and the Haut-Uélé supply corridor to Uganda remains fully closed per the DRC assessment. Cross-border re-introduction risk to Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania persists: the WFP Rwanda assessment notes one Kigali preparedness site coordinating with government and WHO, while WFP is pre-positioning Ebola readiness stocks across Burundi and Rwanda on internal advance financing with no confirmed external donor coverage — a fiduciary exposure requiring urgent resolution.
Watchpoints:
- WHO or IOM publishes a situation report confirming Bundibugyo Ebola in a province beyond Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, Tshopo, or Haut-Uélé — the threshold for a formal multi-country Flash Appeal
- WFP confirms or denies Logistics Cluster activation for cold-chain and transport support through Kisangani
- EVD-linked border restrictions at DRC–Uganda, DRC–Rwanda, or DRC–Burundi crossings formally extended or lifted, determining whether road corridors serving WFP staging hubs remain viable
August–September pipeline breaks across Horn and Great Lakes as donor contributions fail to materialise before hard deadlines
BDI · RWA · SOM · DJI · SSD · ETH
Direction: escalating · Severity: critical (IPC P4–P5 present across caseloads; week 3 at this level)
Per the WFP Burundi country assessment, refugee food assistance is funded only through August 2026 against a six-month requirement of USD 53M with USD 0 confirmed; rations for over 140,000 Congolese refugees are already at 50–75% of minimum daily requirements. The WFP Rwanda assessment places a complete pipeline break in August 2026, with USD 10.7M urgently needed and zero confirmed external funding, while 76% of the refugee population is now classified as highly vulnerable — up from 40% in mid-2024 — following 15 months of 50% ration cuts. In Somalia, per the WFP Somalia assessment, only USD 1.42M of a USD 12M Bay–Bakool food security requirement is available, with MAM treatment commodities for 19,128 children under five projected to run out in September 2026 in a district already at IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5. Djibouti's H2 2026 requirement stands at USD 13.0M against USD 1.88M confirmed, with in-kind general food assistance to Ali Addeh and Holl-Holl already suspended due to maritime chokepoint disruption.
Watchpoints:
- WFP Burundi confirms or fails to confirm USD 13.8M by early August — the binary determining whether distributions to over 140,000 refugees halt mid-August
- WFP Somalia publishes confirmed emergency donor contributions against the USD 165M H2 2026 gap before end-August, with September 2026 as the hard MAM pipeline deadline for Bay–Bakool
- Djibouti pipeline break status confirmed via next WFP country brief, observable against USD 1.88M on hand versus USD 13.0M H2 requirement
Sudan food pipeline below minimum floor as Adre crossing expiry and RSF drone strikes on El-Obeid compress the Darfur corridor
SDN · ETH
Direction: escalating · Severity: critical (IPC P5 Famine confirmed; week 3 at this level)
Per the WFP Sudan country assessment, direct contributions received as of 17 July 2026 stand at USD 199M against a USD 656M July–December 2026 requirement, leaving a USD 457M gap; rations are already cut to 70% for IPC Phase 5 areas and 50% for Phase 4 areas. Al Jazeera reports a Sudanese army drone strike on a traditional court in RSF-controlled North Darfur killed at least 35 civilians on 2 August 2026, deepening the protection crisis in a region the UN has characterised as experiencing genocide-level conditions. The Adre crossing — through which WFP reached 1.9 million people in Darfur in June 2026 — is authorised only through 30 September 2026 with no post-September contingency corridor documented. Separately, renewed TPLF-federal heavy-weapons fighting at Shererina in western Tigray on 2 August 2026, per Al Jazeera, risks disrupting WFP access corridors into a region where 95% of assessed IDP sites already report insufficient food assistance.
Watchpoints:
- RSF forces enter or encircle El-Obeid city centre — observable via ACLED event data or OCHA access snapshot — which would sever the primary Khartoum–Darfur supply corridor
- Adre crossing extension beyond 30 September 2026 confirmed or denied by Chad authorities, determining whether the 1.9 million-person Darfur pipeline has a post-September corridor
- Tigray fighting escalates beyond the 2 August Shererina engagement, triggering formal WFP access suspension on northern Ethiopia corridors
Other notable
- South Sudan: Conflict fatalities rose 91% month-on-month in July 2026; operations remain suspended in Baliet and Ulang, leaving over 70,000 people unserved in famine-risk counties.
- Somalia: Bay–Bakool MAM pipeline break projected September 2026; Buur Hakaba confirmed at IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5 with GAM at 37.1%.
- Mozambique: Current resources sustain the 425,000-person Cabo Delgado scale-up only through December 2026; pipeline break confirmed from January 2027 absent new contributions.
- Malawi: Dzaleka cash assistance for over 62,000 refugees faces complete suspension by September 2026 without USD 6.8M; school feeding for 594,000 learners is at risk from the same month.
- Uganda: Karamoja has deteriorated into a confirmed IPC Crisis emergency with at least 19 hunger-related deaths, compounding the structural refugee ration shortfall across 13 settlements.
- Tanzania: All 131,034 refugees consolidated at single-site Nyarugusu following Nduta closure; diesel prices up 60% since February 2026 are eroding the USD 6.84M six-month funding envelope.
- Angola: DRC–Angola corridor faces compounding pressure from the active Ebola outbreak and cholera epidemic, sustaining refugee push factors toward Lóvua where rations remain at 50% of daily kilocalorie requirements.
- Zimbabwe: A large-scale returnee influx from South Africa has placed food stocks at Beitbridge Reception Center under pressure, with 63% of assessed returnees reporting hunger and no confirmed WFP emergency mechanism.
- Zambia: Mantapala refugee cash assistance faces a hard October 2026 funding cliff requiring USD 3.52M; M23 expansion risk toward Katanga could expand the caseload at the worst moment.
- Eritrea: No WFP operational data exists in the current substrate; lumpy skin disease is active across four regions threatening over 530,000 cattle, with no food security caseload quantifiable.
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